2025/2/15-16 Bitcoin Trend Review:
Saturday's market had little to discuss, as it was oscillating in a narrow range with no volatility and no trading volume. What is worth mentioning is Sunday's market.
Sunday's movement continued the previous narrow oscillation until the 27th candlestick, leading to a series of bearish candlesticks closing below the moving average. The market may enter an 'always in short' state. When there are three consecutive bearish candlesticks closing below the moving average, one can consider going short. From a retrospective perspective, the market on the 15-minute level is declining in a narrow channel; one can only go short and not long, selling at the close of each bearish candlestick and selling at the close of each bullish candlestick.
Such a narrow channel indicates a strong trend, and there is a high probability of a second decline, with a 60% chance returning to the measure move position. Even if there isn’t an equidistant decline, there will be a small decline. From the one-hour chart, there are three consecutive large bearish candlesticks closing at a low level, and doubling the body portion of the three bearish candlesticks gives the target for shorts; since the market oscillated in a relatively small range over the weekend, it may not be satisfied with just reaching a one-time range fluctuation and could go to a two-time range amplitude, which is the lower bound of the previous violent fluctuations.
A good short position is below the 29, 41, and 49 candlesticks, entering short using a sell stop method, achieving a one-time or two-time measure move position will be a good trading opportunity.
I personally saw the market in an 'always in short' state and entered short at about the 50% position of the first wave decline on the 40th candlestick. When I saw a good signal (41st candlestick), I added to my position, achieving a one-time measure move at approximately 96700, closing most of my position. The remaining position was initially intended to hold until the lower bound of the range, but seeing the price unable to make a new low and instead overlapping, I closed the position. Overall, it was a good trade.
