February 12, 2025 Bitcoin Trend Review:
There were some events in reality over the past two days, so I will summarize the trends from these two days.
The price consolidated sideways after a narrow downward channel from the previous day, and until the appearance of the K-line on the 13th, it was not clear where the bottom of the range was, which did not provide good trading opportunities. At most, there were left-side limit orders; with limit orders, the appearance of the K-line on the 55th is likely to trigger stop-losses.
The 55th K-line is a surprise bearish K-line, and placing a sell stop or shorting at market price below the low is reasonable. However, since this K-line has a part of a lower shadow, it is better to set a sell stop. The subsequent bullish candle indicates that the bearish force did not continue to follow through. If the market price chased the short, adding positions at the 50% retracement level provides an opportunity to break even. The majority of surprise K-lines will offer such opportunities; of course, this requires position control. Even if additional positions are stopped out, the loss won't be too significant, and even if both trades hit the stop-loss, it won't greatly affect your mood.
Subsequent prices remained within a large bearish candle, understood in terms of ranges. The increase from 57 to 62 can also be viewed as a measure move upwards, after which a small rebound occurred. Most people could not catch this wave of increase, but why did it rise? It was actually due to computer programs operating, learning price behavior. Even if one did not catch this rise, one should know not to chase at the top; there will be downward risks from long positions closing and taking profits.
After reaching the long target price, it rose in a wide channel format, which can also be viewed as a wedge with three pushes. There is a 75% probability that the wide channel will break downwards, so opportunities to short can be sought.
