1 Yesterday, ETF inflows were over 400 million again, and the price of Bitcoin hasn't changed much... It won't go up... This only indicates that previously, the funds of short-term traders at 80K3~80K5 are slowly taking profits and leaving... Therefore, from 91600 to 94000 yesterday, the spot CVD has been slightly declining, with selling pressure dominant...

However, the price isn't going down... After a large order of 3000 Bitcoin was executed in the contract market early this morning, it also hit the liquidity for short positions around 94000 as expected... But after injecting liquidity above, it only went down to 92800?? Really can't drop a bit...

2 Observing these past few days, the price seems stuck between 92000-93000 and won't go down. Micron strategy might be accumulating again... Let's see on Monday if it's correct...

3 On the macro news front, although we denied negotiating with Old Mei during the day yesterday, news came out again at midnight saying we will add some US products to the tariff exemption list... This indicates that both sides have started to negotiate gradually, releasing positive signals. Therefore, US stock index futures have been trending upwards... This is probably also the reason why Bitcoin can't drop...

4 On the news front today, the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index and inflation forecast will have some fluctuations in the evening... If the final value differs significantly from the previous expected initial value... Meanwhile, the new SEC chairman will speak at a cryptocurrency roundtable meeting early this morning... This may also release potential positive signals (actually, some foundational regulatory talks were already mentioned upon taking office... If the same rhetoric is repeated, then there will be no change)

5 From the liquidity perspective, the shorts above 94K are indeed being liquidated in batches, with more to follow... The stubborn shorts have not exited... The longs are also very aggressive, with the liquidity for long positions at 91K1~91K2, 88K8~89K9, and 85K5-86K6 being as bright as a light bulb... They are all potential entry points for low longs...

6 Let's take a closer look at the on-chain data. Currently, the short-term holder cost basis (STH Cost Basis) for Bitcoin is at 92900... Historically, if it can stabilize at this price, it will be an important sign of a shift from bearish to recovery... (This means short-term holders will start making profits, which will strengthen market confidence)

The short-term holder profit/loss ratio (STH Profit/Loss Ratio) has reached 1.0, indicating that many recent buyers are at the breakeven point.

So the current position is very critical, as it also means that many previously trapped short-term holders will break even and run away here... This probably explains why ETF inflows of 2.2 billion have occurred in the past few days, but the price has remained stagnant...

7 At the same time, there is an interesting piece of data: currently, the total open interest (OI) in Bitcoin contracts is rising, but the funding rate has been negative since yesterday, indicating that many people are shorting in the contract market in the short term (consistent with the earlier liquidity discussion about stubborn shorts). Although many are betting on the downside, it also provides fuel for a short squeeze...

8 So after looking at this, do you notice that today feels hard to trade... There are sufficient reasons to go both up and down... Let's summarize

【Reasons for Going Up】 Macroeconomic negotiations are progressing well, US stock index futures are rising, ETF funds are entering, and there are expectations of a short squeeze...

【Reasons for Going Down】 The contract market is bearish, the spot order book is bearish, and there is pressure from the trapped positions of the past few months in the short term. There are too many long positions accumulated below, and when the price rises, they need to take profits, so it won't go up much. If the longs can't clear out, they won't have the motivation to push up...

Currently, no direction is visible, we still need to rely on Old Chuan's calls... We'll continue when there are clearer signals...