๐ Community Win Rate & Market Sentiment (FGI) โ updated through 2025-08-09
Daily scalping data shows a very weak link between FGI and performance (correlation โ -0.07). Win rate does not move linearly with sentiment; the โExtreme Greedโ phase is the only zone that consistently drags performance lower.
๐ Quick interpretation
When FGI sits in the Fear range (26โ46), traders tend to be more cautious and take profit earlier, so win rate edges above the overall average. In Greed (55โ74), win rate is also slightly higher, but only marginally. By contrast, โExtreme Greedโ aligns with FOMO: profit targets are pushed farther, so stops get hit before targets are reached.
๐ Average win rate by FGI band (with sample size)
๐จ Extreme Fear (โค25): 44.57% โ n=23
๐ Fear (26โ46): 45.19% โ n=96
๐ Neutral (47โ54): 44.71% โ n=52
๐ Greed (55โ74): 45.24% โ n=171 (highest, but only marginally above Fear)
๐ค Extreme Greed (โฅ75): 42.61% โ n=61 (lowest)
Share of days above the overall average win rate (44.72%) by band: Fear 57.29% (highest), Greed 47.95%, Neutral 44.23%, Extreme Fear 43.48%, Extreme Greed 29.51% (lowest). This reinforces that risk rises meaningfully only in โExtreme Greed,โ while Fear/Greed at moderate levels is relatively stable.
๐ Implications for scalping
1 - When FGI โฅ75: lower TP expectations, keep SL disciplined, and favor partial/early exits when momentum fades.
2 - When FGI 26โ74: stick to R:R discipline and avoid stretching TP due to FOMO; the win-rate gap between Fear and Greed is too small to justify wholesale strategy changes.
3 - When FGI โค25: performance sits near the average; focus on trade management rather than โtimingโ sentiment extremes.
๐ง Bottom line
FGI does not directly determine win rate, but it is a useful cue for calibrating TP/SL. Avoid extremes during โExtreme Greedโ and keep targets realistic to stabilize scalping performance.