Table of contents:
1. Large token unlocking data this week;
2. Overview of the crypto market, a quick read on the weekly performance of popular cryptocurrencies and sector fund flows;
3. Bitcoin spot #etf dynamics;
4. #BTC interpretation of liquidation map data;
5. Key macro events of the week and key previews for the crypto market.
1. Large token unlocking data this week;
This week, multiple tokens will undergo one-time unlocking. The list is sorted by unlocking value as follows:
#sui , OMNI, #OP and other tokens will undergo significant unlocking next week, among which:
Sui (SUI) will unlock approximately 74 million tokens at 8 AM on May 1, accounting for 2.28% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $267 million;
Omni Network (OMNI) will unlock approximately 15.98 million tokens at 7 PM on May 2, accounting for 83.51% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $42.2 million;
Optimism (OP) will unlock approximately 31.34 million tokens at 8 AM on April 30, accounting for 1.89% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $25.7 million;
Kamino (KMNO) will unlock approximately 229 million tokens at 8 PM on April 30, accounting for 16.98% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $14.5 million;
Ethena (ENA) will unlock approximately 40.63 million tokens at 3 PM on May 2, accounting for 0.73% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $14.2 million;
ZetaChain (ZETA) will unlock approximately 44.26 million tokens at 8 AM on May 1, accounting for 5.67% of the current circulation, valued at approximately $11.3 million.
The unlocking situations of these projects may have varying degrees of impact on the related markets. The above times are in UTC+8, and the data is from CoinAnk.
We believe that the impact of concentrated token unlocking events this week on the market can be interpreted from the perspectives of supply-demand dynamics and project background. SUI leads with an unlocking scale of $267 million, but only accounts for 2.28% of the circulation, making short-term selling pressure relatively controllable. Historical data shows that SUI has seen little price volatility after multiple large unlocks, possibly because the project team hedges risks in advance through ecosystem cooperation (such as integrating USDC) and marketing strategies. However, OMNI's unlocking ratio is as high as 83.51%, and a sudden increase in circulation may trigger severe volatility, necessitating caution against concentrated selling by holders.
Tokens like OP, ENA, etc., have unlocking ratios below 5%, which is within the normal release rhythm. Combining with past cases (such as OP showing strong price resilience after multiple unlocks in 2024), such low ratio unlocks have limited impact on the market, but attention should be paid to market sentiment during the same period. Notably, the unlocking ratios for ZETA and KMNO are 5.67% and 16.98%, respectively; although the absolute values are not high, if project ecosystem progress lags, it may amplify negative effects.
From a strategic perspective, project teams tend to release positive information before unlocking, such as SUI's recent advancement in gaming hardware SUIPlay0XI and introduction of institutional cooperation, or preparing to alleviate selling pressure. Additionally, high circulation projects (such as SUI with over 270 million in current circulation) have good market depth and strong liquidity buffer capabilities, while emerging projects (such as OMNI) are more susceptible to shocks due to insufficient liquidity.
Therefore, investors need to differentiate their assessments: mainstream tokens like SUI have controllable short-term risks, but attention should be paid to subsequent unlocking rhythms; projects with high unlocking ratios like OMNI show prominent volatility risks; OP, ENA, etc., may continue with stable trends. It is recommended to dynamically adjust strategies by combining project fundamentals and on-chain data (such as changes in whale holdings) post-unlocking.
2. Overview of the crypto market, a quick read on the weekly performance of popular cryptocurrencies and sector fund flows
CoinAnk data shows that in the past week, the crypto market, categorized by concept sectors, saw net inflows in sectors such as Avalanche ecosystem, Optimism ecosystem, Arbitrum ecosystem, Solana ecosystem, #BSC , Ethereum ecosystem, and Launchpool.
In the past 7 days, the cryptocurrency price increase ranking is as follows (selected from the top 500 by market capitalization), with tokens such as PENGU, MYRO, VIRTUAL, ARC, and MICHI showing relatively strong gains; strong coins should continue to be prioritized for trading opportunities this week.
3. Bitcoin spot ETF capital dynamics.
CoinAnk data shows that last week the US Bitcoin spot ETF had a cumulative net inflow of $3.0629 billion, with net inflow status for five trading days. Nearly 16 months after the launch of the spot Bitcoin ETF, Grayscale's GBTC still dominates in terms of income generation, with implied annual income exceeding $268 million, surpassing the total income of all other Bitcoin ETFs ($211 million).
From a researcher's perspective, we believe that the recent capital flow of US Bitcoin spot ETFs shows significant divergence. Data shows that in the last week (ending April 28, 2025), Bitcoin spot ETFs had a cumulative net inflow of $3.06 billion, maintaining net inflows for five consecutive trading days, indicating that the market's demand for allocation to crypto assets remains resilient. However, Grayscale's GBTC has demonstrated a unique market position: despite its funds being in a long-term net outflow state (historically over $20 billion in cumulative outflows), its implied annual income still reaches $268 million, surpassing the total income of all other Bitcoin ETFs ($211 million), primarily due to its large existing scale and high fee structure.
From a competitive landscape perspective, emerging ETFs like BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC continue to attract incremental capital with low fee strategies; for example, IBIT once set a weekly record with a net inflow of $2.15 billion. However, Grayscale, through brand accumulation and first-mover advantage, still occupies a dominant position in income generation. This 'existing scale generates income, incremental competition diverts funds' dual-track phenomenon reflects the transition of the ETF market from early monopoly to diversified competition. It is noteworthy that although GBTC has long faced capital outflow pressure, recent data shows that its daily net outflow has decreased from tens of millions to millions, and there have even been occasional net inflows, suggesting that market sentiment may be marginally improving.
From a macro perspective, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs has exceeded $100 billion, accounting for over 5% of Bitcoin's total market value, and its capital flows have become an important factor affecting price volatility. Researchers believe that the current structural contradictions in the ETF market (income concentration and capital dispersion) may drive product innovation, such as Grayscale launching a mini BTC ETF to balance fees and scale, while institutions like BlackRock continue to consolidate market share through sustained inflows. Future attention should be paid to the rebalancing effect of regulatory policy changes and institutional investor behavior on capital flows.
4. BTC liquidation map data.
CoinAnk liquidation map data shows that if BTC breaks $99,000, the cumulative short liquidation intensity on mainstream CEX will reach $3.925 billion. Conversely, if Bitcoin drops below $90,000, the cumulative long liquidation intensity on mainstream CEX will reach $5.432 billion.
We believe that the current long and short dispute over Bitcoin prices near critical thresholds exhibits a significant asymmetric risk structure. If BTC breaks through $99,000, it may trigger $3.925 billion in short liquidations, stemming from the concentration of stop-losses among numerous highly leveraged short positions when prices rise, creating a 'short squeeze' effect. Such chain liquidations may exacerbate liquidity volatility and push prices further through resistance levels. Conversely, if it drops below $90,000, the liquidation pressure from long positions could release up to $5.432 billion, reflecting the market's vulnerability under the expectation of a pullback, potentially triggering a spiral decline of long liquidation.
Data from different periods indicate that the liquidation threshold and intensity dynamically change with market leverage levels and position structures. For example, data from February 2025 shows that a drop below $95,000 only triggered $229 million in long liquidations, but by April of the same year, the strength at the same threshold had skyrocketed to several billion dollars, indicating that market risk exposure significantly amplifies during bull markets. It should be noted that the liquidation chart reflects relative strength rather than absolute amounts; its essence is an assessment of the probability of liquidity shocks when prices reach certain areas. The current stark disparity between long and short liquidation intensity ($5.432 billion vs. $3.925 billion) suggests that the market is more sensitive to pricing downside risks, which may relate to recent excessive crowding of bullish positions in the derivatives market. This nonlinear liquidation pressure may cause prices to exhibit sharp fluctuations near critical levels, and investors should be wary of extreme conditions triggered by liquidity exhaustion.
5. Key macro events of the week and key previews for the crypto market.
April 28, Monday
Canada holds federal elections
April 30, Wednesday
1. US March core PCE price index year-on-year (22:00)
2. The World Gold Council publishes the first quarter (gold demand trends) report
May 1, Thursday
1. Number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week (20:30)
2. US April ISM manufacturing PMI (22:00)
3. Bank of Japan announces interest rate decision and economic outlook
May 2, Friday
1. US April unemployment rate (20:30)
2. US April seasonally adjusted non-farm employment population (20:30)
We believe that the core contradiction in the crypto market this week is concentrated on the linkage effect between US economic data and policy games. The non-farm employment and unemployment rate data on Friday will become a key guide for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy expectations: if the data is weak (such as new jobs below expectations or rising unemployment rates), it may strengthen market bets on four interest rate cuts within the year, thus boosting risk assets; conversely, if the data is strong, it will exacerbate concerns about the duration of high interest rates, suppressing market sentiment. Currently, BTC implied volatility has dropped to a low of 45%, indicating a lack of consensus among investors on short-term direction, but this also sets the stage for a volatility rebound after data release.
It is worth noting that Trump's policies continue to have a persistent disruptive effect on the market. Previously, his tariff policies caused significant volatility in crypto assets (with BTC's decline significantly greater than ETH's), while recent easing of rhetoric has triggered a reversal in the market. This policy uncertainty has strengthened the correlation between crypto assets and traditional risk assets, especially in the context of weak US stocks but no signs of recession, where funds may accelerate rotation between equity and debt markets and the crypto market.
The specific impact paths on the crypto market may exhibit bidirectional volatility characteristics: on one hand, expectations for interest rate cuts driven by weak economic data may push BTC to test the psychological level of $100,000; on the other hand, the resilience of the employment market may continue the current oscillation pattern. In the medium term, attention should be paid to potential black swan events in policy (such as new tariff measures) and the repeated adjustments of liquidity expectations. Investors are advised to focus on changes in hedging demand in the options market and the sustainability of ETF capital inflows, as these two indicators will reflect institutional assessments of systemic risks.
