This data is from the model that CEO(ju) presented as evidence that the cycle had ended.
But doesn't something feel a little off? No — it feels very different.
As I mentioned in my book as well, the fatal flaw of cycle data models based on long-term moving averages is that they cannot adapt to sudden, sharp changes in the market.
And yes — that's exactly the kind of situation we're in right now.
The Market Cap data, which forms the basis of the cycle model, is surging again. Yet the model fails to quickly reflect these changes.
Other cycle-based models have the same issue.
In reality, useful trading signals must leave traces before the actual move happens — not after.
If a trend reversal occurs here, the signal would only appear after Bitcoin has already surpassed its previous all-time high.
From a trading perspective, would you really want to start thinking about buying after the price has already made a new peak?
To address this critical flaw, I adjusted the model’s time series to respond more quickly.
And what do we see? The "Bear Market" zone was not a sell-off signal — it was a buying opportunity during an ongoing upward cycle (highlighted by the blue box).
If we were truly entering a major downtrend cycle now, we should be seeing a movement similar to the one inside the orange box.
But right now, the structure looks much more like the 2017 cycle.
And the final stage of this cycle is still ahead of us.
Written by Mignolet
