2025/03/18 Has BTC entered a bear market?
The current price of Bitcoin is 83,200 yuan
The figure shows the plan for this wave of market conditions. It can be seen that, similar to the previous structure, there is an initial rising section, followed by the main rising section, and finally a final rising section. As the market retreated, it fell below the rising trend line, and then a two-year bear market began.
It is still unknown whether the subsequent market will be the same as the previous wave, but what is known is that if there is no continuous and larger pullback in the future, Bitcoin will lack the real momentum to rise.
This can be supported by the next picture. The purple-red curve above is the trend of Bitcoin, and the K-line below is the market share of USDT. From here we can see that whenever the market share of USDT is at a relatively high level, it will always lead to a wave of Bitcoin's rising market.
When USDT's market share is at a relatively low level, due to insufficient liquidity, BTC will fall sharply and turn bearish.
At this time, USDT's market share is at a relatively low point, and the room for upward movement is much greater than the room for downward movement, which means that Bitcoin has insufficient room for upward movement, but a lot of room for downward movement.
Finally, let’s look at the market trend from the perspective of Bitcoin ETF. The blue line in the figure is the cumulative stock of Bitcoin ETF, and the yellow line is the Bitcoin price. In the red box, the outflow of Bitcoin is only 6%, but it caused a drop of 13,000 yuan.
If this outflow trend does not change, according to the 80/20 rule, another outflow of 14% may create a larger decline, and the target price will be 56,000 yuan.
When the price falls to this point, it means that Bitcoin has officially entered a bear market.
#Marketanalysis is for reference only#Doesnot constitute investment advice
