Predicting when the stock market will return to a bull market or continue in a bear market is a complex issue, as the stock market is influenced by various factors, including economic conditions, policy adjustments, market sentiment, etc. Based on historical data and expert analysis, the A-share market does exhibit a cyclical pattern of alternating bull and bear markets, but the specific timing of each bull-bear transition is difficult to predict accurately.
1. Historical Bull-Bear Cycles:
• Historically, the A-share market has experienced ten bear markets and is currently in the eleventh round of a bear market.
• Among the previous ten bear markets, the longest lasted for more than four years.
• The current bear market began in June 2015 and has lasted for over four years, approaching the historical longest cycle.
• The duration of bull markets is gradually shortening, while the cycles of bear markets are extending.
2. Current Market Conditions:
• Although the index is at 2800 points, the actual level may be lower, close to the valuation bottom.
• A policy bottom has appeared, and the market may be in a bottoming area.
• There is a lack of significant improvement in fundamental factors, such as new stock issuances and adjustments to transaction taxes.
3. Conditions for Bull Market Return:
• The market needs positive changes in fundamentals, such as economic recovery and improved corporate earnings.
• Policy measures may require stronger positive actions, such as reductions in transaction taxes and restrictions on shareholder sell-offs.
• Although the introduction of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board brings new opportunities, it may divert funds in the short term and increase market uncertainty.
4. Uncertain Factors:
• Cyclical economic adjustments may affect corporate earnings and market confidence.
• The effectiveness of technological innovation and policy reforms needs time to be validated.
• The global economic environment and international situation also have significant impacts on the A-share market. In summary, although the current market may be in a bottoming area, the return of a bull market still requires improvements in fundamentals and further policy support. Investors should remain patient, pay attention to market dynamics, and manage risks effectively.
