奔跑财经-FinaceRun

9 European banks announce the formation of an alliance, planning to launch a compliant euro stablecoin in 2026

Recently, nine major banks in Europe announced the formation of an alliance and plan to launch a euro stablecoin that meets the EU's Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCAR) standards in the second half of 2026.

This move aims to create a trustworthy European digital payment standard and is committed to challenging the current market pattern of stablecoins dominated by the United States.

The banking alliance includes nine globally influential financial institutions, such as ING Group, KBC, Danske Bank, UniCredit, and CaixaBank.

It is noteworthy that ING, recognized by international regulatory bodies as a globally significant financial services banking group, actively engaging in this initiative indicates that traditional financial giants are embracing blockchain technology.

Currently, these banks have established a new company in the Netherlands and plan to apply for an electronic money institution license from the Dutch central bank while welcoming more European banks to join.

According to a joint statement, the launched #欧元稳定币 will utilize blockchain technology, aiming to become an important payment tool in the EU digital ecosystem and strictly adhere to the MiCAR regulatory framework.

Fiona Melrose, the strategic head of UniCredit Group, emphasized that this project demonstrates the determination of European financial institutions to collaborate and promote financial innovation. This initiative not only meets the market's compliance needs for blockchain payments but also promotes advancements in fintech and the popularization of digital assets.

At the same time, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) recently launched an initiative regarding the use of stablecoins as collateral in the derivatives market, showing that global regulatory bodies are accelerating the integration of stablecoins into the mainstream financial system.

The establishment of the European Banking Alliance marks a substantial step by traditional financial institutions into the field of digital assets, with the potential to reshape the competitive landscape of the global stablecoin market.

Currently, the project is in the preparation stage, and after obtaining regulatory approval, the alliance also plans to appoint a CEO.

If everything goes as planned, it will become the first compliant euro stablecoin issued by a large traditional banking alliance, providing important infrastructure support for the development of the European digital economy.

X platform has a new type of phishing attack: malicious applications authorized can bypass traditional password and 2FA security protection

Recently, a highly covert phishing attack targeting X platform users has raised alarms in the cryptocurrency community. Attackers have successfully bypassed traditional passwords and two-factor authentication (2FA) security protections by exploiting the platform's application authorization mechanism, resulting in the hijacking of accounts belonging to several well-known figures in the crypto field.

The core technique of this attack is highly deceptive. Hackers first send phishing messages disguised as Google Calendar shared links to the targets, luring users to click and authorize a malicious application named “Calendar.” The application name actually contains special disguise characters, making it difficult to detect in the authorization list.

More dangerously, the application requests comprehensive control permissions during authorization, including the ability to post tweets, access private messages, and other core functions.

Security experts point out that the threat of this new type of attack lies in its complete circumvention of conventional security measures. Even if users set strong passwords and 2FA, once they authorize the malicious application, attackers can directly manipulate the account through the application interface, without needing to crack any verification steps.

The known defensive measure is that users need to immediately check and clean up the list of authorized applications, removing any suspicious “Calendar” applications.

As the connection between the cryptocurrency industry and social platforms becomes increasingly close, such targeted attacks on industry professionals may continue to rise. This incident also exposes the security risks that indeed exist in third-party application authorization on social media platforms.

Finally, security experts strongly advise users to always remain highly vigilant against suspicious links and to establish a good habit of regularly reviewing account application authorizations to effectively avoid the risks of such phishing attacks.

#网络钓鱼 #2FA防护

The U.S. BTC and ETH spot ETFs experienced a dual net outflow yesterday, with a cumulative net outflow exceeding 500 million USD.

On September 26, according to SoSoValue data, the U.S. BTC spot ETF had a total net outflow of 258 million USD yesterday, marking the third day of net outflows this week.

Among them, Fidelity FBTC led the net outflow with nearly 115 million USD (1,050 BTC), and currently, FBTC has a cumulative net inflow of 12.22 billion USD;

Followed by Bitwise BITB with a single-day net outflow of 80.52 million USD (733.98 BTC), currently, BITB has a cumulative net inflow of 2.25 billion USD;

Next is ARK 21Shares ARKB with a single-day net outflow of 63.05 million USD (574.71 BTC), currently, ARKB has a cumulative net inflow of 2.12 billion USD;

Meanwhile, Grayscale's GBTC and BTC recorded net outflows of 42.90 million USD (391.05 BTC) and 15.49 million USD (141.23 BTC) respectively yesterday;

In addition, VanEck HODL, Franklin EZBC, and Valkyrie BRR recorded net inflows of 10.08 million USD (91.91 BTC), 6.35 million USD (57.87 BTC), and 4.96 million USD (45.20 BTC) respectively yesterday;

Notably, BlackRock IBIT was the only Bitcoin ETF with a net inflow yesterday, with a single-day net inflow of 79.70 million USD (726.49 BTC);

As of now, the total asset net value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is 144.35 billion USD, accounting for 6.64% of the total market value of Bitcoin, with a cumulative total net inflow of 57.23 billion USD.

On the same day, the Ethereum spot ETF had a net outflow of 251 million USD, marking four consecutive days of net outflows, and yesterday only one ETF did not experience a net outflow.

Among them, Fidelity FETH had a net outflow of 158 million USD (40,200 ETH), making it the ETH ETF with the highest net outflow yesterday, and currently, FETH has a cumulative net inflow of 2.59 billion USD;

Grayscale's ETHE and ETH, along with Bitwise ETHW, recorded net outflows of 30.27 million USD (7,700 ETH), 26.14 million USD (6,650 ETH), and 27.60 million USD (7,020 ETH) respectively yesterday;

In addition, there were four other Ethereum ETFs that experienced net outflows yesterday, each with a single-day outflow scale reaching millions of USD.

As of now, the total asset net value of Ethereum spot ETFs is 25.59 billion USD, accounting for 5.46% of the total market value of Ethereum, with a cumulative total net inflow of 13.37 billion USD.

#比特币ETF #以太坊ETF

The U.S. Senate is set to hold a hearing on cryptocurrency taxation, with Trump's tax reduction policies in focus.

The U.S. Senate Finance Committee will hold a hearing titled "Reviewing the Taxation of Digital Assets" on October 1, aimed at conducting a thorough examination of cryptocurrency taxes. The hearing will take place in Room 215 of the Dirksen Senate Office Building and will be livestreamed through the committee's website.

The hearing will feature testimony from industry and tax policy experts, including Coin Center Policy Director Jason Somensatto, founding member of AS Kramer Law Andrea S. Kramer, Coinbase Tax Vice President Lawrence Zlatkin, and Chair of the American Institute of CPAs Digital Assets Tax Working Group Annette Nellen.

Fox Business reporter Eleanor Terrett reported on the hearing, which will also discuss and closely examine the current digital asset tax rules.

Despite the diverse lineup of witnesses covering various fields such as advocacy, business, law, and professional standards, the committee has not yet released any legislative drafts.

Reports indicate that the hearing agenda will involve a wide-ranging inquiry to assess how to handle complex digital asset activities from the perspective of federal income tax, including staking, token issuance, protocol layer allocations, basis tracking, wash sale parity, and information reporting obligations.

Market participants are closely watching this political development. Trader "HORSE" commented on social media that the Trump administration may pursue a comprehensive tax cut policy to alleviate the tax burden on cryptocurrency activities, signaling significant positive changes ahead.

The significance of this hearing goes far beyond a typical policy discussion and could directly impact the competitiveness of the U.S. digital asset market. The outcomes of the meeting will send important signals to the market, particularly regarding the new government's overall attitude and policy direction towards the cryptocurrency industry.

In conclusion, although the committee has not yet published specific legislative drafts, this indicates that the hearing is more focused on preliminary research and policy direction discussions. The industry also hopes that this meeting can help establish a more reasonable and clearer digital asset tax framework, creating a more favorable market environment for industry development.

#美国加密货币税收 #参议院听证会

Bitcoin Faces a Crucial Test: On-Chain Data Reveals Structural Weakness in the Market

Although Bitcoin has currently retreated about 12% from its historical high, far below the typical pullback range of 28%-60% in previous cycles, on-chain data reveals concerns about structural weakness within the market.

A report released by Glassnode yesterday pointed out that this cycle has absorbed a net inflow of $678 billion (approximately 1.8 times the scale of the previous cycle), but key indicators show that market balance is becoming fragile.

The core contradiction in the current market is reflected in the imbalance of capital flows. Long-term holders have realized profits on 3.4 million Bitcoins, with their selling pressure even exceeding historical levels during the same period.

Meanwhile, the demand for the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF, which previously acted as a market stabilizer, has significantly weakened, with daily inflows around the FOMC meeting dropping sharply from 2,600 Bitcoins to nearly zero.

This change in the supply-demand relationship makes the key support level of $111,800 (the cost basis for short-term holders) particularly important.

Furthermore, the derivatives market has further amplified the volatility risk. The number of outstanding futures contracts has decreased significantly, indicating that the market is undergoing a deleveraging process. Especially concentrated liquidation pressure in the range of $114,000 to $112,000 has triggered a chain reaction of sell-offs.

The options market is also sending warning signals, with a noticeable increase in demand for put options, reflecting heightened concerns among investors about downside risk.

Currently, Bitcoin is hovering around $109,500, with the market at a critical decision point. There is an urgent need for new institutional capital inflows to balance the profit-taking pressure from long-term holders; otherwise, structural weakness may translate into a substantial downward trend.

Investors need to closely monitor two key signals: whether ETF fund flows can warm up and whether the leverage ratio in the derivatives market stabilizes. These indicators will help assess whether the market can regain upward momentum or will face more severe tests.

#比特币链上数据 #市场结构分析

The fewer words, the greater the event! #北约向俄罗斯宣战

Chainalysis Report: Japan's Cryptocurrency Market Leads Asia-Pacific with Year-on-Year Growth Surpassing India and South Korea

According to the latest report released by Chainalysis, the Asia-Pacific region is the fastest-growing area for on-chain value globally. Despite progress in digital asset adoption in countries like India and South Korea, Japan unexpectedly emerged as a leader by 2025, with its on-chain value increasing by 120% over the 12 months ending June 2025, marking a significant turning point for the Japanese market.

In recent years, Japan's cryptocurrency market has performed relatively flat compared to its Asian neighbors, but the recent positive shift in regulatory policies has become a key driving force. With the breakthrough of regulatory bottlenecks, global stablecoin issuers like Circle have begun to deeply engage in the Japanese market, providing compliant USDC trading services to local users, fundamentally changing the previous challenge of stablecoins not being able to officially list.

Data shows that within the Asia-Pacific region, Vietnam ranks fourth among the markets with the highest global cryptocurrency adoption rates, only behind India, the United States, and Pakistan. Additionally, the trading volume of the cryptocurrency market in the Asia-Pacific region surged to $2.36 trillion within a year, a 69% year-on-year increase, far exceeding last year's 27%. This trend indicates that the Asia-Pacific region has become the primary growth engine of the global cryptocurrency market.

Meanwhile, other Asia-Pacific markets are also showing differentiated development paths. India maintains strong growth due to grassroots adoption and institutional advantages, but high tax policies still restrict industry development; the South Korean market is rapidly expanding relying on stablecoins, with stablecoin trading volume in Korean won reaching $59 billion during the same period, but regulatory challenges are intensifying, and recent calls have been made by lawmakers to strengthen monitoring of suspicious transactions.

Overall, the Asia-Pacific market is presenting a diversified development pattern. Japan is breaking through with policies, India is leveraging grassroots adoption, and South Korea is expanding through stablecoins. This differentiated development path indicates that the maturity of the cryptocurrency market no longer relies on a single model but needs to combine local characteristics to build a sustainable development ecosystem.

In conclusion, as the dynamic balance between regulation and innovation becomes a global issue, Japan provides an important reference case for various countries. This illustrates that timely adjustments to regulatory scales can both activate market potential and guide the industry towards substantial value creation.

#Chainalysis报告 #亚太区块链发展

Bitcoin and M2 Money Supply Trends Diverge, Lagging Cycle Sets Record

Data analysis shows that since May of this year, the price of Bitcoin has severely diverged from the growth of the global M2 money supply, with the current lagging cycle reaching 70 days, setting a historical record.

This phenomenon indicates a significant break in the correlation between Bitcoin and traditional monetary policy. At the same time, Bitcoin is moving away from its traditional positioning as an "inflation hedge tool" and is instead exhibiting characteristics of high-risk tech stocks.

In stark contrast to Bitcoin, gold and the M2 money supply remain highly synchronized. Currently, the value ratio of gold to the global M2 money supply is close to 1:1.

Analyst Joe Consorti points out that gold is a high-value safe-haven asset, and when the global money supply increases, its performance rises in sync with the M2 money supply. While Bitcoin is high in value, it is viewed more as a risk asset.

Meanwhile, despite the global M2 expanding by more than 7% since the beginning of 2024 and the dollar index falling 12% this year, BTC has not benefited from the expected liquidity surge and has instead shown continuous sideways consolidation.

Market performance verifies this shift. Bitcoin is currently down 10% from its historical high, with a drop of 3.7% over the past week, recently retreating to around $112,000 after encountering resistance at $116,000.

Although gold advocate Peter Schiff emphasizes that Bitcoin's price against gold has dropped 20% since the August peak, data shows that Bitcoin is still up 78% over the past 12 months, significantly outperforming gold's 42% increase.

This break in correlation may stem from multiple factors. On one hand, the liquidity brought by the Federal Reserve's balance sheet expansion is flowing more into traditional financial markets;

On the other hand, structural changes in the cryptocurrency market (such as the increased share of institutional investors and the maturity of the derivatives market) are making its price determination mechanism increasingly complex.

Analyst opinions indicate that Bitcoin is currently maintaining near key support levels; if new momentum is lacking, selling pressure may exacerbate the downward trend that has been in place since September.

In summary, the decoupling phenomenon between Bitcoin and M2 money supply not only involves adjustments to asset pricing models but may also signify a fundamental change in the role of cryptocurrencies in market cycles. Investors need to reconsider the actual role of Bitcoin in their investment portfolios.

#BTC #M2

Brazil's new foreign exchange regulations impact the stablecoin market, which may change the regulatory landscape of the cryptocurrency market.

The Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) is pushing for significant reforms in the country's foreign exchange system. Although the new regulations primarily target electronic foreign exchange (eFX) platforms, they are expected to have a profound impact on the cryptocurrency industry.

According to Law No. 14,286/2021, in the future, only authorized institutions will be able to provide electronic foreign exchange services. This means that cryptocurrency exchanges handling international payments may need to apply for specific licenses and meet stricter compliance requirements.

The core provisions of the new regulations include requiring exchanges to disclose the total effective value (VET) of each transaction, with the aim of increasing transparency and protecting consumer rights;

This move has a significant impact on Brazil's stablecoin market, as stablecoins are commonly used in Brazil to combat inflation and facilitate international payments. However, the new regulations may subject them to stricter regulatory constraints.

At the same time, regulators are considering setting a limit on international cryptocurrency transfers at $10,000 per transaction, aiming to prevent money laundering and capital flight risks.

However, for investors relying on dollar-pegged stablecoins like USDT for large cross-border transfers, the newly established transfer limits will significantly reduce the convenience of such tools.

Although regulators believe that these measures are necessary, some critics worry that overly strict restrictions may drive some trading flows to informal channels.

Additionally, the new regulations also require exchanges and brokers to submit detailed customer and transaction information to the central bank and integrate with the Pix instant payment system, indicating that regulators are working to bring cryptocurrencies into traditional financial regulation.

Despite the potential for this direction to undermine the privacy advantages of cryptocurrencies, analysts believe that the reform by the Central Bank of Brazil aims to find a balance between innovation and regulation.

In summary, the new regulatory reform of Brazil's foreign exchange system is expected to become an important barometer for the Latin American market.

If these measures are implemented properly, they may provide a model that balances market development with risk control for the region;

But if the rules are too stringent, it may lead businesses to flow into markets with looser regulations. This move could also have a demonstration effect on other countries and influence regional regulatory trends and market development.

#巴西 #外汇新规 #稳定币

The US BTC and ETH spot ETFs showed a divergent trend of net inflow/outflow yesterday.

On September 25, according to SoSoValue data, the US BTC spot ETF had a total net inflow of 241 million USD yesterday, marking the first day of net inflow of funds this week; and among the 12 Bitcoin ETFs, none had a net outflow of funds yesterday.

Among them, BlackRock's IBIT ranked first in net inflow yesterday with nearly 129 million USD (1,140 BTC), currently having a cumulative net inflow of 60.78 billion USD;

Secondly, ARK 21Shares ARKB had a single-day net inflow of 37.72 million USD (332.20 BTC), currently accumulating a net inflow of 2.18 billion USD;

Fidelity's FBTC had a net inflow of 29.7 million USD (261.54 BTC) yesterday, with a current cumulative net inflow of 12.34 billion USD;

Bitwise BITB had a single-day net inflow of 24.69 million USD (217.48 BTC), currently having a cumulative net inflow of 2.33 billion USD;

Grayscale's BTC and VanEck HODL recorded net inflows of 13.56 million USD (119.44 BTC) and 6.42 million USD (56.56 BTC) respectively yesterday;

As of now, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is 149.74 billion USD, accounting for 6.62% of the total market value of Bitcoin, with a cumulative total net inflow of 57.49 billion USD.

On the same day, Ethereum spot ETFs had a net outflow of nearly 79.36 million USD, recording a continuous net outflow of funds for 3 days; among the 9 Ethereum ETFs, none had a net inflow of funds yesterday;

Among them, Fidelity's FETH had the highest single-day net outflow of 33.26 million USD (7,980 ETH) yesterday, currently having a cumulative net inflow of 2.74 billion USD;

Secondly, BlackRock's ETHA had a single-day net outflow of 26.47 million USD (6,350 ETH), currently having a cumulative net inflow of 13.66 billion USD;

Grayscale's ETHE, 21Shares TETH, and Bitwise ETHW recorded net outflows of 8.91 million USD (2,140 ETH), 6.24 million USD (1,500 ETH), and 4.48 million USD (1,070 ETH) respectively yesterday;

As of now, the total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs is 27.42 billion USD, accounting for 5.45% of the total market value of Ethereum, with a cumulative total net inflow of 13.62 billion USD.

#比特币ETF #以太坊ETF

Peter Schiff Speaks Again: Claims Bitcoin Has Entered a Bear Market, Market Opinions Are Mixed

Well-known gold supporter and Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff has once again spoken out, declaring that Bitcoin has officially entered a bear market.

He pointed out on social media platform X that since hitting an all-time high in August, the price of Bitcoin relative to gold has dropped by 20%, far exceeding the 10% correction in USD terms, in line with the technical definition of a bear market.

Schiff emphasized that as an asset widely referred to as "digital gold," Bitcoin's performance against gold is more valuable for reference.

Data shows that Bitcoin's price has fallen from a high of $124,500 on August 14 to around $112,000 on September 22, with a drop of over 10% in just over a month. Meanwhile, gold prices have continued to strengthen, rising more than 12% in the past month and constantly setting new historical records.

This view has been echoed by some analysts. Stockmoney Lizards pointed out that Bitcoin's chart currently shows a bearish rising wedge pattern, with $112,000 being a key support level in the near term. If it falls below the $110,000 level, it may trigger a deeper correction.

However, the cryptocurrency community has fiercely rebutted Schiff's assertion. Several industry insiders pointed out that defining a bear market by a 20% drop is not applicable in the already highly volatile cryptocurrency market. Some users sarcastically remarked that calling a 20% drop a “bear market” is like calling a drizzle a flood.

Many have emphasized long-term performance, stating that even though Bitcoin has only been around for 15 years, its performance has far outpaced gold. In terms of the ten-year dimension, the price of gold measured in Bitcoin has plummeted by 99.3%, from about 4.84 Bitcoins per ounce in 2015 to the current 0.033 Bitcoins.

It is worth noting that Schiff has made 237 predictions about Bitcoin crashes since 2011. Despite recent market adjustments, most analysts believe that a longer time frame should be considered when assessing trends, as short-term volatility does not necessarily indicate a switch between bull and bear markets.

Do you think that a 20% drop in Bitcoin against gold is sufficient to determine that Bitcoin has entered a bear market? In the long run, do you favor Bitcoin or gold as a means of value storage?

#彼得希夫 #比特币熊市

Trump Administration Officials Under Ethics Investigation: Involving UAE Chip Exports and Cryptocurrency Company Investments

Recently, U.S. Democratic Senators Elizabeth Warren and Elissa Slotkin formally requested the federal oversight agency to conduct an ethics investigation into Trump administration officials, focusing on two transactions involving chip exports and cryptocurrency company investments related to the UAE.

According to documents obtained by The New York Times, these two transactions include agreements for artificial intelligence chip exports and investments from the UAE's sovereign fund into cryptocurrency companies associated with the Trump family, totaling billions of dollars.

The investigation centers on potential conflicts of interest involving the president's Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff. While Witkoff was advocating for the export of advanced AI chips to the UAE, his family's cryptocurrency company, World Liberty Financial, which he co-founded with the Trump family, received a $2 billion investment from the UAE sovereign fund MGX.

Disclosure documents show that the Witkoff family holds 3.75 billion WLFI tokens, valued at approximately $800 million at current market prices.

It is noteworthy that federal law explicitly prohibits officials from participating in decision-making related to matters that could financially benefit them. The senators pointed out in their letter that Witkoff's simultaneous involvement in chip export approvals and cryptocurrency company financing clearly violates this regulation.

Even more concerning is that the number of AI chips exported has significantly increased from the originally planned 100,000 per year to 500,000. Additionally, the technological cooperation relationship between the UAE and China has raised national security concerns.

This investigation is part of a series of reviews by Democrats regarding Trump-associated cryptocurrency projects. Previously, Warren and others had pushed for cryptocurrency regulatory legislation aimed at limiting the promotion of cryptocurrencies by sitting officials.

As these types of ethical reviews may escalate further, the cryptocurrency market could face more uncertainty and volatility, potentially affecting the regulatory environment, legitimacy, and investor confidence in cryptocurrencies.

Currently, the Office of Inspector General needs to respond to the investigation request within 180 days. If any violations are confirmed, it could trigger administrative penalties or even legislative amendments.

This incident not only tests the effectiveness of the ethical oversight system for U.S. officials but will also have far-reaching implications for the intersection of politics and the cryptocurrency industry.

#特朗普政府 #加密货币监管

Morgan Stanley partners with Zerohash to enter the cryptocurrency market, plans to launch digital asset trading in 2026

Wall Street giant Morgan Stanley announced that it will launch cryptocurrency trading services through its E-Trade platform in the first half of 2026, with initial support for mainstream assets such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana.

This service will be realized through collaboration with the U.S. digital asset infrastructure company Zerohash, marking the official entry of large financial institutions on Wall Street into the cryptocurrency trading field.

This decision stems from intense competitive pressure in the industry. Currently, Robinhood has offered multi-currency trading services, while Charles Schwab has entered the market through cryptocurrency ETFs.

At the same time, facing a digital asset market with a total scale of $3.98 trillion (with Bitcoin accounting for $2.25 trillion and Ethereum for $503.9 billion), the acceleration of traditional financial institutions' layout has become an inevitable trend.

Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley's partner Zerohash recently completed a $104 million Series D funding round, and its valuation has entered the unicorn ranks, led by Interactive Brokers, with other investors including IBKR, Morgan Stanley, and SoFi.

At the same time, Citigroup is planning stablecoin custody services, and Bank of America is secretly developing its own stablecoin, even Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, who has been critical of BTC, has begun to pay attention to the stablecoin field.

In terms of market performance, Bitcoin fell back to around $112,000 after breaking through $124,000, and currently maintains a daily range of $110,000-$115,000. Mainstream altcoins generally declined, indicating that the market is overall in a consolidation phase.

In summary, industry analysis indicates that the friendly regulatory environment created by the Trump administration has become a key catalyst for traditional financial institutions to enter the cryptocurrency market.

At the same time, with Wall Street giants like Morgan Stanley sequentially laying out their strategies, the institutionalization process of the market will enter an accelerated phase.

Although short-term price fluctuations are still influenced by policy expectations and market sentiment, the deep integration of traditional finance and the crypto ecosystem is irreversible, which will bring a more stable funding base and a more mature market structure to the industry.

#摩根士丹利 #加密货币

Powell's speech releases complex signals, and the cryptocurrency market faces uncertainty

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's latest speech releases complex signals. Against the backdrop of slowing economic growth and stubborn inflation, his cautious remarks on the monetary policy path bring uncertainty to the cryptocurrency market.

In a speech early in the morning at the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce, Powell pointed out that the GDP growth rate in the first half of the year has fallen to 1.5%, the unemployment rate remains low at 4.3%, while the core PCE inflation rate has risen to 2.9%, far exceeding the 2% policy target.

Faced with this "short-term inflation risk upward, employment risk downward" complex situation, Powell emphasized that monetary policy "has no preset route" and will adjust dynamically based on data.

Although the current policy stance is still "moderately restrictive", there is also room for interest rate cuts. At the same time, he warned that a too rapid pace of rate cuts could pause or reverse the easing cycle and adversely affect cryptocurrencies.

Powell's remarks contrast sharply with the CME futures market prediction showing a 94.1% probability of a rate cut in October, reflecting the divergence in policy paths.

For the cryptocurrency market, Powell's cautious stance brings a dual impact: on the one hand, rate cuts are usually beneficial for risk assets such as cryptocurrencies because low interest rates reduce the cost of holding these assets.

On the other hand, investors' concerns about rising inflation and the unclear policy direction may reduce market optimism.

Some analysts have pointed out that the market may be overly concerned about Powell's speech. Because the Federal Reserve's responsibility lies in macroeconomic regulation, rather than guiding asset prices, this statement should not be seen as a direct negative signal for the market.

However, considering that tariffs may push inflation higher, there is still uncertainty about whether monetary policy will continue to be eased. This may lead the cryptocurrency market to continue fluctuating within a range in the short term until economic data or policy signals provide a clearer direction.

#鲍威尔 #加密货币市场

Bitcoin and gold have shown significant divergence in trends, and the narrative of 'digital gold' faces real-world tests.

Recently, gold and Bitcoin have exhibited a notable divergence in trends, prompting the market to re-evaluate the narrative of 'digital gold'.

On September 23rd, the price of gold broke through $3,790 per ounce, reaching a historic high, while BTC significantly retraced the day before, triggering around $1.8 billion in contract liquidations. This contrast highlights the different performances of the two asset classes under macro pressures.

This phenomenon indicates that, against the backdrop of a strong dollar, high U.S. Treasury yields, and escalating geopolitical risks, gold's safe-haven attributes are fully manifested.

Analysts point out that the 43.69% increase in gold prices this year is due to continuous accumulation by central banks and its solid position as a geopolitical hedging tool, whereas this time-tested safe-haven consensus is not yet fully established for BTC.

In contrast, in the cryptocurrency market, as BTC's price dropped from $116,000 to below $112,000 on Monday, over 400,000 contract traders faced liquidations, with long positions accounting for as much as 91.7%. This phenomenon also reveals the inherent fragility of the cryptocurrency market in a high-leverage environment.

Despite the Federal Reserve implementing a 25 basis point rate cut the previous week, the unexpected strengthening of the dollar and inflation concerns have continued to pressure cryptocurrencies, raising doubts about their role as a hedging tool in the current macro environment.

From a market positioning perspective, Bitcoin's return rate this year is 20.53%, significantly lower than gold's 43.76% increase, highlighting that the two asset classes are at different stages of development.

Analysts believe that gold plays a safe-haven role based on cross-cycle consensus, while Bitcoin remains susceptible to short-term factors such as liquidity, leverage, and regulation, thus its status as a store of value still requires time for validation.

In summary, the recent severe fluctuations in Bitcoin's price have also prompted investors to re-examine the core differences in its actual positioning relative to gold.

Therefore, the market viewpoint suggests that for Bitcoin to truly achieve its 'digital gold' positioning, it must prove that under extreme market conditions, it possesses safe-haven attributes and stability equivalent to traditional safe-haven assets (such as gold), and this validation process still needs to undergo the tests of multiple economic cycles.

#比特币 #黄金 #数字黄金

The US BTC and ETH spot ETFs have seen a total net outflow for 2 consecutive days, with no ETH ETF experiencing net inflow yesterday.

On September 24, according to SoSoValue data, the US BTC spot ETF saw a total net outflow of approximately 104 million USD yesterday, marking a continuous 2-day net outflow of funds.

Among them, Fidelity FBTC ranked first in net outflow yesterday with 75.56 million USD (675.92 BTC), currently FBTC has a cumulative net inflow of 12.31 billion USD;

Next, ARK 21Shares ARKB had a net outflow of 27.85 million USD (249.15 BTC) in a single day, and ARKB currently has a cumulative net inflow of 2.15 billion USD;

Following closely is Bitwise BITB with a single-day net outflow of 12.76 million USD (114.18 BTC), and BITB currently has a cumulative net inflow of 416 million USD;

Meanwhile, Invesco BTCO and BlackRock IBIT saw respective net inflows of 10.02 million USD (89.66 BTC) and 2.54 million USD (22.70 BTC) yesterday;

As of now, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is 147.17 billion USD, accounting for 6.6% of the total Bitcoin market cap, with a cumulative total net inflow of 57.25 billion USD.

On the same day, the Ethereum spot ETF saw a net outflow of nearly 141 million USD, also recording a continuous 2-day net outflow of funds, and there was not a single Ethereum ETF with net inflow yesterday.

Among them, Fidelity FETH had the largest net outflow yesterday with 63.4 million USD (15,220 ETH), and currently, FETH has a cumulative net inflow of 2.78 billion USD;

Next, Grayscale's ETH and ETHE recorded net outflows of 36.37 million USD (8,730 ETH) and 17.1 million USD (4,100 ETH) respectively yesterday;

And Bitwise ETHW had a net outflow of 23.88 million USD (5,730 ETH) yesterday, with ETHW currently having a cumulative net inflow of 392 million USD;

As of now, the total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs is 27.48 billion USD, accounting for 5.45% of the total Ethereum market cap, with a cumulative total net inflow of 13.7 billion USD.

#比特币ETF #以太坊ETF

Tether and Circle Stablecoin Issuance Surges, Potentially Injecting New Liquidity into the Crypto Market

Recently, the two leading stablecoin issuers, Tether and Circle, have continued to issue tens of billions of dollars in stablecoins, drawing close attention from the market regarding liquidity injection.

According to on-chain monitoring platform Lookonchain's data on Monday, Tether added 1 billion USDT to its supply, while Circle also issued an additional 500 million USDC on the same day. This concentrated issuance is typically seen as a key signal for market funds preparing to enter.

According to Coingecko data, the current global market capitalization of dollar-pegged stablecoins is approximately $291.4 billion, with USDT and USDC accounting for nearly 85% of the total market cap. Changes in their supply directly influence the flow of funds within the entire crypto market.

Analysts believe that the large-scale issuance of USDT and USDC is expected to further enhance their critical liquidity role within the crypto ecosystem.

Based on historical data trends, the rapid issuance of stablecoins often indicates increased volatility and higher trading activity, commonly synchronizing with important price turning points for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins.

From a market structure perspective, stablecoins have become an important bridge connecting traditional finance and the crypto market, with supply expansion reflecting the rising demand from investors for safe-haven and instant trading tools.

Additionally, TradingView charts show that the market capitalization share of stablecoins has risen to 8.07%, while stablecoins have surpassed the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, indicating an increased demand for safe havens amid market volatility. Funds are shifting towards stablecoin assets, reflecting that investors are waiting for a clearer market direction.

However, analysts point out that this type of capital accumulation often serves to build momentum for subsequent market movements. Once market sentiment shifts, existing liquidity may quickly flow into risk assets.

In summary, market observers believe that the next few trading days will test the true direction of the capital from this issuance. If the stablecoin share further rises to 8.2%-8.4%, it may indicate short-term pressure on risk assets;

Conversely, if the share remains stable, it may establish a foundation for capital return. This liquidity trend will become a key indicator for assessing whether the market can quickly recover and adjust.

#Tether #Circle #稳定币

Despite the significant drop in the cryptocurrency market on Monday, analysts remain bullish for October

This Monday, the cryptocurrency market experienced a substantial correction, but multiple analysts still believe that the current decline is a healthy adjustment and predict that October will usher in a new round of upward trends.

Although Bitcoin fell from $116,000 to around $112,000 during the leverage liquidation wave on Monday, with a single-day decline of about 3.5%, the market sentiment has not turned pessimistic.

Analyst "Colin Talks Crypto" pointed out that Bitcoin's chart displays multiple nested technical patterns (such as head and shoulders combined with inverted head and shoulders), which typically indicate significant breakthroughs. He emphasized that the current market's worry contrasts with the euphoria at the peak of a bull market, which is instead a positive signal, maintaining a year-end target expectation of $140,000. Furthermore, historical data supports this optimistic assessment, as October has often been the strongest month for cryptocurrency performance over the past decade, with an average return rate of 21.89%.

Although recent volatility risks have increased, the overall performance in September remains positive. Bitcoin has risen by 3.5% this month, stabilizing its total market capitalization at $3.96 trillion after experiencing a $150 billion liquidation.

Ethereum has seen a larger drop, falling 4% to below $4,200, while altcoins have also generally experienced double-digit corrections due to high leverage. However, analysts believe that if an average increase of 10% is achieved in October, altcoins may see explosive trends.

Market observers remind investors to pay attention to changes in leverage and whether spot demand can recover. Meanwhile, although the liquidation scale this week is large, it has not disrupted the fundamental trend structure; if institutional funds continue to flow into ETFs, the correction may present an opportunity for positioning.

In summary, based on the current technical patterns and historical seasonal trends, the market is gradually accumulating breakout momentum. If key support levels are stabilized, October is expected to become a turning point for the launch of a new round of trends, laying the foundation for market performance in the fourth quarter.

#比特币 #十月看涨