1/ #spx500 S&P continues to fluctuate near the previous high. The economic data released last week continue to support optimistic economic expectations (durable goods data surged and Q2 GDP revised upward), and the PCE, which is basically as expected, also reflects the downward trend in inflation.

Therefore, the trend of oscillating upward may continue in early September, and the hype of economic soft landing and interest rate cuts will continue. After the September interest rate cuts are implemented and the corporate buyback window is closed, the correction will start.

2/ The big non-agricultural data on Friday will determine whether the narrative of economic soft landing can continue.

September is an eventful month with many major events, and it is also a month with many declines in history.

9.6 Big non-agricultural

9.10 US presidential debate

9.11 US August CPI

9.18 Federal Reserve interest rate meeting

9.29 CZ is released from prison

3/ The decline curse in September also applies to #BTC , with a probability of decline of nearly 80%.

So everyone postponed the expectation of rising to October. After all, after October, the good market seems to last until March next year.

Of course, statistical data focuses on the sample size, so neither of them can be fully trusted, just to increase some thoughts.

4/ Moreover, if the US stock market can continue to rise under the same macroeconomic situation of stability with worries, it depends on strong corporate profits.

The currency circle, which has no innovation, no new narrative, and no incremental funds in the past six months, does lack endogenous rising momentum.

The market has been shouting for a long time about the darkness before dawn, but it turns out that it is darker after the darkness. I don’t know if it’s over, but it’s definitely closer, so we should be more patient at this time.

5/ BTC closed with a long lower shadow on the monthly line, and the overall trend is still in the downward channel;

The weekly line engulfed the gains of last week, and the trend is not optimistic. If the short-term support of 57,000 cannot be supported, it will need to continue to test the previous low and the lower edge of the channel support 52,500-53,500.

The key support is the weekly MA60 support (mid-term rising dividing line) -48,600