比特币每日复盘

2025/2/6 Bitcoin trend review:
After falling to the bottom of the range on the previous day (5th), the price rebounded. The market was once in a narrow upward channel, always in long. The best entry point for swing trading is above the 5th big Yang line (marked by the arrow), and use the buy stop method to enter the market and go long. The 5th big Yang line has a large body, no upper shadow, strong bullish power, and it is a continuous Yang line (from a larger time period), breaking through the moving average, which is a very good entry signal K. It is reasonable to enter the market at the market price or buy stop.
Another entry position for going long is above the Yang line when it pulls back to the vicinity of EMA. When I looked at the market yesterday, it was just around the closing of the 36th K line. The market was in a narrow channel and the market price entered the market to go long, but later the price paused near yesterday's high and closed the Yin line, so the position was closed. It was a capital-protecting transaction.
Subsequent swing trading opportunities are at the 52nd and 59th K-lines, which have continuous insidious closings below EMA20. It is a good entry option to hang a sell stop below the 52nd K-line to enter the market and short: the price has obviously formed a range, and within the range, the high short and low long, the winning rate and profit and loss ratio are on your side.
The 59th K-line is also the opening time of the US trading time. The bulls exerted upward force but failed, and instead harvested insidious with a long upper shadow. The price has not been able to stand above EMA20. Every bullish breakthrough (referring to the previous K high point and the breakthrough of the moving average) has no good follow-up. It is not reasonable to go long. Then the 59th K-line is a good short signal K. Hanging a sell stop below it to enter the market and short will be a good swing trading opportunity. I saw that the short force of Ethereum was stronger, so I made a short order of Ethereum last night and closed the position when the stop loss was obtained.
Looking at the overall trend from the other side, the price has clearly gone out of the characteristics of the oscillation range: big ups and downs, from a larger time period, the big Yang line is shorted, and the big Yin line is bought. The upper and lower boundaries of the oscillation range are also very obvious, from the lower 96150 to the upper 99150, the fluctuation of 3,000 US dollars, 80% of the breakthroughs in the range are failed, or 80% of the breakthroughs have no good follow-up, so high-altitude low-multiple in the range is a good choice
#比特币盘整将持续多久？ #比特币每日复盘

Hello everyone, it's been a while since the last update. I made a fundamental mistake in trading earlier, and I needed some time to rest and adjust, especially since the New Year kept me busy. In the coming time, I will share some insights about trading.
There isn't much to say about Bitcoin on the daily chart; it has been in a relatively wide fluctuating range since the last wave of increase, with a range of about 20% (from bottom to top). It is worth noting that two segments of decline have appeared within this range. If there is another decline in the next half month, it will form a three-push wedge structure, and since the price is at the bottom of the range, it would be a suitable time to buy long.
Review of the trend on 2025/2/5:
Starting from UTC+0 time (8 AM Beijing time, which is the daily opening and closing), all the way to the US trading hours, the price has been moving within a range that is not too large. In hindsight, it is easy to see that this is a trading range. It may not be readily apparent during the session, but if one cannot make good judgments, they can look at the previous day's trend, where there were significant drops and rises, which are characteristics of a fluctuating range. If one can identify a fluctuating range, it can save a lot of time in trading and reduce unnecessary entries. The only suitable entry opportunity is marked as the 41st candlestick in Figure 2, where a three-push wedge forms within the fluctuating range, and there are two consecutive bullish candlesticks at the bottom of the range, providing background support. The entry condition is not too bad, and one can enter long using a buy stop order above the 41st candlestick, aiming to reach the upper part of the range, which could be a good trading opportunity.
As soon as the US trading session opened, it tested the upper part of the range. A large bearish candlestick with a significant real body formed on the 15-minute chart, which is a very good short signal, situated at the upper boundary of the range with background support and signal support. One can place a sell stop order below the 60th candlestick to enter short, with the option to close at the bottom of the range during the day. However, trading volume tends to be larger during the US session, often leading to more trading opportunities and larger fluctuations. One can continue to aim downward towards the low point of yesterday and close near that low. When the price no longer declines near yesterday's low, one should close the position.
Today is the first day of reviewing intraday trends. If this review is helpful to you, I will continue to do it. #比特币盘整将持续多久？ #比特币每日复盘

2025/2/14 Bitcoin Trend Review:
In the first half of the day, there wasn't much volatility. The only thing worth noting is that the 87th K line from the previous day to the 17th of this day forms a wedge pattern, which is likely to test the starting point downwards. If holding a long position, it is necessary to exit at the close of the big bearish line on the 17th, or to enter a short position at market price. If a short position is taken and the 25th K line is seen (which indicates that the bears are weak while the bulls have continuous buying strength, preventing the price from closing below the moving average), it is necessary to place a stop-loss above it and exit.
Another suitable opportunity for a swing short position occurs at the 46th K line. The previous rise is weak, the pattern is bearish, and the big bearish line closes at the lowest while also closing below the moving average. A sell stop for shorting or entering at market price is both feasible, but the subsequent trend is poor: the K lines alternate between bearish and bullish. From a smaller time frame perspective, this is a wide channel, and there is a 75% probability that it will be broken upwards. When the 55th K line appears, the bears need to place a stop-loss above it. However, this does not present an opportunity to enter a long position; it is merely an exit opportunity for the bears, as the bullish strength is not strong enough.
Only at the 59th K line can it be considered that the bulls have buying power. It is logically reasonable to place a buy stop above it to enter a long position, but the outcome is a failure. After seeing the poor follow-up of the 61st big bearish line, it is necessary to exit the long position directly.
The most noteworthy is the 68th K line, where the big bullish line closes at the highest point, breaking through the small range of the previous K lines and the moving average. Entering at market price or placing a buy stop is both reasonable. If entering at market price, there will be bulls willing to buy when the price reaches the 50% retracement level. Subsequently, the price will provide opportunities for closing out long positions near the closing price. When waiting for the price to break through the high of the 68th K line, re-entering (just like placing a buy stop above it) is also a good opportunity, and closing out will avoid the risk of price decline.
Such a big bullish line closing at the highest point has a high probability of a second upward movement, with a 60% probability of reaching the measured move. After the bulls reach their target (which is also near the previous day's high), they will start to close out, leading to a price retracement.
$BTC #比特币每日复盘

2025/2/15-16 Bitcoin Trend Review:
Saturday's market had little to discuss, as it was oscillating in a narrow range with no volatility and no trading volume. What is worth mentioning is Sunday's market.
Sunday's movement continued the previous narrow oscillation until the 27th candlestick, leading to a series of bearish candlesticks closing below the moving average. The market may enter an 'always in short' state. When there are three consecutive bearish candlesticks closing below the moving average, one can consider going short. From a retrospective perspective, the market on the 15-minute level is declining in a narrow channel; one can only go short and not long, selling at the close of each bearish candlestick and selling at the close of each bullish candlestick.
Such a narrow channel indicates a strong trend, and there is a high probability of a second decline, with a 60% chance returning to the measure move position. Even if there isn’t an equidistant decline, there will be a small decline. From the one-hour chart, there are three consecutive large bearish candlesticks closing at a low level, and doubling the body portion of the three bearish candlesticks gives the target for shorts; since the market oscillated in a relatively small range over the weekend, it may not be satisfied with just reaching a one-time range fluctuation and could go to a two-time range amplitude, which is the lower bound of the previous violent fluctuations.
A good short position is below the 29, 41, and 49 candlesticks, entering short using a sell stop method, achieving a one-time or two-time measure move position will be a good trading opportunity.
I personally saw the market in an 'always in short' state and entered short at about the 50% position of the first wave decline on the 40th candlestick. When I saw a good signal (41st candlestick), I added to my position, achieving a one-time measure move at approximately 96700, closing most of my position. The remaining position was initially intended to hold until the lower bound of the range, but seeing the price unable to make a new low and instead overlapping, I closed the position. Overall, it was a good trade.
$BTC #比特币每日复盘

2025/2/11 Bitcoin Trend Review:
Tuesday's movement was technically very standard and relatively easy to trade.
The price in the first 12 hours continued the previous day's fluctuations, forming a large range squeezing into a smaller range. There was not much volatility within the oscillating range. If one held a long position the previous day, they could close near the top of the range. One must exit at the latest by the 34th candlestick or the 39th candlestick, because the 34th candlestick is a consecutive bearish candle closing below the moving average, while the 39th candlestick is a strong engulfing signal, both closing at almost the lowest position. Regardless of whether there will be a decline, at least the price is at the top of the range, and the bullish trend has been disrupted, continuing to hold long positions will bring more uncertainty.
Up until the 49th candlestick, the bulls could not close above the EMA, instead, they were broken through by the bears, with a large bearish candle breaking out of the narrow range, forming a double top with lower highs compared to the 24th candlestick. Entering short using a sell stop below it, with the stop loss placed above the 48th candlestick.
All the way down to the 56th candlestick, there was a pause in price due to bears closing their positions for profit. At this point, if viewed on the hourly chart, there are two super large bearish candles. Such a strong downward trend has an 80% probability of a second leg down. When the price adjusts near the moving average, the 66th candlestick appears, closing at the lowest, breaking the narrow range. Entering below it with a sell stop, and placing the stop loss above the narrow range.
It is worth mentioning that both segments of the decline were very strong, always in short, shorting for any reason, selling the close of every large bearish candle, selling the close of every bullish candle, and even shorting at market price are all reasonable. Meanwhile, due to such a strong decline, measuring the open and close of the two large bearish candles on the hourly chart, doubling the measure move downwards is the target for the bears. Such a strong trend has a 60% probability of reaching the measure move, which coincidentally is also the bottom of the large range and the low of the previous day. Personally, I took a short position at the 67th candlestick and closed at the bottom of the range, which was a good short trade.
$BTC #比特币每日复盘

2025/2/13 Bitcoin Trend Review:
The price continued the previous day's three-push wedge and then stagnated. The previous day's 91K line and the 8K line of this day formed a double top with lower highs. If holding long positions, one must exit after seeing the closing of the 11K line, as it is consecutive bearish candles closing below the moving average. More aggressive traders could enter with a sell stop below the 11K line or by market order directly. Subsequently, the 18K line confirmed a downward trend, and entering with a sell stop below the 18K line would present a good swing trading opportunity. The price then declined in a narrow channel, always in short, only short positions can be taken, no long positions can be held for any reason. Sell on the close of any large bearish candle, sell on the close of any bullish candle. By increasing the position size with profits, one can achieve quite good returns.
This continued until the appearance of the 29K line, which, when viewed together with the 28K line, showed significant overlap, and there is a possibility of entering a consolidation range. The 28-36 lines formed a wide descending channel with upper and lower shadows, with a 75% probability of being broken upwards. If short positions have been held without closure, after the appearance of the 37K line, move the stop loss above it to exit.
Subsequent trading opportunities appeared on the 63K bullish candle and the 76K bullish candle. Although the results were failures, there were no logical issues; if entering long and seeing poor follow-through, one should exit in a timely manner. Until the 81K line, following the same logic as the previous two long entries, the bullish line broke the moving average for entry, and the 81K line brought subsequent upward movement. From the perspective of the range, there is not much profit space, but one can anticipate a breakout of the range, which allows for looking upwards to another range distance; another long opportunity is on the 85K line, entering long with a buy stop may present a good swing trading opportunity.
$BTC #比特币每日复盘

February 12, 2025 Bitcoin Trend Review:
There were some events in reality over the past two days, so I will summarize the trends from these two days.
The price consolidated sideways after a narrow downward channel from the previous day, and until the appearance of the K-line on the 13th, it was not clear where the bottom of the range was, which did not provide good trading opportunities. At most, there were left-side limit orders; with limit orders, the appearance of the K-line on the 55th is likely to trigger stop-losses.
The 55th K-line is a surprise bearish K-line, and placing a sell stop or shorting at market price below the low is reasonable. However, since this K-line has a part of a lower shadow, it is better to set a sell stop. The subsequent bullish candle indicates that the bearish force did not continue to follow through. If the market price chased the short, adding positions at the 50% retracement level provides an opportunity to break even. The majority of surprise K-lines will offer such opportunities; of course, this requires position control. Even if additional positions are stopped out, the loss won't be too significant, and even if both trades hit the stop-loss, it won't greatly affect your mood.
Subsequent prices remained within a large bearish candle, understood in terms of ranges. The increase from 57 to 62 can also be viewed as a measure move upwards, after which a small rebound occurred. Most people could not catch this wave of increase, but why did it rise? It was actually due to computer programs operating, learning price behavior. Even if one did not catch this rise, one should know not to chase at the top; there will be downward risks from long positions closing and taking profits.
After reaching the long target price, it rose in a wide channel format, which can also be viewed as a wedge with three pushes. There is a 75% probability that the wide channel will break downwards, so opportunities to short can be sought.
$BTC #比特币每日复盘