Federal Reserve Chairman Powell speaks in Chicago - High uncertainty requires waiting for clearer conditions
1. Interest Rate Outlook: High uncertainty; currently in a good position, will wait for more clear signals before considering adjusting policy stance.
2. Economic Outlook: The U.S. economy remains 'robust,' with strong imports in the first quarter causing a drag, and GDP may see a slowdown compared to last year's growth rate.
3. Inflation Outlook: The impact of tariffs may be more persistent, expected to push inflation higher; March PCE year-on-year is projected at 2.3%, core PCE at 2.6%.
4. Labor Market: Overall remains balanced; reduced funding for research is expected to have a significant impact on employment; the unemployment rate is expected to rise.
5. Tariff Impact: The extent of tariff increases so far has far exceeded expectations; policies are still being adjusted, and the impact remains highly uncertain.
6. Cryptocurrency: Gradually becoming mainstream, a legal framework for stablecoins needs to be established; bank regulation is expected to see 'partial easing.'
7. Independence: The independence of the Federal Reserve is legally granted; the Federal Reserve will not be influenced by political pressure.
8. Others: Don't expect the Federal Reserve to step in to rescue the market; if a dollar shortage occurs, the Federal Reserve is prepared to provide liquidity to global central banks.
9. Market Reaction: The dollar index fell and then rebounded, before dropping again; U.S. stocks continued to decline, with the Nasdaq down nearly 4%, and gold slightly climbed.
In summary: Don't expect the Federal Reserve to rescue the market; liquidity won't improve in the short term, and loosened bank regulation will benefit the cryptocurrency sector in the long run.
