Greetings from a beautiful Saturday evening.
As we enter November, let's explore what lies ahead this month, what events we should anticipate, how we can prepare for them, and take a brief look back at October.
Yesterday, the market experienced some turbulence with the NFP data, and currently, the price is hovering around $69k. On November 5th, we have the highly anticipated US Elections, and while claims about Trump's victory are dominant, polls suggest the race is close. Right after, on November 7th, we have the Fed Interest Rate Decision. The market expects a 25 basis point reduction with 98% probability. There's a full moon on November 16th, and on various days in November, there will be meetings about AI Regulations, particularly in the UK and European Union. This could potentially affect AI products and coins.
Bitcoin
BTC, which fell 7% in the first week of October, subsequently began to rise, increasing by 16.2% and closed October with a 10.85% gain. While the implied volatility for October was 30%, the realized volatility was around 23%.
The price opened November at $70.2k. Monthly implied volatility for November is 37%, and we can expect 14% weekly. Monthly range could be $44k-96k. We're transitioning from times of decreased volatility to increased volatility. Yes, we're entering a month that could have quite high volatility, but high volatility hasn't arrived yet.
Therefore, we might expect 28-32% this month. This gives us a price band of $90-93k to $47-50k. We usually see initial selling pressure at monthly openings. I think the price will move around the $70k band until the election and could leave wicks both up and down.
Since 2013, it has closed red in only 4 out of 11 years. This could be quite a bullish month for us. My expectations are at least a rise to $80k, followed by a correction, and then progression up to the $90-93k range. Red months saw declines of more than 10%, and rises were similarly above 10%.
Ethereum
ETH, which spent October in the range formed after August's decline, closed below the monthly opening. It remained quite weak against BTC and broke important support levels. While October's implied volatility was 27.5%, realized volatility was 17.7%.
ETH entered November at $2515, with monthly implied volatility at 43% and weekly at around 16%. We can express this range as $1425-3600. Similarly, low volatility significantly affects ETH. Here too, with an average volatility expectation of 30-35%, we can consider upward movement to $3300-3400, and downward to $1750-1650.
I think ETH will lose some more strength against BTC and could retreat to 0.032-0.03 in the ETHBTC pair. The ETH weight can be increased with signs of reversal from that region. However, priority remains on the BTC side.
Since 2016, ETH has closed 4 red and 4 green in 8 years, typically making price movements of 10% up or down. I'm a bit worried since it's been moving in range since August and left its lows open. Therefore, it wouldn't surprise me if the price pulls back to $2300.
Overall, I'll look at November 29 contracts and make a plan expecting the price to move at least 10% up or down.
For BTC, the $63k contracts at 10% down are $1600, 10% up price is at $2100. Looking at contract prices, we can see the market expects upward movement. Call contracts are currently seeing more demand. The Put/Call Ratio at 0.59 supports our prediction. This is one of the indicators that the market has raised its expectations due to the possibility of Trump's election. With contrary expectations or news, the price reaction could be in the opposite direction.
Buying both these contracts brings our total cost to $3700. As a reminder, we can buy these contracts as 0.1, and in that case, the cost would be $370.
On the ETH side, things look less positive. The $2200 contract at 10% down is $56, while $2800 is trading at $71. Total cost here will be $127. Looking at the Put/Call Ratio at 0.73 supports our prediction. Call contracts aren't as dominant as in BTC. There's more of an in-between expectation.
This is my general outlook for November. What do you think, and which possibilities do you see as more dominant? Can you estimate how much profit and loss we could make from these contracts?
#btcupdates2024 #NovCryptoOutlook #FedRateDecisions #NovemberProfits #Elections2024
