Market panorama: Institutional entry, policy easing, and capital surge.
The cryptocurrency market in April 2025 resembles a brewing storm—Bitcoin (BTC) firmly stands at $93,000, Ethereum (ETH) aims to break the $2,000 mark after surpassing $1,800, Solana (SOL) surges to $150 as a 'dark horse' of public chains, while the Meme coin sector experiences speculative frenzy with daily gains exceeding 100%.
Key driving force:
Institutional capital influx: Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of over $442 million in a single day, BlackRock ETF's scale surpassed $25 billion, and traditional capital is accelerating its entry.
Interest rate cut expectations heat up: The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in June rises to 80%, with liquidity easing expectations driving up risk asset valuations.
Signal of regulatory easing: The U.S. Treasury expresses intent to review blockchain regulatory barriers, Hong Kong approves cryptocurrency exchanges to offer staking services, significantly improving policy friendliness.
Mainstream coin analysis: Technical and fundamental resonance.
Bitcoin (BTC): After stabilizing at $93,000, is $100,000 just the starting point?
Technical aspect: Daily MACD golden cross, RSI rebounds to 68, stabilizing above the 10-day moving average ($93,000), breaking the $97,000 resistance will open up a $100,000 upward channel.
On-chain signals: Short-term holder cost line rises to $93,000, long-term whale accounts continue to increase, MicroStrategy's holdings exceed 530,000 BTC, with an average price of $67,485.
Strategy suggestion: If it retraces to the $89,000-$90,000 range, consider accumulating in batches; if it breaks $97,000, then chase the upward trend.
Ethereum (ETH): Layer 2 explosion and ETF expectations drive growth.
Ecosystem explosion: Optimism (OP) and Arbitrum (ARB) saw weekly gains exceeding 10%, with Layer 2 trading volume accounting for 60% of the entire network.
Derivatives heat: ETH futures open interest breaks $21 billion, whale long-to-short ratio reaches 2.37:1, indicating strong bullish sentiment.
Risk points: If it fails to stabilize above $1,800, it may retreat to the $1,750 support level.
Solana (SOL): Institutional grabbing + ecosystem explosion = next stop $180?
Fundamentals: Solana's on-chain DEX trading volume rebounds, projects like DARK see daily gains exceeding 30%, TVL surpasses $8.5 billion.
Technical aspect: Breakthrough of the key resistance at $150, MACD shows bullish golden cross; if it stabilizes above $152, the target moves to $180.
Catalyst: Solana's ETF application enters SEC review phase; if approved, it may trigger a wave of institutional buying.
Meme coin frenzy: A wealth game under high volatility.
Current hotspots:
Fartcoin (FART): Surged 126% in two weeks, market cap exceeds $1.1 billion, technical RSI approaching overbought; beware of short-term correction.
Italian Brainrot (ITALIANROT): 24-hour increase of 61%, community hype + exchange listing expectations drive the speculative frenzy.
SUI: Crazy surge of 54% in three days, ecosystem matrix improves, total network contract holdings surge to $1.1 billion, the only project among the top 20 by market cap to break historical pressure.
Speculative risk warning:
Over 90% of Meme coins lack real use cases, with high price volatility; strict stop-loss is necessary (recommended position ≤ 5%).
Pay attention to exchange dynamics: New coins on Binance and Coinbase often trigger short-term surges, but beware of the 'pump and dump' trap.
Economic perspective: Liquidity, sentiment, and cyclical patterns.
Liquidity drive: Global M2 money supply rebounds, the Federal Reserve slows down quantitative tightening (QT), and funds shift from government bonds to high-risk assets.
Market sentiment indicator: The Crypto Fear and Greed Index rises to 63, with accelerated inflow into altcoins, but BTC's market share remains high (64.2%), indicating that the 'altseason' has not fully started.
Cycle规律: Historical data shows that after Bitcoin breaks key resistance, there is over a 70% chance of reaching a new high within 150 days; we are currently in a 'golden window'.
Action checklist for ordinary investors.
Mainstream coin allocation: BTC (50%), ETH (30%), SOL (20%), stop loss if it breaks support.
Meme coin speculation: Select popular projects on exchanges (like SUI, FART), quick in and out, with profit targets set at 20%-50%.
Risk hedging: Hold 10% in stablecoins to cope with market volatility before the Federal Reserve's rate cut in June.
Conclusion:
The bull market of 2025 has shifted from 'under the radar' to 'clear-cut advance', but in the revelry, one must remember—trend is friend, leverage is enemy. Ordinary investors should focus on mainstream coins, cautiously participate in Meme speculation, and use discipline to overcome human nature to navigate the waves of wealth in the crypto world.
(Risk warning: This article does not constitute investment advice, the market carries risks, and decisions should be made independently.)
