Tonight at 8:30, the US first-quarter GDP data will be released, which is highly anticipated and will determine the short-term market direction.
Currently, market expectations have been adjusted down to 0.3%, indicating a lack of confidence in economic growth.
If the announced data exceeds 2.4%, market concerns about recession will dissipate, and US stocks are likely to rise.
If it's 1%-2.4%, it indicates slow growth in the US economy, potentially leading to a soft landing, and market sentiment will be relatively stable.
If it's 0.3%-1%, it meets market expectations, considered a small positive, but confidence in a soft landing is still insufficient.
If it's 0-0.3%, below market expectations, but at least still growing, there will be fierce long-short games, and it will maintain a volatile trend; the market needs interest rate cuts or policies to boost it.
If it's 0 to -1%, it indicates negative growth in the US economy, recession expectations will heat up, US stocks may decline, and the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in June will increase.
If it's below -1%, it counts as a significant negative, panic in the market will intensify, unless the Federal Reserve or the White House urgently intervenes, US stocks may fall sharply.
Therefore, it is now recommended to mainly observe, as market uncertainty is very high, and there will be fierce long-short battles tonight. You may wait for the GDP data to be released before seeking trend opportunities.
What other news and data are worth paying attention to?
1. Could Bitcoin experience severe volatility?
The Bitcoin concentration indicator shows that there may be a big market movement coming soon.
What is concentration? Simply put, it's where many BTC buying prices are concentrated around the current price (±5%), making market sentiment easily ignited, which may lead to a surge or crash.
Historical data shows that when the concentration exceeds 13%, it often predicts large fluctuations.
Last time the concentration was high, in February 2024, BTC surged by 42%, and in February 2025, it plummeted by 15%.
Glassnode data shows that the current concentration is 11.9%, close to the sensitive area.
2. Is there hope for the Arizona Bitcoin bill?
Yesterday, the Arizona State Legislature passed a major bill to treat Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset.
Now it just needs the governor's signature; she has 5 working days to decide whether to sign or not, or to leave it alone and let it pass by default.
Once passed, Arizona will become the first state in the US to treat BTC as a strategic reserve.
This is different from Trump's national strategic reserves. Trump said taxpayer money cannot be used to buy BTC, but Arizona can directly buy Bitcoin using up to 10% of its finance or retirement fund.
Although not much can be bought in the short term, this matter is very significant.
Why? Because spot ETFs only make it easier for institutions and retail investors to buy Bitcoin, but when state governments buy directly, it is like an official endorsement of Bitcoin!
More importantly, the first state has taken the lead, and it will be easier for other states to follow, which may trigger a domino effect.
In the long run, this will boost market demand and confidence in Bitcoin.
3. Large investors are bottom-fishing Bitcoin.
MicroStrategy bought another $1.42 billion worth of Bitcoin last week, with an average purchase price of $92,737.
A giant whale on-chain also bought 30,000 ETH and 600 BTC, with a total value exceeding $110 million, indicating that large investors are hoarding at low levels.
Long-term holders are very confident; they are not selling BTC but are continuously increasing their positions, indicating they are optimistic about Bitcoin's future.
The stock on exchanges is also declining, down 5% in April compared to March, with BTC flowing from exchanges to personal wallets; investors are hoarding coins, and no one is in a hurry to sell.
The overall trend is very clear, more and more high-net-worth investors are treating BTC as a long-term asset, and market sentiment is leaning towards optimism, which may also be one reason for Bitcoin's strong performance recently.
4. Global money supply reaches an all-time high.
Currently, the US dollar, euro, and renminbi have all reached new highs, and the yen is also close to a new high.
Major economies are printing more and more money, and the purchasing power of the money in hand is weakening.
In this situation, Bitcoin is more like a tool to combat inflation, a counterattack against infinite money printing!
5. Spot ETF data continues to see net inflows.
Bitcoin spot ETF has seen a net inflow of $591 million, continuing a 7-day net inflow.
Ethereum spot ETF has seen a net inflow of $64.1159 million, continuing a 3-day net inflow.
Recently, the purchasing power for Ethereum ETFs has doubled, with retail investors, whales, and super whales all increasing their positions.
BlackRock added 53,000 ETH in two days, Fidelity added 20,000, and even Grayscale increased its holdings by 10,000. Almost all ETH spot ETFs in the US are increasing their positions, with the least buying 1,000 coins.
I don't know if it's influenced by Bitcoin or if there's some major event we don't know about that's about to happen.
