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025/04/04 Is there still hope for tariff stick?
Trump's tariff stick has struck the whole world
Is there still hope for the cryptocurrency circle?

We all know
Bitcoin is priced in US dollars
Therefore, in theory,
the correlation coefficient between the US dollar and Bitcoin is negative,
meaning that when the dollar rises, Bitcoin tends to fall,
and when the dollar depreciates, Bitcoin tends to rise.

However, due to the time required for capital effects to ferment,
there will be a lag in the reaction of Bitcoin prices.

Next, let's look at
the relationship chart between the US dollar index and Bitcoin.
The purple line in the chart represents the US dollar index,
and the candlesticks represent the price trend of Bitcoin.

We can observe
that when the US dollar index shows a depreciation trend,
Bitcoin will start to react with an upward movement weeks to months later.
Conversely, when the US dollar index shows an appreciation trend,
Bitcoin will begin to decline weeks to months later.

Next, let's look at
the US dollar index, which started to show an appreciation trend at the end of September last year,
reaching its first peak in mid-January.
The process lasted a total of 108 days,
and Bitcoin's first peak
has now also experienced 107 days.

Therefore,
Bitcoin's low point may appear in the coming days,
and since the US dollar index reached its peak in mid-January,
it has started to show a depreciation trend for 80 days.
Thus, Bitcoin has a chance to reach a low point in a few days
and then launch a rebound lasting 80 days until mid-June.

Whether the rebound can continue further
depends on whether the US dollar index can continue to depreciate.
Therefore, the suggestion here is
that in the coming days, one can start to gradually position long positions
to take advantage of a rebound,
and then adjust to a long-term short position based on the performance of the US dollar index.

#Market analysis for reference only #Does not constitute investment advice
#比特幣 #BTC #ETH #SOL #JJ比特頻道

2025/03/30 Halving Cycle, Don't Be Superstitious!

Are you still superstitious about the Bitcoin halving market?
The price of Bitcoin is 82,390 yuan. Let's first compare the market trends after Bitcoin's four halvings!

There is a common misconception in the market that how the past halving cycles performed, every future halving should perform the same way. However, the market overlooks that the amount of Bitcoin reduced after each halving has become increasingly smaller, and its influence will also decrease.

Currently, the total amount of Bitcoin in circulation has reached 95%, which means that the amount of Bitcoin affected by the halving effect is only 5% remaining. After the entry of Bitcoin ETFs, the funds from Wall Street have created a much greater correlation with the Bitcoin cycle.

Taking the rainbow chart as an example, the original bull market that lasted for years has actually changed its curvature after Wall Street entered the market. For Bitcoin, what we should focus on now is not the so-called halving effect, but rather understanding the dynamics of the Wall Street market and the performance of the U.S. economic data.

Taking the Nasdaq index of U.S. stocks as an example, in recent years, the correlation between Bitcoin and it has significantly increased. The purple line in the chart represents the price trend of Bitcoin. In the past two years, the trend of the Nasdaq index has almost been consistent with Bitcoin's correlation, so we should pay more attention to the trend of the Nasdaq index.

Recently, the Nasdaq has experienced a significant pullback. We can check the Fibonacci ratios from the past decade when the Nasdaq has had major pullbacks!
In 2018, it pulled back 0.5, in 2020, it pulled back 0.7862, in 2022, it pulled back 0.6182, and in 2025, it is currently pulling back 0.236.

As it is not yet stable, the best trading strategy right now is to wait with hands off!

#Market analysis is for reference only #Not investment advice
#比特幣 #BTC #ETH #SOL #JJ比特頻道

2025/04/25 Trump Family Economic Gamble

Recently, Trump's policy maneuvers have once again attracted global attention. In just two days, 500,000 people surged onto the streets in the United States, with 1,200 anti-Trump rallies fervently unfolding, resembling a grand carnival against Trump.
Amid this upheaval, Trump's approval ratings have plummeted, but surprisingly, his approval rating is still at 43%, higher than Biden's approval rating when he left office.

The reason Trump has such a loyal fanbase largely stems from the unwavering support of the 'redneck' group. These 'rednecks' mostly come from the lower and middle-income classes in the United States, firmly believing in Trump's push for the return of manufacturing to America, even willing to endure rising living costs, hoping that the return of manufacturing will bring a large number of job opportunities, returning to the golden years of America 50 years ago.

However, the return of manufacturing is not an easy task, but Trump's inflammatory rhetoric makes the 'rednecks' believe it unquestioningly. Trump knows how to manipulate the emotions of this group; his policies on tariffs and the return of manufacturing are more about consolidating his core voter base than based on realistic economic considerations.

Trump's tariff policy has been criticized as shortsighted and highly speculative. He views tariffs as a low-cost tool, using arbitrary adjustments to extort the globe. This approach not only failed to achieve the desired effects but also triggered uncertainty in the global market and economic burdens domestically in the United States.

Furthermore, Trump's performance in international affairs has also faced scrutiny. His intervention in the Ukraine war has failed to yield any substantial results and has instead been ignored by various parties. His policies lack long-term planning and are more about short-term political expediency.

# Market analysis for reference only # Does not constitute investment advice
#比特幣 #BTC #ETH #SOL #JJ比特頻道

2025/03/31 Bottom Divergence, Rebound Opportunity!

The short-term market has shown signs of a rebound opportunity; we can strive for a bounce, but please be sure to set stop losses!

The current time is 8:42 AM on March 31. The current price of Bitcoin is 81,688 yuan.
The daily structure of Bitcoin is still in a bearish trend!
The daily structure of ETH is also in a bearish trend!
The BTC exchange rate of ETH is also in a bearish trend!
However, viewed on an hourly basis, BTC has shown bottom divergence, making a rebound opportunity possible at any time!

From an hourly perspective, ETH also has a rebound opportunity at any moment!
And the ETH BTC exchange rate also presents a short-term rebound opportunity!

The current structure is similar to the previous trend; after bottom divergence, with nowhere to fall, a rebound is brewing, but this rebound does not change the long-term bearish trend. At this time, one can buy on dips, or those who already hold long positions can reduce their exposure after the rebound.

#Market analysis for reference only #Does not constitute investment advice
#比特幣 #BTC #ETH #SOL #JJ比特頻道

2025/04/26 Once in a Century Counter-Trend Change

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warns that the current tariff war is merely a facade, with a deeper crisis lying in the systematic collapse of global currency, politics, and geopolitical order. In April 2025, the world witnessed a full escalation of the China-U.S. tariff war. On April 2, U.S. President Trump announced a 10% tariff on all products exported to the U.S. and significantly raised tariffs on 60 trade-violating countries, with China becoming a focal point, increasing the rate to 54%. This move triggered severe fluctuations in global financial markets, causing U.S. stocks to plunge.

China quickly retaliated, announcing a 34% tariff on U.S. imported products on April 4. On April 10, the U.S. escalated tariffs to 125%, and China took equally tough measures on April 11. Tesla China stopped selling U.S. imported models due to tariff adjustments, highlighting the profound impact of tariff policies on corporate operations.

As two important engines of the global economy, the escalation of the trade war between China and the U.S. has raised concerns about a global economic recession, with the IMF issuing warnings about spillover effects. Commentators point out that there are currently no signs of direct dialogue between the leaders, and tensions continue to rise.

Against this backdrop, Ray Dalio warns that the current tariff war is merely a facade, with a deeper crisis lying in the systematic collapse of global currency, politics, and geopolitical order. He believes that the five forces driving the current long cycle include the collapse of the monetary order, political polarization in the U.S., geopolitical restructuring, natural disasters, and technological revolution.

#Market analysis for reference only #Does not constitute investment advice
#比特幣 #BTC #ETH #SOL #JJ比特頻道

2025/04/24 Trump USD1
Trump's launch of the Prump coin was seen as a political meme hype, but now his introduction of USD1 shows more ambitious plans.

USD1 is a blockchain dollar pegged to the US dollar, targeting Swift and aiming for central bank-level clearing. It is backed by US Treasury bonds and cash collateral, and is hosted by BitGo. On the surface, it appears clean, compliant, and stable; however, its true aim is not retail investors or exchanges, but rather the dominance over central banks, sovereign funds, and the entire multinational clearing system.
USD1 is controlled by the WLFI company under the Trump family, attempting to bypass Swift and the Federal Reserve to create a whole new on-chain dollar order. If a country like Saudi Arabia wants to convert its oil revenue dollars into assets, it can bypass traditional clearing systems and settle directly on-chain, while control remains with WLFI.

Trump's ambitions have gained more support. In March 2025, he hosted the first cryptocurrency summit at the White House in US history, announcing the establishment of a Bitcoin strategic reserve and promoting regulatory legislation for the crypto industry, showcasing America's ambition to lead the settlement rules of the next digital financial cycle. The launch of USD1 coincides with this.
The advantage of USD1 lies in its clear compliance route, backed by US Treasury bonds and cash collateral, and the Trump family's strong political resources. If it can penetrate national-level institutions or even the central bank clearing system, it may become a prototype of an on-chain version of Swift, gradually establishing a stablecoin clearing network. However, risks cannot be ignored; WLFI's fund flows are opaque, the family's profit-sharing mechanism is undisclosed, and it is highly tied to political figures, posing policy risks. If it loses credibility or is seen as a political family.

#Market analysis for reference only #Does not constitute investment advice
#比特幣 #BTC #ETH #SOL #JJ比特頻道

2025/05/04 Real Estate Crisis Stress Test #比特幣 #BTC #ETH #SOL #JJ比特頻道

$2.7 Trillion Real Estate Crisis: A Comprehensive Stress Test of the Financial System

The global financial system is quietly facing a comprehensive crisis, with the severe turbulence in the real estate market being just the tip of the iceberg. Tech stocks are revising earnings downwards, bond yields are skyrocketing, and commercial real estate—once considered a safe haven for conservative investors—is now being squeezed by rising interest rates and liquidity pressures from all sides, teetering on the brink. From the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank to office rents being halved, this is not an isolated incident but rather a spreading financial fissure.

Commercial Real Estate: The Invisible Fuse of the Financial System
The crisis in commercial real estate stems from a structurally flawed time bomb. $2.7 trillion in commercial real estate debt, mostly short-term high-leverage loans with maturities of 3-5 years, relies on rental income for repayment. However, the concentrated maturity of these loans coupled with soaring interest rates is triggering a Perfect Storm.

Rising Interest Rates: Interest rates that were close to 0% in 2020 have now surged to 5.5%, with interest expenses doubling and refinancing becoming difficult.

Plummeting Rents: The national office vacancy rate is approaching 20%, with cities like San Francisco and New York exceeding 30%, while remote work has sharply reduced demand.

Banking Risks: The primary holders of these debts are mid-sized banks, which account for over 40% of their balance sheets. The decline in asset values directly threatens bank capital ratios, triggering credit rating downgrades and withdrawal risks.
Cities, Pensions, and Systemic Crisis

#Market analysis for reference only #Not an investment recommendation
#比特幣 #BTC #ETH #SOL #JJ比特頻道

2025/04/18 Risk Warning, Large Inflow!

Risk Warning
Perhaps a larger drop is about to arrive!
Bitcoin may drop to 72,000 yuan
Ethereum may drop to 1,100 yuan

In the past 10 days
Bitcoin has broken through the descending trend line on the daily chart
And has strongly consolidated above the trend line for the seventh day
Additionally, the US dollar continues to decline
Which is favorable for driving Bitcoin's rise

However, on April 16
The ETH wallet on the exchange
Saw a net inflow of up to 530,000 coins
In the past, whenever there was such an abnormal large inflow
It was accompanied by very significant drops
Here, let’s prepare for the worst
Assuming that this high inflow of ETH
Will drive another significant drop
Where will the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum go?

According to the weekly chart of ETH, the target based on the M head and neck line
The drop target is set at 1,100 yuan
There is still a 30% room for decline
Additionally, Bitcoin based on the current daily M head and neck line
The equivalent drop target will be set at 72,000 yuan
There is still a 15% room for decline
This also coincides with
The inertia that altcoins drop twice as much as Bitcoin

Currently, although Bitcoin has broken through the descending trend line
And has upward momentum driven by the depreciation of the US dollar
There is also the risk of large whales selling into the exchange
Therefore, please make sure to set stop losses
To prevent the next wave of major corrections!

#Market analysis for reference only #Not investment advice
#比特幣 #BTC #ETH #SOL #JJ比特頻道

2025/05/03 How the U.S. Debt Crisis Affects Global Wealth

$36 trillion in debt! The eve of the eruption of America's debt mountain.
As the world focuses on countries in debt crisis like Argentina and Greece, the true debt giant, the United States, is quietly edging towards a dangerous brink. In 2025, the U.S. national debt officially surpasses $36 trillion and continues to soar at a breakneck pace. Official forecasts indicate that this year, U.S. national debt interest payments will exceed $1 trillion for the first time, meaning that about $3 billion a day will be used solely for repaying debt interest. This enormous sum could have been allocated to education, national defense, infrastructure, and other critical areas for people's livelihoods, but now it has become a slave to debt.
How did the United States, the world's most powerful economy, come to this point?
This is not merely the fault of a single politician but rather the crystallization of deep-seated systemic logic over the past 50 years. In 1971, President Nixon ended the gold standard, decoupling the dollar from gold, and initiated an infinite cycle of "printing money + issuing debt." Since then, whether it was the 9/11 attacks, the financial crisis, or the outbreak of the pandemic, the U.S. has relied on debt to weather crises, with national debt soaring from less than $6 trillion in 2000 to the current $36 trillion.
The so-called growth of the U.S. economy is merely an illusion built upon a mountain of debt. As global faith in U.S. debt as risk-free wavers, the foundation of the American financial system quietly loosens.
The Three Cracks of U.S. Debt Collapse
Crack One: Uncontrolled Interest Payments. In 2025, for every $100 in tax revenue the U.S. earns, it must first allocate over $10 to repay debt interest. This money holds no real economic value and is merely the heavy price of past debts.
Crack Two: Foreign Capital Withdrawal. China has reduced its holdings of U.S. debt for seven consecutive months, bringing its holdings down to the lowest level since 2009;

#比特幣 #BTC #ETH #SOL #JJ比特頻道

2025/03/17 FED Rate Cut! Will it Rise?

Can a rate cut drive the rise in the cryptocurrency market?

Regarding this question, we can first refer to the impact on the U.S. stock market from the four rate cuts in the past 20 years!

The K-line in the chart represents the U.S. Nasdaq trend, while the pink line indicates the U.S. FED federal funds rate. It is evident here that the past four rate cuts did not drive the rise in U.S. stocks; rather, it was in a low-interest-rate environment that U.S. stocks had the momentum for continuous growth.

Additionally, the U.S. stock market and the cryptocurrency market are highly correlated, so when U.S. stocks rise, the cryptocurrency market will also rise. Currently, the FED rate is 4.33%, so to drop to a 1% rate level, it needs to decrease by 12 basis points.

According to the interest rate decisions, the maximum decrease in 2025 is 4 basis points, while in 2026 it must decrease by at least 8 basis points, thus allowing for a potential low-interest-rate level of 1% by 2027.

This means that the next bull market could potentially restart as early as 2027.

#Market analysis for reference only #Does not constitute investment advice
#比特幣 #BTC #ETH #SOL #JJ比特頻道

2025/04/28 The fatal consequences of tariff policy #比特幣 #BTC #ETH #SOL #JJ比特頻道

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield once broke through 4.5%, and the U.S. dollar index also fell to a new low since the COVID-19 pandemic. Against this backdrop, Wall Street elites are becoming increasingly pessimistic about the future of the US economy.

The U.S. financial market has been experiencing severe fluctuations recently. U.S. Treasury bonds, which are known as the world's best safe-haven assets, have been sold off frantically, attracting widespread attention from the market. Since Trump announced reciprocal tariffs on April 2, the United States has suffered a historically rare "triple kill" of stocks, bonds, and currencies, with U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, and the U.S. dollar continuing to plummet.

U.S. Treasury bonds are the core of the U.S. financial system, and the decline in their prices reflects the market's shaken confidence in them. Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that China needs to be cautious about its purchases of U.S. debt, while Federal Reserve Chairman Powell also said that the Fed is facing unprecedented challenges in its 50 years. In this regard, this article will deeply analyze the reasons behind the sell-off of U.S. Treasuries and the chain reactions it may trigger.

To understand the relationship between U.S. debt and the U.S. dollar, you need to first understand the U.S. dollar issuance mechanism. The issuance of US dollars does not rely solely on the Federal Reserve's printing press, but requires corresponding collateral as support. In the past, gold was the main collateral, but now U.S. Treasuries have become one of the most important collateral for the U.S. dollar. U.S. Treasuries account for as much as 67% of the Federal Reserve's assets, which makes the price stability of U.S. Treasuries crucial to the stability of the U.S. dollar.

However, the stability of U.S. debt is threatened by multiple factors. First, the Trump administration’s tariff policy has caused global economic uncertainty, leading to a decline in investors’ confidence in U.S. debt.
#Marketanalysis is for reference only#Doesnot constitute investment advice
#比特幣 #BTC #ETH #SOL #JJ比特頻道

2025/03/27 Short more long empty!

Currently, the price of Bitcoin has reached 87,300 yuan. From the perspective of market sentiment, there is a chance for a short-term upward breakthrough.

First, looking from the ETF perspective, there has been continuous inflow for several days, and the overall outflow trend has temporarily eased.

Next, looking at the Bitcoin wallets on the exchanges, there has been an outflow of over 30,000 coins in recent days. In previous instances of such large outflows, the short-term market has seen considerable increases.

This was the first large outflow at the end of May last year!
This was the second large outflow in January this year!
This is the third large outflow in recent days!

We can observe a common phenomenon: after each large outflow, there is often a short-term upward breakthrough, but the long-term trend remains downward. We can place short orders in the trading zone around 94,500!

#Market analysis is for reference only #Does not constitute investment advice
#比特幣 #BTC #ETH #SOL #JJ比特頻道

2025/03/25 A bigger thunder! Black Swan!

#Market analysis for reference only #Does not constitute investment advice
#比特幣 #BTC #ETH #SOL #JJ比特頻道

2025/03/26 Downtrend Breaks, Downtrend Warning!

Do not view rebounds in a downtrend as recoveries! In a downtrend, any rebound is a chance to escape!

Let's quickly review the current price trends of major assets:
Bitcoin - in a downtrend, any rebound is a chance to escape!
Ethereum - in a downtrend, any rebound is a chance to escape!
ETH/BTC - exchange rate is in a downtrend, any rebound in altcoins is a chance to escape!
Tesla - has broken below the uptrend!
Google - has broken below the uptrend!
Amazon - has broken below the uptrend!
META - has broken below the uptrend!
Microsoft - has broken below the uptrend!
Apple - has broken below the uptrend!
NVIDIA - has broken below the uptrend!
Nasdaq Index - has broken below the uptrend!

When one asset after another breaks below the uptrend, do you still lack risk awareness? Are you still expecting the so-called bull market to arrive?

#Market analysis for reference only #Does not constitute investment advice
#比特幣 #BTC #ETH #SOL #JJ比特頻道

2025/03/18 Has BTC entered a bear market?

The current price of Bitcoin is 83,200 yuan

The figure shows the plan for this wave of market conditions. It can be seen that, similar to the previous structure, there is an initial rising section, followed by the main rising section, and finally a final rising section. As the market retreated, it fell below the rising trend line, and then a two-year bear market began.

It is still unknown whether the subsequent market will be the same as the previous wave, but what is known is that if there is no continuous and larger pullback in the future, Bitcoin will lack the real momentum to rise.

This can be supported by the next picture. The purple-red curve above is the trend of Bitcoin, and the K-line below is the market share of USDT. From here we can see that whenever the market share of USDT is at a relatively high level, it will always lead to a wave of Bitcoin's rising market.

When USDT's market share is at a relatively low level, due to insufficient liquidity, BTC will fall sharply and turn bearish.

At this time, USDT's market share is at a relatively low point, and the room for upward movement is much greater than the room for downward movement, which means that Bitcoin has insufficient room for upward movement, but a lot of room for downward movement.

Finally, let’s look at the market trend from the perspective of Bitcoin ETF. The blue line in the figure is the cumulative stock of Bitcoin ETF, and the yellow line is the Bitcoin price. In the red box, the outflow of Bitcoin is only 6%, but it caused a drop of 13,000 yuan.

If this outflow trend does not change, according to the 80/20 rule, another outflow of 14% may create a larger decline, and the target price will be 56,000 yuan.

When the price falls to this point, it means that Bitcoin has officially entered a bear market.
#Marketanalysis is for reference only#Doesnot constitute investment advice
#比特幣 #BTC #ETH #SOL #JJ比特頻道

2025/05/04 Real Estate Crisis Stress Test (Part 2)

Bank Credit Contraction: Increased bad debts force banks to reduce lending, public construction and infrastructure funding for local governments get stuck, further worsening urban economies.
Pension Crisis: Investment losses in real estate from pension funds require government to cover the gap, leading to increased taxes or reduced services, with everyone paying for the past overvaluation of assets.
Five Strategies for Different Identities

Real Estate Investors: Review leverage structure, ensure cash flow can support 12-24 months, wait for interest rates to drop. Consider selling assets for cash to avoid forced liquidation.
Office Workers: Strengthen transferable skills (such as remote work, project management), establish 6-9 months of emergency funds, develop side hustles or additional income streams to enhance personal adaptability.
Retirees: Review retirement fund allocation, reduce volatile assets, shift towards short-term bonds and government principal-protected instruments. Check if policies and annuities are tied to real estate, and adjust in batches if necessary.
Entrepreneurs and SMEs: Utilize shared spaces and flexible offices, negotiate backup funding with banks in advance. If holding commercial properties, shift to short-term rentals and shared uses to improve space efficiency.
Young Investors: Now is the time to save cash, establish cash flow, and accumulate knowledge and sensitivity to assets. Study one type of asset each week and seize opportunities when the market hits the bottom.
Conclusion: From Passive Observation to Active Control
This crisis is not a minor adjustment in the real estate market, but a stress test of the entire financial and social commitment mechanism. The real threat lies not in market fluctuations but in our blindness and ignorance towards risks. Starting today, build your own risk radar and financial defense network, becoming a navigator in the storm rather than a passive victim. For more exciting content, please follow JJ-Bit Channel.
#Not Investment Advice
#比特幣 #BTC #ETH #SOL #JJ比特頻道