Is Bitcoin really in a bear market? Let me tell you about it for ten bucks!
1. First, look at how the price is moving.
Bitcoin is currently swaying at $30,000, down 50% from last year's high of $60,000. This is indeed quite miserable!
But don’t panic! A bear market requires a drop of more than six months; it has only been a little over six months, just like falling from a mountain top and not yet reaching the bottom.
Attention! This is not to comfort you; it’s an objective fact!
2. Bitcoin's "roller coaster nature".
This thing can drop 10% in three days and rise 20% in three days; it’s a common occurrence!
Let me give you a real example:
Last November, it crashed 30% → then surged 40% in December → now it's dropping back again... The conclusion is that short-term fluctuations do not count as a bear market; only long-term does!
3. How are institutions expressing their views?
BlackRock's ETF is secretly increasing its holdings every day, and today it invested another $120 million! Even JPMorgan says, "Bitcoin will become a mainstream asset"; the big shots are afraid to mention the bear market! I’ll quietly say that they might be taking the chance to pick up bargains!
4. Key indicators reveal the mystery.
Trading volume: Currently at $2.8 billion daily, which is half of last year's peak, indicating that no one is panicking and selling off.
Open interest: The total value of ETFs is $46.2 billion, up 60% since the beginning of the year, indicating that long-term funds are steadily taking over.
Halving cycle: The halving is due in April 2024; miner rewards will be cut in half, and historically, prices must rise in the six months leading up to it.
5. Don't be fooled by a 'fake bear market'!
Characteristics of a false bear market: only dropping without rising. Right now, it’s actually a consolidation phase; trading volume is ice-cold, but recently some institutions have been buying secretly. There are no negative news, and the Fed's rate hikes are slowing down + the situation in the Middle East is uncertain, which instead means that negative news has mostly played out.
The real bear market signals have not yet appeared: consecutive three-month drops below $30,000, a 50% drop in ETF holdings, or the introduction of a "global ban on Bitcoin" kind of nuclear policy.
Advice for ordinary people: In the short term, lay low. Right now, it's like boiling hot pot; don't rush to grab the bottom. Wait until the soup cools and the price stabilizes before eating meat!
Long-term accumulation at low prices: Invest a fixed amount of money every month, just like dollar-cost averaging in milk tea—your average cost keeps decreasing.
(For example: investing $500 a month for a year means $6,000, which can buy 0.2 Bitcoin now!)
Don't panic if you're stuck: If you currently hold Bitcoin, remember! When others are fearful, be greedy! Moutai also dropped 70% back in the day, and now its stock price is almost doubled!
Let me also share a risk warning; it's a harsh truth!
In the event of a black swan, such as a war in the Middle East or a crisis in the U.S., be prepared for a single-day drop of 5% and get ready to be scared...
How to cope: Don't go all in; keep enough cash for 3-6 months of living expenses.
Also, policy risks like China/Hong Kong suddenly banning it → short-term halving, but it must rise in the long term, so accumulate in batches; don’t bet everything at once.
Conclusion: Bitcoin is currently like a cable car halfway up a mountain. Those afraid of heights feel like they are about to fall off a cliff and panic about the bear market, while the bold see it as a bottom-fishing opportunity. But the truth is: the cable car is still going up! Predictions from institutions for a target price of $80,000 in 2024 are flying everywhere.
Finally, I'll share a family secret with you:
"Bitcoin is not a casino, it’s a piggy bank. It won't break if the door is closed, but it can appreciate when the door is open!"
As for the upcoming layout direction, I plan to help everyone find those altcoin opportunities for huge profits, with expected returns of 10 times being possible. Like and comment, and I’ll guide you in laying out for the whole bull market!
