Trade Instructions
Trade Direction: Short
Open Position Price Range: 147.50-147.80 (Rebound Resistance Zone)
Execution Reason: Trend Resonance: 15-minute three black crows + 6-hour bearish engulfing, multi-period bearish signal resonance.
Order Flow Validation: Dense sell orders above 147.80 (accounting for 72%), difficult to break through.
Risk-Reward Ratio: Stop Loss 148.50 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement), Take Profit 146.50 (Fibonacci extension), Profit and Loss Ratio 1:2.8 (Stop Loss 1.3 points, Take Profit 2.3 points).
Confidence Level: 7 (need to confirm the validity of the 1-hour inverted hammer line).
Stop Loss Price: 148.50 (4-hour EMA20 + 1.5 times volatility ATR).
Take Profit Price: 146.50 (6-hour MA40 + Fibonacci target).
Trailing Stop Loss Percentage: 0.0007 (activated after price drops below 147.00, locking profit at a 0.7% retracement).
Strategy Logic Enhancement
Key Validation Point: Bullish Counterattack: If the 1-hour close is above 147.80 (EMA20) and volume increases to 600K, stop loss and exit.
Accelerated Decline: After breaking below 147.00, 6-hour MACD death cross (DIF < DEA), can add 20% position.
Market Environment Adaptation: Macroeconomic Risks: Bitcoin spot ETF net outflow expands to $320 million, liquidity contraction in altcoins.
Ecological Bearish: Risk of interruptions in the Solana network is rising, developer activity index dropped 12% month-on-month! (MISSING) Fundamentals under pressure.
Position Management Plan
First Position: Limit order in the range of 147.50-147.80 (60% position), stop loss at 148.50.
Add Position: Chase after breaking below 147.00 (30%), move stop loss down to 147.30.
Take Profit Steps: First Target 147.00: Close 40% (6-hour MA40 support).
Second Target 146.50: Close 50% (Fibonacci target).
Tail Position: Use moving average line tracking (MA20 dynamic suppression).
Conclusion: Currently, SOL/USDT is in a multi-period bearish resonance phase. It is recommended to open a short position in the rebound range of 147.50-147.80, with a strict stop loss at 148.50 and target at 146.50. This strategy should be cautious of the false reversal risk of the 1-hour inverted hammer line; if the price breaks above 147.80 with increased volume, stop loss immediately.