2025/03/30 Halving Cycle, Don't Be Superstitious!
Are you still superstitious about the Bitcoin halving market?
The price of Bitcoin is 82,390 yuan. Let's first compare the market trends after Bitcoin's four halvings!
There is a common misconception in the market that how the past halving cycles performed, every future halving should perform the same way. However, the market overlooks that the amount of Bitcoin reduced after each halving has become increasingly smaller, and its influence will also decrease.
Currently, the total amount of Bitcoin in circulation has reached 95%, which means that the amount of Bitcoin affected by the halving effect is only 5% remaining. After the entry of Bitcoin ETFs, the funds from Wall Street have created a much greater correlation with the Bitcoin cycle.
Taking the rainbow chart as an example, the original bull market that lasted for years has actually changed its curvature after Wall Street entered the market. For Bitcoin, what we should focus on now is not the so-called halving effect, but rather understanding the dynamics of the Wall Street market and the performance of the U.S. economic data.
Taking the Nasdaq index of U.S. stocks as an example, in recent years, the correlation between Bitcoin and it has significantly increased. The purple line in the chart represents the price trend of Bitcoin. In the past two years, the trend of the Nasdaq index has almost been consistent with Bitcoin's correlation, so we should pay more attention to the trend of the Nasdaq index.
Recently, the Nasdaq has experienced a significant pullback. We can check the Fibonacci ratios from the past decade when the Nasdaq has had major pullbacks!
In 2018, it pulled back 0.5, in 2020, it pulled back 0.7862, in 2022, it pulled back 0.6182, and in 2025, it is currently pulling back 0.236.
As it is not yet stable, the best trading strategy right now is to wait with hands off!
#Market analysis is for reference only #Not investment advice