1/n The first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which the market has been looking forward to and hyping for half a year, has finally come to an end.

The first interest rate cut was 50, and the median of the dot plot shows that by the end of 24 years, a total of 100 basis points will be cut (or two remaining 25 basis points); it is expected that by 25 years, the interest rate will drop to 3.4%, a reduction of about 100 basis points.

Overall, dovish interest rate cuts + dovish dot plots + Tai Chi speeches

2/n Powell's speech continued his usual Tai Chi style, and the market once fell because he did not give a clear signal.

The message conveyed is still effective:

First, the statement of "firmly committed to supporting full employment" was added;

Second, people's expectations for continued large-scale interest rate cuts in the future were extinguished. Future interest rate cuts may be fast, slow or suspended depending on the data;

Finally, it denied that it was a hasty interest rate cut that lagged behind the situation, and it was still a "preventive interest rate cut"

3/n The last point is the most important. The market previously speculated that a 50% interest rate cut would lead to a sharp drop, which was to believe that the Fed saw worse data that people could not see and cut interest rates hastily and drastically.

This time, Powell still expressed that "the economy is fine, the labor market is very solid, and the interest rate cut is to maintain this situation."

In the past, I personally believed that a 50%+ interest rate cut would be good news as long as it could appease the market

4/n Looking back at the market's reaction, the market rose when the interest rate cut result came out, fell during Powell's speech, and after a short-term ups and downs, it finally accepted the result of this interest rate cut with a relatively calm and optimistic attitude.

#BTC is still optimistic. It has broken through the downward trend line again and stood above it. If it does not fall back to the trend line, it can still rebound.

Small resistance above 63300; big resistance, previous high & upper edge of the channel 65000

n/n If the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is considered to have passed, the next level is Japan's interest rate decision tomorrow.

Currently, the market believes that the Bank of Japan has only a 6% chance of raising interest rates in October, and the probability of raising interest rates at the end of the year is only 38%

This meeting is likely to remain unchanged, but if a hawkish signal of continuing to raise interest rates this year is heard, market confidence will still be shaken. But the impact is definitely not as good as the unexpected interest rate hike in July.

In short, there are opportunities in danger, so let's wait and see.