Chory1551

My contract account was liquidated. In fact, the trends of many currencies are very similar. The currencies in the currency circle are still relatively correlated at present, and there is no need to open many positions at one time. In my opinion, making money in the currency circle is what you deserve, and losing money is what you deserve. I deserved my liquidation.
Taking Bitcoin and Litecoin as examples, although the bullish trend still exists at a larger level, the bearish trend has already emerged at a small level, so you should go short with the trend. Counter-trend trading can only rebound after all. It can be seen on the one-hour chart that the moving average is clearly in a bearish arrangement. Litecoin is a rising wedge in shape. The price position of the callback to about 75 is just the resistance level of Fibonacci 0.5, which resonates with the Vegas Tunnel. The advantage of going long is not great, but people always have fantasies: fantasizing about getting rich overnight and fantasizing about eating up all in one order. It is this fantasy that leads to major losses.
The analysis is very simple. Such a market can be analyzed after the fact as long as you know a little K-line, but trading is another matter. I went long in the bearish trend because I was not aware enough and had illusions. I opened many copycat positions at one time because I had poor order management ability. In other words, I deserved my position to be liquidated. Actually, it’s pretty good. After all, I’m still in the stage of paying tuition fees. I didn’t get liquidated after investing a large amount of capital. In the next period of time, I will only make a few operations. I wish you all good fortune $BTC $ETH $LTC

Sorry everyone, the trades from the past couple of days were very poor. I've been resting for the past few days, and I'll catch up on the review posts in a few days.

2025/2/15-16 Bitcoin Trend Review:
Saturday's market had little to discuss, as it was oscillating in a narrow range with no volatility and no trading volume. What is worth mentioning is Sunday's market.
Sunday's movement continued the previous narrow oscillation until the 27th candlestick, leading to a series of bearish candlesticks closing below the moving average. The market may enter an 'always in short' state. When there are three consecutive bearish candlesticks closing below the moving average, one can consider going short. From a retrospective perspective, the market on the 15-minute level is declining in a narrow channel; one can only go short and not long, selling at the close of each bearish candlestick and selling at the close of each bullish candlestick.
Such a narrow channel indicates a strong trend, and there is a high probability of a second decline, with a 60% chance returning to the measure move position. Even if there isn’t an equidistant decline, there will be a small decline. From the one-hour chart, there are three consecutive large bearish candlesticks closing at a low level, and doubling the body portion of the three bearish candlesticks gives the target for shorts; since the market oscillated in a relatively small range over the weekend, it may not be satisfied with just reaching a one-time range fluctuation and could go to a two-time range amplitude, which is the lower bound of the previous violent fluctuations.
A good short position is below the 29, 41, and 49 candlesticks, entering short using a sell stop method, achieving a one-time or two-time measure move position will be a good trading opportunity.
I personally saw the market in an 'always in short' state and entered short at about the 50% position of the first wave decline on the 40th candlestick. When I saw a good signal (41st candlestick), I added to my position, achieving a one-time measure move at approximately 96700, closing most of my position. The remaining position was initially intended to hold until the lower bound of the range, but seeing the price unable to make a new low and instead overlapping, I closed the position. Overall, it was a good trade.
$BTC #比特币每日复盘

2025/2/14 Bitcoin Trend Review:
In the first half of the day, there wasn't much volatility. The only thing worth noting is that the 87th K line from the previous day to the 17th of this day forms a wedge pattern, which is likely to test the starting point downwards. If holding a long position, it is necessary to exit at the close of the big bearish line on the 17th, or to enter a short position at market price. If a short position is taken and the 25th K line is seen (which indicates that the bears are weak while the bulls have continuous buying strength, preventing the price from closing below the moving average), it is necessary to place a stop-loss above it and exit.
Another suitable opportunity for a swing short position occurs at the 46th K line. The previous rise is weak, the pattern is bearish, and the big bearish line closes at the lowest while also closing below the moving average. A sell stop for shorting or entering at market price is both feasible, but the subsequent trend is poor: the K lines alternate between bearish and bullish. From a smaller time frame perspective, this is a wide channel, and there is a 75% probability that it will be broken upwards. When the 55th K line appears, the bears need to place a stop-loss above it. However, this does not present an opportunity to enter a long position; it is merely an exit opportunity for the bears, as the bullish strength is not strong enough.
Only at the 59th K line can it be considered that the bulls have buying power. It is logically reasonable to place a buy stop above it to enter a long position, but the outcome is a failure. After seeing the poor follow-up of the 61st big bearish line, it is necessary to exit the long position directly.
The most noteworthy is the 68th K line, where the big bullish line closes at the highest point, breaking through the small range of the previous K lines and the moving average. Entering at market price or placing a buy stop is both reasonable. If entering at market price, there will be bulls willing to buy when the price reaches the 50% retracement level. Subsequently, the price will provide opportunities for closing out long positions near the closing price. When waiting for the price to break through the high of the 68th K line, re-entering (just like placing a buy stop above it) is also a good opportunity, and closing out will avoid the risk of price decline.
Such a big bullish line closing at the highest point has a high probability of a second upward movement, with a 60% probability of reaching the measured move. After the bulls reach their target (which is also near the previous day's high), they will start to close out, leading to a price retracement.
$BTC #比特币每日复盘

2025/2/13 Bitcoin Trend Review:
The price continued the previous day's three-push wedge and then stagnated. The previous day's 91K line and the 8K line of this day formed a double top with lower highs. If holding long positions, one must exit after seeing the closing of the 11K line, as it is consecutive bearish candles closing below the moving average. More aggressive traders could enter with a sell stop below the 11K line or by market order directly. Subsequently, the 18K line confirmed a downward trend, and entering with a sell stop below the 18K line would present a good swing trading opportunity. The price then declined in a narrow channel, always in short, only short positions can be taken, no long positions can be held for any reason. Sell on the close of any large bearish candle, sell on the close of any bullish candle. By increasing the position size with profits, one can achieve quite good returns.
This continued until the appearance of the 29K line, which, when viewed together with the 28K line, showed significant overlap, and there is a possibility of entering a consolidation range. The 28-36 lines formed a wide descending channel with upper and lower shadows, with a 75% probability of being broken upwards. If short positions have been held without closure, after the appearance of the 37K line, move the stop loss above it to exit.
Subsequent trading opportunities appeared on the 63K bullish candle and the 76K bullish candle. Although the results were failures, there were no logical issues; if entering long and seeing poor follow-through, one should exit in a timely manner. Until the 81K line, following the same logic as the previous two long entries, the bullish line broke the moving average for entry, and the 81K line brought subsequent upward movement. From the perspective of the range, there is not much profit space, but one can anticipate a breakout of the range, which allows for looking upwards to another range distance; another long opportunity is on the 85K line, entering long with a buy stop may present a good swing trading opportunity.
$BTC #比特币每日复盘

February 12, 2025 Bitcoin Trend Review:
There were some events in reality over the past two days, so I will summarize the trends from these two days.
The price consolidated sideways after a narrow downward channel from the previous day, and until the appearance of the K-line on the 13th, it was not clear where the bottom of the range was, which did not provide good trading opportunities. At most, there were left-side limit orders; with limit orders, the appearance of the K-line on the 55th is likely to trigger stop-losses.
The 55th K-line is a surprise bearish K-line, and placing a sell stop or shorting at market price below the low is reasonable. However, since this K-line has a part of a lower shadow, it is better to set a sell stop. The subsequent bullish candle indicates that the bearish force did not continue to follow through. If the market price chased the short, adding positions at the 50% retracement level provides an opportunity to break even. The majority of surprise K-lines will offer such opportunities; of course, this requires position control. Even if additional positions are stopped out, the loss won't be too significant, and even if both trades hit the stop-loss, it won't greatly affect your mood.
Subsequent prices remained within a large bearish candle, understood in terms of ranges. The increase from 57 to 62 can also be viewed as a measure move upwards, after which a small rebound occurred. Most people could not catch this wave of increase, but why did it rise? It was actually due to computer programs operating, learning price behavior. Even if one did not catch this rise, one should know not to chase at the top; there will be downward risks from long positions closing and taking profits.
After reaching the long target price, it rose in a wide channel format, which can also be viewed as a wedge with three pushes. There is a 75% probability that the wide channel will break downwards, so opportunities to short can be sought.
$BTC #比特币每日复盘

2025/2/11 Bitcoin Trend Review:
Tuesday's movement was technically very standard and relatively easy to trade.
The price in the first 12 hours continued the previous day's fluctuations, forming a large range squeezing into a smaller range. There was not much volatility within the oscillating range. If one held a long position the previous day, they could close near the top of the range. One must exit at the latest by the 34th candlestick or the 39th candlestick, because the 34th candlestick is a consecutive bearish candle closing below the moving average, while the 39th candlestick is a strong engulfing signal, both closing at almost the lowest position. Regardless of whether there will be a decline, at least the price is at the top of the range, and the bullish trend has been disrupted, continuing to hold long positions will bring more uncertainty.
Up until the 49th candlestick, the bulls could not close above the EMA, instead, they were broken through by the bears, with a large bearish candle breaking out of the narrow range, forming a double top with lower highs compared to the 24th candlestick. Entering short using a sell stop below it, with the stop loss placed above the 48th candlestick.
All the way down to the 56th candlestick, there was a pause in price due to bears closing their positions for profit. At this point, if viewed on the hourly chart, there are two super large bearish candles. Such a strong downward trend has an 80% probability of a second leg down. When the price adjusts near the moving average, the 66th candlestick appears, closing at the lowest, breaking the narrow range. Entering below it with a sell stop, and placing the stop loss above the narrow range.
It is worth mentioning that both segments of the decline were very strong, always in short, shorting for any reason, selling the close of every large bearish candle, selling the close of every bullish candle, and even shorting at market price are all reasonable. Meanwhile, due to such a strong decline, measuring the open and close of the two large bearish candles on the hourly chart, doubling the measure move downwards is the target for the bears. Such a strong trend has a 60% probability of reaching the measure move, which coincidentally is also the bottom of the large range and the low of the previous day. Personally, I took a short position at the 67th candlestick and closed at the bottom of the range, which was a good short trade.
$BTC #比特币每日复盘

An interesting anecdote:
A few nights ago, a friend in a communication group asked if you would short TST. Someone replied that since there is no contract, how can you short it? I replied that you can sell the currency with leverage and then buy it back. The essence of shorting is to borrow and sell the currency, that is, you borrow TST currency from me, you sell it at the market price or limit price, and wait for the price to fall or rise before you buy back the TST currency and return it to me. From our perspective, there is only a loan relationship between us for the currency TST, that is, I lend you the currency, and you need to return it to me (with interest). If the price falls, you can buy back the currency at a lower price to repay the currency you borrowed from me, and you make money; if the price rises, you need to buy back the currency you owe me at a higher price to return it to me, and you lose money.
The essence of going long is to buy a currency or asset. If leverage is used, it is essentially to borrow U to buy currency (taking Bitcoin as an example). If you borrow USDT from me to buy Bitcoin, then there is only a loan relationship between you and me regarding USDT. When the price rises, you sell Bitcoin at a higher price to repay the U you owe me, and the rest is profit. When the price of Bitcoin soared, the annualized rate of return of USDT's current account financial management was frighteningly high, at 20%+. In fact, it was because too many people borrowed U to buy Bitcoin, which pushed up the current interest rate.
Regarding the interest on borrowed currency, take the aevo I bought heavily in April last year as an example. I bought aevo heavily at a relatively low point (about 1.4-1.5), and then I went to the current account. At that time, the aevo current account interest rate could have an annualized return of 10+, and I still felt that I made a lot of money. But then the price fell all the way, and I did not stop loss but added positions instead. The more it fell, the more I bought. Finally, I sold all my aevo positions at a yield of -75%. The current account interest rate of the currency was raised because many people borrowed the currency to sell short. In the contract, because there is a margin mechanism, leverage does not involve a real lending relationship. It is only based on your margin level that determines how many positions you can open and at what price level there is a risk of forced liquidation.

2025/2/10 Bitcoin Trend Review:
There was no trading volume and volatility over the weekend, so no analysis was done. There was still no volatility on Monday. From the daily chart, Bitcoin has now formed four cross stars. Yesterday's closing was a small positive line. It cannot be subjectively considered that a breakthrough has been made. Multiple cross stars are trading ranges in a smaller time period, and 80% of the breakthroughs in the range are failures. The closing price of the daily line will attract the price back to a "fair" position like a magnet.
The end of the 2/9 trading session tested the range downward, and the result showed that it failed to break through. At the same time, it formed a double bottom with the 8th K-line on 2/10, but the existence of structure does not mean that trading is necessary. Trading requires background and signals. The so-called structure is viewed from hindsight, and it cannot be said that it has been formed before it is broken. Until the 14th K-line, a large positive line strongly broke through the overlapping part of the previous three K-lines and broke through the moving average. Buy stop was used above the 14th K-line. It is a reasonable choice to enter the market with a long order, but the subsequent price moves very slowly and forms a range. You can continue to hold or wait for the price to test the top of the range to close the position.
There were not many trading opportunities all day yesterday. I personally traded gold and foreign exchange. I would like to share some trading experience:
1. Stop loss in time to avoid losing a lot of money
2. Be patient to wait for good trading opportunities
I haven't traded gold, crude oil and foreign exchange for a long time. When I started again, I didn't trade in the US market time and there was a spread problem, which led to many mistakes in the details. The winning rate was only 27%, but I only lost a little bit overall. The K-line did not match my I will leave the market early when I expect it, so that I can survive in the market without suffering a big loss. Because I can stop losses in advance, my profit-loss ratio is relatively high. Otherwise, with my 27% winning rate, I probably won’t make much money.
Because I look at the five-minute chart, and the gold price fluctuated very quickly yesterday, I looked at gold and currency pairs when I came back to do gold and foreign exchange. I looked at one and didn’t care about the other, which led to missed opportunities. So I tried to rationalize my thoughts and made a lot of unnecessary orders, which were completely unnecessary afterwards.
$BTC #比特币后市 #比特币走势分析

2025/2/6 Bitcoin trend review:
After falling to the bottom of the range on the previous day (5th), the price rebounded. The market was once in a narrow upward channel, always in long. The best entry point for swing trading is above the 5th big Yang line (marked by the arrow), and use the buy stop method to enter the market and go long. The 5th big Yang line has a large body, no upper shadow, strong bullish power, and it is a continuous Yang line (from a larger time period), breaking through the moving average, which is a very good entry signal K. It is reasonable to enter the market at the market price or buy stop.
Another entry position for going long is above the Yang line when it pulls back to the vicinity of EMA. When I looked at the market yesterday, it was just around the closing of the 36th K line. The market was in a narrow channel and the market price entered the market to go long, but later the price paused near yesterday's high and closed the Yin line, so the position was closed. It was a capital-protecting transaction.
Subsequent swing trading opportunities are at the 52nd and 59th K-lines, which have continuous insidious closings below EMA20. It is a good entry option to hang a sell stop below the 52nd K-line to enter the market and short: the price has obviously formed a range, and within the range, the high short and low long, the winning rate and profit and loss ratio are on your side.
The 59th K-line is also the opening time of the US trading time. The bulls exerted upward force but failed, and instead harvested insidious with a long upper shadow. The price has not been able to stand above EMA20. Every bullish breakthrough (referring to the previous K high point and the breakthrough of the moving average) has no good follow-up. It is not reasonable to go long. Then the 59th K-line is a good short signal K. Hanging a sell stop below it to enter the market and short will be a good swing trading opportunity. I saw that the short force of Ethereum was stronger, so I made a short order of Ethereum last night and closed the position when the stop loss was obtained.
Looking at the overall trend from the other side, the price has clearly gone out of the characteristics of the oscillation range: big ups and downs, from a larger time period, the big Yang line is shorted, and the big Yin line is bought. The upper and lower boundaries of the oscillation range are also very obvious, from the lower 96150 to the upper 99150, the fluctuation of 3,000 US dollars, 80% of the breakthroughs in the range are failed, or 80% of the breakthroughs have no good follow-up, so high-altitude low-multiple in the range is a good choice
#比特币盘整将持续多久？ #比特币每日复盘

Hello everyone, it's been a while since the last update. I made a fundamental mistake in trading earlier, and I needed some time to rest and adjust, especially since the New Year kept me busy. In the coming time, I will share some insights about trading.
There isn't much to say about Bitcoin on the daily chart; it has been in a relatively wide fluctuating range since the last wave of increase, with a range of about 20% (from bottom to top). It is worth noting that two segments of decline have appeared within this range. If there is another decline in the next half month, it will form a three-push wedge structure, and since the price is at the bottom of the range, it would be a suitable time to buy long.
Review of the trend on 2025/2/5:
Starting from UTC+0 time (8 AM Beijing time, which is the daily opening and closing), all the way to the US trading hours, the price has been moving within a range that is not too large. In hindsight, it is easy to see that this is a trading range. It may not be readily apparent during the session, but if one cannot make good judgments, they can look at the previous day's trend, where there were significant drops and rises, which are characteristics of a fluctuating range. If one can identify a fluctuating range, it can save a lot of time in trading and reduce unnecessary entries. The only suitable entry opportunity is marked as the 41st candlestick in Figure 2, where a three-push wedge forms within the fluctuating range, and there are two consecutive bullish candlesticks at the bottom of the range, providing background support. The entry condition is not too bad, and one can enter long using a buy stop order above the 41st candlestick, aiming to reach the upper part of the range, which could be a good trading opportunity.
As soon as the US trading session opened, it tested the upper part of the range. A large bearish candlestick with a significant real body formed on the 15-minute chart, which is a very good short signal, situated at the upper boundary of the range with background support and signal support. One can place a sell stop order below the 60th candlestick to enter short, with the option to close at the bottom of the range during the day. However, trading volume tends to be larger during the US session, often leading to more trading opportunities and larger fluctuations. One can continue to aim downward towards the low point of yesterday and close near that low. When the price no longer declines near yesterday's low, one should close the position.
Today is the first day of reviewing intraday trends. If this review is helpful to you, I will continue to do it. #比特币盘整将持续多久？ #比特币每日复盘

$CKB
CKB has reached a price position that needs attention. First of all, it is necessary to make it clear that the Vegas moving average is still in a bullish arrangement, and the bullish trend is still there, but the previous adjustment time is relatively long, and the callback amplitude is relatively deep; secondly, this callback has created two breakthroughs in the downward trend line. If it can create another horizontal breakthrough (about 0.0163), or the daily line closes a full big positive line, it can enter the long position. I personally recommend buying spot because the contract holding cost is too high
(*Note that breaking the trend line can only be said to break the downward slope, or the speed of the decline, not the end of the decline, which can only represent Need to adjust and may end. For long orders, a large-scale pullback is a small-scale downward trend. Long orders must wait until the reverse force, that is, the downward force, is exhausted before entering the market)
The daily line seems difficult to understand, but it will be much simpler to look at the weekly line. The weekly line is two declines without breaking the previous low point at the same time, and it is converging, and the weekly moving average is also a bullish divergence (sma100 is not displayed, and the market is too messy after looking at it too much). A high 2K line is seen near SMA20, which is the second effort of the bulls. The high 2K line is usually a good entry K line. In a clear trend, it is often the initiation of the trend. The stop loss is also very good. If it breaks through the support and resistance exchange in front (0.01252), it should be stopped. On the left side, you can place an order near 0.01252, and use the previous low point as a defense. However, I still recommend that individual players only do the right side order. The right side has a high degree of certainty and is better for the mentality.
The profit targets are around 0.027, 0.033, and higher.
Finally, I wish you all a smooth trading.

The Ethereum to Bitcoin exchange rate has formed a head and shoulders bottom pattern, breaking through the support-resistance swap position that has been maintained for a month (approximately 0.0357). At the same time, it has broken down from the descending channel line, indicating that the bearish energy of the exchange rate is likely exhausted. Ethereum against Bitcoin is very likely to experience a rebound; it may not start immediately, but currently, buying Ethereum is more advantageous than buying Bitcoin.
From a candlestick perspective, Ethereum has completed the squeeze at the top of the range, and this time it is very likely a true breakout. Additionally, when the main force is clearing leverage, Bitcoin's spike is relatively deep (from the SMC perspective, it has spiked to the 4-hour OB, which is the cost price of this rising segment), while Ethereum has not experienced particularly large fluctuations, not even breaking the narrow range at the top of the interval. Testing the upper range (approximately 4000) upwards is also entirely possible; from the liquidation data, the number of Ethereum short positions liquidated is greater than that of long positions, while Bitcoin primarily has liquidated long positions, and the long-short ratio has dropped from about four to one yesterday to 2.91. This is also a reference-worthy data point.
Regarding the Ethereum to Bitcoin exchange rate, it often makes subtle moves during significant market fluctuations. At this time, breaking through key resistance is noteworthy; at the same time, from the perspective of the exchange rate, it is also a major support area, representing a left-side long position in terms of the exchange rate (note that this is not in terms of Ethereum's price, so be careful to distinguish between the exchange rate and Ethereum's price).
Bitcoin's market share has also dropped, now squeezing at around 59%. As long as it falls below 58%, the altcoin season will truly arrive, and at that time, various altcoins will take turns to rise. Positioning in some altcoins with relatively good-looking trends is also an opportunity.

$ZEN has exploded, making it onto the gainers list, likely due to halving speculation. Although there were two days during the holding period that might have been tough, I never experienced a floating loss. Since I built my position at 7.49, I increased my holdings during price compression, and now that it has broken through key resistance, I still expect it to continue rising.
Currently, the increase from my entry price of 7.49 has already surpassed 70%, completely distancing me from danger. I plan to close most of my position when it reaches 17, leaving just a small amount to see if it can rise further.
Over the past month, I've found that given market depth, fluctuations in capital, and holding costs, trading spot (with leverage in my case) feels much better. For this trade in Zen, the contract fees have already reached a relatively high level (but it hasn't hit an extremely greedy level yet). If I had held contracts over the past 20 days, the fees would have been an unavoidable issue.
Finally, I wish everyone smooth trading.

$BTC Bitcoin's market share has risen again, breaking through the high point on November 7. This is not a good thing for the altcoin market. The current market share is rising in the 8-hour Vegas tunnel, and the bullish trend has not changed. The surge in individual altcoins does not mean that the altcoin season has arrived - most altcoins have not yet broken through the high point in July, not to mention the high point in March.
But at the same time, the market share has been on a long channel, rising for a year and a half, and is currently at a large-scale resistance position. It is not very meaningful to look at the big cycle for short-term trading, but recently, Bitcoin has a more stable profit probability. There is no problem with shorting the market share (that is, there is no problem with expecting the altcoin season), but if you really want to do altcoins, I personally suggest that you wait for the long structure to be destroyed and the market share to fall below 58%, which is the time to do altcoins. At present, from the perspective of Bitcoin's daily line, the continuous small positive lines and the long real positive lines, the small negative lines with shadows are quickly recovered by the positive lines, and the two large positive lines on the weekly line all indicate that the bull market has arrived. It is okay to be bearish, but shorting is too risky, and it is easy to miss the opportunity to go long, so shorting is not recommended. I wish you all a smooth transaction #BTC冲破9万 #美国CPI公布后降息预期上升

At present, $ZEN has been squeezed. I just added a little position at 9.59. A good potential structure has emerged at a small level. Let's see if there is a surprise when I wake up. $ZEN

$AR has broken through, I have already chased in

I originally wrote a lot, including price analysis and halving analysis, but the draft got stuck and I didn't save it🤬🤬🤬
Anyway, the price has risen well now, with an increase of over 30% since I posted, so you can hold it with confidence. You can consider reducing your position for the first time at around 12.8, and basically sell all at 17.2.

Those who want to buy spot can buy a little of $ZEN . There is a little over a month until the production is halved. From the perspective of the average holding cost, there has already been one deep drop (about 40% below the average cost). A converging triangle has formed, and currently there is a false breakdown downward. With Bitcoin hitting historical highs, I think it is possible to speculate, and the risk-reward ratio is decent. If there is a 20% drop, I will stop loss and exit. At least we can see a potential increase of about 70% towards the previous high point. If it can break above the converging range and the high point of the horizontal level, I will choose to increase my position. I have already bought a portion of the position, and I will follow up based on the situation.