投资逻辑

After a 150,000 drop and liquidation, I finally understand: indicators are probabilities, not divine orders

Having just experienced a single-day drop of over 8% in Bitcoin and 150,000 people liquidated with 3.6 billion at stake, many must be staring at a screen full of technical charts in confusion: How did the promised support level fall instantly? How did the Fibonacci retracement target get breached early?

This is the most genuine truth in the cryptocurrency world: all indicators are essentially probabilistic tools that are not 100% buy or sell commands.

Look, before the halving, many people relied on historical cycle indicators to buy at the bottom, only to see Bitcoin drop by 15% post-halving; some were watching fear/greed index reversal signals, but didn't realize that panic emotions could continue to spread in a "perfect storm." Elliott Wave theory, candlestick structures, and price-volume relationships all became utterly fragile under the macro shocks from the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and ETF capital outflows. Even the previously celebrated hedging mechanisms could fail during a liquidity crisis, causing stablecoins to directly decouple by 38%.

If every indicator is treated as a "certain truth," it will only lead to a vicious cycle of "learning more, losing more." Just like before this drop, how many were misled by short-term technical signals of a rebound, ignoring the risks at the logical level?

This is also why I insisted on "cash is king" recently—though being in cash is boring, it can easily outperform 90% of those chasing up and down. In response to the question of "why not jump into the bull market," I can only say: blindly entering when the logic is invalid is not only irresponsible to one’s own funds but also risks dragging down friends who follow me.

I will have more data shortly, but everyone should remember: looking at data is about observing probability trends, not finding certain answers. Abandoning the faith in indicators is essential to survive the wild swings in the cryptocurrency market.

#Cryptocurrency Market #投资逻辑 #远离确定性陷阱

Wake up! Stop using Buffett's outdated playbook to trade 21st-century coins. Every day, someone uses Buffett's approach to criticize the crypto space, claiming that a minimalist lifestyle is the true essence of wealth. Today, I am here to teach you 'spiritual shareholders': **Buffett's success lies in his playing a 'simple model' game that hasn't changed for decades.** He buys Coca-Cola, railroads, and businesses with models that won't change for decades. But what are we playing in the crypto space? It's 'hell mode'! Technology iterates daily, trends change weekly, and you talk to me about value investing? Which project can survive two bull and bear markets? Applying Buffett's philosophy to Web3 is like using an old map to find a treasure that moves every day. It's not that he's wrong, but **his era has long passed.** In the crypto world, cognition and speed are your only weapons. #Buffett #Web3 #投资逻辑

⚠️ Is a bloodbath of 1300 dollars not the bottom yet? Ethereum has fallen out of the golden pit—getting rich or being buried all depends on your mindset! 💥

From $4100 plunging to $1385, this massive drop in Ethereum has directly wiped out countless beliefs of "buying with eyes closed." Those who shouted, "The bull market is here!" probably don’t even dare to open their apps now.

But if we look at it calmly, a crash isn’t necessarily a bad thing; it actually exposes the value bottom line. If no one is throwing real money into the market, then it doesn’t deserve to crash at all. From a technical perspective, the weekly chart has just hit a key support level, and it has formed a volume-increasing doji star, which is often a turning point signal for a bull market.

🔍 Don’t just focus on the price drop; truly smart people look at these:

Technical support exists

Policy-wise, Web3 continues to advance

From a funding perspective, institutions are still positioning themselves

In terms of fundamentals, application implementations are increasing

On the news front, most negative sentiment has been digested

Many people are now looking to short the rebound, but that’s really just gambling with their lives. The true boundary between bulls and bears cannot be determined by just a few days of ups and downs.

📉 What you fear is the crash, but what smart people see is—a buying opportunity.

Don’t let emotions dictate your trading. By linking together technicals, policies, and funding perspectives, you can avoid being a “high-price buyer” too many times.

In today’s market, the timid only see the decline, while the bold are already preparing to harvest the panic.

Which side are you on? 💸🔥

#ETH #加密货币 #投资逻辑

Major events in the world are hidden in codes — the keys to the rise and fall of the cryptocurrency market are often concealed behind seemingly distant news.

Brothers, here comes the revised version of the key news from last night and this morning (Note: adjusted according to authoritative data sources)

Domestic Highlights

1. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization signed a ten-year strategy (signal for strengthening economic cooperation);

2. Moutai shareholders increased their holdings by 100 million (actually the Guizhou Moutai Group increased its holdings, not a vague statement of 'controlling shareholder')

3. The Shanghai Futures Exchange expands foreign trading varieties (opening up accelerates);

4. Manufacturing PMI confirmed at 50.5​ (official data matches, short-term economic recovery).

International Highlights

1. India is in a tariff policy game (Trump claims 'India plans to reduce tariffs', but zero tariffs have not been officially announced)

2. New Federal Reserve governor Milan has a high probability of taking office in September​ (affects interest rate hike expectations)

3. Geopolitical risks escalate (Houthi, Russia-Ukraine, EU GPS interference incidents)

4. Silver breaks through $40/ounce (correct, the first time since 2011)​

5. Syria exports 600,000 barrels of crude oil (heavy crude oil, the first time in 14 years)​.

Opinions and Cases

Macroeconomic events must be cross-verified! For example,

The recovery of PMI data may temporarily boost risk assets (like the rebound in A-shares yesterday followed by a slight increase in BTC);
But geopolitical conflicts + surging silver prices will divert safe-haven funds (case in point: during the tense situation in Iran in March this year, BTC and gold were once negatively correlated).

Want to learn how to accurately capture buy and sell signals from news? Tonight's live stream will teach you how to use 'macro data combined with on-chain data' to predict market trends, click to follow @区块链枫叶 so you don't miss out! #投资逻辑

【In the current market, Trump is the key variable!】
Stop getting entangled in the four-year cycle and interest rate cuts; the direction of the market now depends on Trump!

Isn't the lesson from the 2018 China-U.S. trade war deep enough? The crypto bear market, the sharp decline of U.S. stocks... the escalation of the trade war directly left the market bewildered.

Although there will eventually be a reconciliation, the process of tugging back and forth is enough to make the market oscillate repeatedly.

If it weren't for the shadow of the trade war, the market might have already taken off.

But in investment, there are no ifs; keeping a close eye on Trump's actions is the only way to understand the pulse of this market!#MarketAnalysis #Trump #ChinaUSTrade #投资逻辑 #加密市场回调 #鲍威尔发言 $BTC $ETH

The ripples of the geopolitical situation are still spreading, the game in the Strait of Hormuz, the tug of war over tariffs, the aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine conflict... news is stirring the nerves of the market. But rather than guessing the 'script', we should see the essence clearly: capital is fuel, and quality projects are the engine.

The madness of the last bull market is hard to replicate, and a reshuffling is underway—old brands may fade, while newcomers may rise to the top. When the footsteps of institutions resonate with easing signals, the real opportunities belong to those value targets that can withstand the test.

Patience is required, but one must also be keen in selection. #MarketObservation #QualityProjects #投资逻辑