2025/04/26 Once in a Century Counter-Trend Change
Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warns that the current tariff war is merely a facade, with a deeper crisis lying in the systematic collapse of global currency, politics, and geopolitical order. In April 2025, the world witnessed a full escalation of the China-U.S. tariff war. On April 2, U.S. President Trump announced a 10% tariff on all products exported to the U.S. and significantly raised tariffs on 60 trade-violating countries, with China becoming a focal point, increasing the rate to 54%. This move triggered severe fluctuations in global financial markets, causing U.S. stocks to plunge.
China quickly retaliated, announcing a 34% tariff on U.S. imported products on April 4. On April 10, the U.S. escalated tariffs to 125%, and China took equally tough measures on April 11. Tesla China stopped selling U.S. imported models due to tariff adjustments, highlighting the profound impact of tariff policies on corporate operations.
As two important engines of the global economy, the escalation of the trade war between China and the U.S. has raised concerns about a global economic recession, with the IMF issuing warnings about spillover effects. Commentators point out that there are currently no signs of direct dialogue between the leaders, and tensions continue to rise.
Against this backdrop, Ray Dalio warns that the current tariff war is merely a facade, with a deeper crisis lying in the systematic collapse of global currency, politics, and geopolitical order. He believes that the five forces driving the current long cycle include the collapse of the monetary order, political polarization in the U.S., geopolitical restructuring, natural disasters, and technological revolution.
#Market analysis for reference only #Does not constitute investment advice
