2025/2/14 Bitcoin Trend Review:
In the first half of the day, there wasn't much volatility. The only thing worth noting is that the 87th K line from the previous day to the 17th of this day forms a wedge pattern, which is likely to test the starting point downwards. If holding a long position, it is necessary to exit at the close of the big bearish line on the 17th, or to enter a short position at market price. If a short position is taken and the 25th K line is seen (which indicates that the bears are weak while the bulls have continuous buying strength, preventing the price from closing below the moving average), it is necessary to place a stop-loss above it and exit.
Another suitable opportunity for a swing short position occurs at the 46th K line. The previous rise is weak, the pattern is bearish, and the big bearish line closes at the lowest while also closing below the moving average. A sell stop for shorting or entering at market price is both feasible, but the subsequent trend is poor: the K lines alternate between bearish and bullish. From a smaller time frame perspective, this is a wide channel, and there is a 75% probability that it will be broken upwards. When the 55th K line appears, the bears need to place a stop-loss above it. However, this does not present an opportunity to enter a long position; it is merely an exit opportunity for the bears, as the bullish strength is not strong enough.
Only at the 59th K line can it be considered that the bulls have buying power. It is logically reasonable to place a buy stop above it to enter a long position, but the outcome is a failure. After seeing the poor follow-up of the 61st big bearish line, it is necessary to exit the long position directly.
The most noteworthy is the 68th K line, where the big bullish line closes at the highest point, breaking through the small range of the previous K lines and the moving average. Entering at market price or placing a buy stop is both reasonable. If entering at market price, there will be bulls willing to buy when the price reaches the 50% retracement level. Subsequently, the price will provide opportunities for closing out long positions near the closing price. When waiting for the price to break through the high of the 68th K line, re-entering (just like placing a buy stop above it) is also a good opportunity, and closing out will avoid the risk of price decline.
Such a big bullish line closing at the highest point has a high probability of a second upward movement, with a 60% probability of reaching the measured move. After the bulls reach their target (which is also near the previous day's high), they will start to close out, leading to a price retracement.
