TradingStats

📊 Community Win Rate & Market Sentiment (FGI) — updated through 2025-08-09

Daily scalping data shows a very weak link between FGI and performance (correlation ≈ -0.07). Win rate does not move linearly with sentiment; the “Extreme Greed” phase is the only zone that consistently drags performance lower.

🔍 Quick interpretation

When FGI sits in the Fear range (26–46), traders tend to be more cautious and take profit earlier, so win rate edges above the overall average. In Greed (55–74), win rate is also slightly higher, but only marginally. By contrast, “Extreme Greed” aligns with FOMO: profit targets are pushed farther, so stops get hit before targets are reached.

📉 Average win rate by FGI band (with sample size)

😨 Extreme Fear (≤25): 44.57% — n=23

😟 Fear (26–46): 45.19% — n=96

😐 Neutral (47–54): 44.71% — n=52

😃 Greed (55–74): 45.24% — n=171 (highest, but only marginally above Fear)

🤑 Extreme Greed (≥75): 42.61% — n=61 (lowest)

Share of days above the overall average win rate (44.72%) by band: Fear 57.29% (highest), Greed 47.95%, Neutral 44.23%, Extreme Fear 43.48%, Extreme Greed 29.51% (lowest). This reinforces that risk rises meaningfully only in “Extreme Greed,” while Fear/Greed at moderate levels is relatively stable.

📈 Implications for scalping

1 - When FGI ≥75: lower TP expectations, keep SL disciplined, and favor partial/early exits when momentum fades.

2 - When FGI 26–74: stick to R:R discipline and avoid stretching TP due to FOMO; the win-rate gap between Fear and Greed is too small to justify wholesale strategy changes.

3 - When FGI ≤25: performance sits near the average; focus on trade management rather than “timing” sentiment extremes.

🧠 Bottom line

FGI does not directly determine win rate, but it is a useful cue for calibrating TP/SL. Avoid extremes during “Extreme Greed” and keep targets realistic to stabilize scalping performance.

#TradingStats #MarketPsychology

📊 Update 2025-08-09, community-wide trading data:

➤ Average win rate is 44.72%

➤ Highest daily win rate: 2025-07-20 at 65.03%. Lowest: 2025-03-28 at 29.38%

➤ Weekday with the highest average win rate: Friday at 45.50%. Lowest: Monday at 43.96%

➤ Highest 7-day average ended on 2025-07-22 at 56.98%. Lowest ended on 2025-03-12 at 36.64%

➤ Days above the average: 188. Days below the average: 215

➤ Days with win rate above 50%: 62. From 40%–50%: 261. Below 40%: 80

#TradingStats #WinRate

Update as of 2025-07-05: Community-wide trading performance

• The average win rate is 44.22%.

• The day with the highest win rate was July 3, 2025, at 58.32%, while the lowest was March 28, 2025, at 29.38%.

• Among weekdays, Friday had the highest average win rate at 45.02%, while Monday had the lowest at 43.34%.

• The 7-day period ending on April 27, 2025, had the highest average win rate at 52.18%. The lowest was the 7-day period ending on March 12, 2025, at 36.64%.

• There were 178 days where the win rate was above average, compared to 189 days below average.

• 45 days had win rates above 50%. 245 days fell within the 40%–50% range, and 77 days were below 40%.

#TradingStats #CryptoAnalysis #WinRateTracker

Update as of 2025-05-31, based on community-wide trading data:

The average win rate is 44.19%.

The highest daily win rate was on 2025-04-27, reaching 57.78%, while the lowest was on 2025-03-28 at 29.38%.

The weekday with the highest average win rate is Friday at 45.33%, and the lowest is Monday at 43.35%.

The 7-day period with the highest average win rate was from 2025-04-21 to 2025-04-27, averaging 52.18%. The lowest was from 2025-03-06 to 2025-03-12, with 36.64%.

There are 164 days with a win rate above the average, and 168 days below it.

There are 38 days with a win rate over 50%, 228 days between 40% and 50%, and 66 days below 40%.

#WinRate #TradingStats #CommunityData

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Update as of 2025-06-07, based on community-wide trading data:

The average win rate is 44.11%.

The highest win rate occurred on 2025-04-27 at 57.78%, while the lowest was on 2025-03-28 at 29.38%.

The day of the week with the highest average win rate is Friday at 45.20%, and the lowest is Monday at 43.19%.

The 7-day period with the highest average win rate is from 2025-04-21 to 2025-04-27, averaging 52.18%. The lowest-performing 7-day period is from 2025-03-06 to 2025-03-12, with an average of 36.64%.

There are 166 days with a win rate above the average, and 173 days below it.

There are 38 days with a win rate above 50%, 232 days between 40% and 50%, and 69 days below 40%.

#winrate #tradingstats #backtest

Update as of 2025-06-21 – Community-wide Trading Data:

The average win rate is 43.98%.

The highest daily win rate was on 2025-04-27, reaching 57.78%, while the lowest was on 2025-03-28, at 29.38%.

The weekday with the highest average win rate is Friday (45.00%), while Monday has the lowest (43.17%).

The 7-day period with the highest average win rate is from 2025-04-21 to 2025-04-27 (52.18%). The lowest is from 2025-03-06 to 2025-03-12 (36.64%).

There are 174 days with above-average win rates and 179 days with below-average win rates.

There are 38 days with win rates above 50%, 239 days between 40%–50%, and 76 days below 40%.

#TradingStats #CommunityAnalysis #WinrateTracker

Update as of 2025-07-18, based on community-wide trading data:

➤ The average win rate is 44.40%

➤ The highest daily win rate was on 2025-07-16, reaching 60.05%, while the lowest was on 2025-03-28 at 29.38%

➤ Friday recorded the highest average win rate across the week at 45.26%, while Monday had the lowest at 43.56%

➤ The best 7-day streak ended on 2025-04-27 with an average win rate of 52.18%, whereas the weakest streak ended on 2025-03-12 with 36.64%

➤ There were 180 days with a win rate above average, and 201 days below average

➤ 50 days had a win rate above 50%, 253 days ranged from 40% to 50%, and 78 days were below 40%

#TradingStats #WinRateAnalysis #MarketInsight

📊 Update as of 2025-07-26 – Community-wide trading performance:

➤ The average win rate is 44.56%

➤ The highest win rate occurred on 2025-07-20, reaching 65.03%, while the lowest was on 2025-03-28 at 29.38%

➤ The day with the highest average win rate is Friday at 45.32%, and the lowest is Monday at 43.85%

➤ The best 7-day average win rate ended on 2025-07-22 at 56.98%, while the worst 7-day average ended on 2025-03-12 at 36.64%

➤ There were 182 days with a win rate above average, and 206 days below average

➤ There were 54 days with a win rate above 50%, 256 days between 40%–50%, and 78 days below 40%

#TradingStats #WinRateAnalysis #CryptoCommunity