First, let’s discuss the big direction; this wave directly rushed to 94K, which can be said to exceed many people's expectations.. If on Monday Bitcoin surged against the US stock market and followed gold, and at that time it felt unexplainable.. This morning's softening speech from Trump provided a reasonable reason for the market.. (As mentioned earlier, Trump indicated he wouldn’t fire Powell and that tariffs would be lowered, he wouldn't play hardball, etc.)
It feels like there are still many insider positions behind the large funds in Bitcoin... Not to mention the previous insiders, just this week.. A reasonable speculation is that some funds have received today’s news about Trump softening, so they entered the market strongly against the US stock market.. After all, the crypto space has no regulations, and if you have news, there’s no SEC to check you before you enter the market.. So in this era of Trump, following the funds might be a good choice for swing traders..
Continuing with ETFs, yesterday mentioned that Monday's ETF inflow was 380 million, the highest in April, while yesterday Bitcoin ETF inflow was 910 million, the highest in the last three months.. Equivalent to all the funds that flowed out since March 28 have returned to Bitcoin.. Significant fund inflow is one of the indicators of a reversal.. If there are continued positive signals in the fundamentals (such as good GDP data at the end of the month, agreements reached between countries, gradual resumption of East-West trade) along with sustained fund inflow, it would signal a reversal towards new highs.. Currently, there can be expectations of a reversal over the next 2 days, but further observation is needed for a while.
Also pay attention to the CME market, the futures market BTC price is currently at a premium of 900 points, indicating strong demand in the futures market, which is driving the spot market up.. Overall market is optimistic about Bitcoin.. (Note that there is currently a gap of 92000-93300 on CME, which can be a reference for subsequent pullbacks to enter long positions)
From on-chain data and K-line patterns (chart), the area around 95K-98K is the accumulation zone of chips during the entire sideways period in February, on-chain data analysis shows there are nearly 400,000 Bitcoins' holding costs that have not been sold here.. Once the price reaches here, there is a trend to exit at breakeven.. If short-term stimulating news comes to this area without continuous macroeconomic and funding support, it may not break through easily (Trump announced strategic reserves, from 85K-95K that wave eventually surged to 95K for this reason)
In terms of order flow, the spot market has large orders at 95,000 and 91,500, which are visible price points. At the same time, CVD shows bearish divergence and a selling state.. There are no abnormalities in the contract market.
Options market, April 25 delivery pain point 85K, be careful..
From the order book and position data, it still leans bearish.. But we need to observe the situation after the US stock market opens..
From the perspective of clearing liquidity, the liquidity from shorts over the past week to a month has been cleared, and currently, there are only some short-term small clearing positions above the current level, and there isn't enough fuel for further upward clearing.. If we want to continue upwards, we should consolidate in this area (for example, oscillating below 95K for a few days, probing 95K) to allow the short liquidity to accumulate again, which would provide the momentum to push above the 98K trapped area.
Finally, after all, Trump softening in one speech does not equal the end of the entire trade war.. Whether they can sit down and resolve the issues, how much mutual benefit can be gained, and what the GDP data will be like next.. Whether the recession risk has been lifted, this is the truly decisive factor.. (An example is still the previous strategic reserves; a shout out caused 10K points, but when it actually got executed, it was just this??)
So in terms of operation, look bearish but don’t short, just observe.. The reference entry points for Bitcoin are 92K and 89K.. But whether we can enter depends on the price's response after reaching these two levels..
Is it time to draw the line or dip buy and continue to surge? If macro data and funding continue to be favorable, then any pullback is a good opportunity to enter.. If it’s just a shout without follow-up, then let’s operate according to the drawn line..