奔跑财经-FinaceRun

Bitcoin Volatility Drops to a Six-Month Low as the Market Awaits a Directional Breakout

According to market news, Bitcoin is experiencing its calmest period since January this year. Currently, the BTC price is trading in a tight range of $62,000 to $65,000, with a notably reduced daily fluctuation.

Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bandwidth indicator, which measures price volatility, has fallen to the lowest level since the beginning of the year. Trading volume has also shrunk. This month’s average daily volume has even dropped to $2.2 billion, which may set a new low since November 2023.

If we follow historical patterns, after long periods of sideways calm, the market often sees sharp volatility. Looking back at January this year, BTC traded in a narrow range of $86,000 to $900,000. Then, within the following weeks, it first surged to nearly $98,000, before falling back to around $60,000 in early February.

Since 2018, Bitcoin’s price action has typically shown cyclical patterns. That is, after prolonged periods of sluggish, range-bound trading, the market often witnesses a dramatic one-way move. It’s like a tightly compressed spring—the longer it’s squeezed, the stronger the energy release.

In summary, analysts believe that the current Bollinger Bands have tightened to the smallest level in nearly seven months. A low-volatility environment not only severely compresses the space for momentum trading, but also makes it difficult for range traders to achieve significant returns during this period.

Although the direction and timing of a breakout remain uncertain, based on historical规律, the longer the market’s quiet period lasts, the stronger the eventual directional breakout tends to be. The market is currently watching closely to see when this “calm before the storm” will be broken.

#布林带 #市场趋势

US spot BTC and ETH ETF saw total net inflows of $246 million on Thursday. Among all-category ETFs, none reported a net outflow for the spot holdings.

On July 31, according to SoSovalue data, US spot BTC ETFs recorded net inflows totaling $233 million yesterday, marking two consecutive days of total net inflows;

Among them, BlackRock’s IBIT, Bitwise’s BITB, and Fidelity’s FBTC ranked top three in net inflows, with $183 million (about 2,830 BTC), $20.74 million (320.22 BTC), and $15.50 million (239.30 BTC), respectively;

Next were Morgan Stanley’s MSBT, Grayscale’s BTC, VanEck’s HODL, and Ark & 21Shares’ ARKB, which recorded single-day net inflows of $7.42 million (114.63 BTC), $2.29 million (35.36 BTC), $2.29 million (35.35 BTC), and $1.50 million (23.21 BTC), respectively;

As of now, total net asset value of spot Bitcoin ETFs stands at $78.76 billion, accounting for 6.06% of Bitcoin’s total market capitalization, with cumulative total net inflows of $51.59 billion.

On the same day, however, US spot Ethereum ETFs recorded $13.29 million in inflows, marking the third consecutive day of net inflows this week;

Among them, BlackRock’s ETHA led the net inflows ranking yesterday with $16.24 million (about 8,450 ETH), and ETHA’s cumulative net inflows are currently $11.45 billion;

Next were Bitwise’s ETHW, Morgan Stanley’s MSSE, and 21Shares’ TETH, recording single-day net inflows of $1.37 million (715.19 ETH), $410,000 (215.10 ETH), and $380,000 (199.48 ETH), respectively;

Fidelity’s FETH, Grayscale’s ETHE, and VanEck’s ETHV recorded single-day net inflows of $2.87 million (1,490 ETH), $1.55 million (806.85 ETH), and $700,000 (365.36 ETH), respectively;

As of now, the total net asset value of spot Ethereum ETFs is $10.52 billion, accounting for 4.54% of Ethereum’s total market capitalization, with cumulative total net inflows of $11.20 billion.

In other all-category ETFs, only the XRP and SOL ETFs recorded total net inflows of $5.98 million and $0.40 million, respectively, on a daily basis;

#比特币ETF #以太坊ETF

Telegram founder Durov responds to Russian allegations, saying he was listed as a “terrorist” because he refused large-scale surveillance demands

According to market reports, in the face of Russia adding him to the lists of terrorists and extremists and launching an international manhunt, Telegram founder Pavel Durov made an official public response yesterday.

Durov said the reason the Russian authorities brought accusations against him is that Telegram refused to comply with the Russian government’s demands for large-scale monitoring and content review.

Durov also revealed that under relevant Russian laws, he has now been banned from publishing information on the internet. In this regard, he said that the Russian authorities clearly have not sorted out the boundaries of their jurisdiction, and cannot unilaterally restrict his personal right to speak out online.

Earlier, Russia’s Federal Security Service filed criminal proceedings against Durov on suspicion of assisting terrorist activities. The Russian side accused Telegram of failing to remove communities and bots within the platform that, according to Ukrainian intelligence agencies, were used to plan attacks and sabotage operations.

This incident also further highlights a long-standing disagreement over data control between the Russian federal government and Telegram.

At present, Telegram’s headquarters is in Dubai, and Durov currently holds citizenships in multiple countries including the UAE, making it highly unlikely that he will be extradited back to Russia.

#Telegram #数据隐私争议

Chainalysis: During the World Cup, predicted market trading volume is expected to reach $20 billion, and the number of users participating in illicit wallets is less than 1%

According to Cointelegraph, the 2026 FIFA World Cup is expected to drive blockchain prediction market trading volume to $20 billion. Digital collectible trading volume is $24 million, and more than 400,000 wallets participated in on-chain betting.

A Chainalysis report shows that of the $20 billion in trading volume, it includes transactions before and after the event. During the World Cup, within five weeks, betting accounted for about $5.7 billion, and World Cup-related markets made up about 63% of all prediction market activity in the same period.

In terms of user participation, users participated in World Cup prediction markets across all continents except Antarctica. The United States and China recorded the highest trading volumes, followed by Canada, Thailand, and the United Kingdom.

Despite the large overall betting activity, the level of illicit participation remains relatively limited. According to Chainalysis statistics, the proportion of wallets involved in World Cup prediction markets that are associated with illicit actors is less than 1%.

However, the firm also identified about $5.4 million in fund inflows originating from sanctioned entities and other illicit channels. Although this figure is not a large share, it still indicates that illicit finance has not been completely eradicated.

The report also notes that digital collectibles were widely used during the event. Fans traded FIFA NFT collectibles worth about $24 million through FIFA Collect, and more than 100,000 match tickets were distributed via the platform.

Notably, among users of FIFA Collect, the share of wallets associated with sanctioned entities is less than 0.01%. Chainalysis said this outcome is partly due to the platform’s identity verification measures.

Overall, these research findings suggest that blockchain is playing an increasingly important role in major global events. As platforms continue to attract broader user participation, the importance of compliance measures is becoming more prominent.

#预测市场 #体育赛事投注

Analyst: Bitcoin’s New Bull Cycle Might Start After the 2026 U.S. Midterm Elections

Recently, Joao Wedson, founder of Alphractal, posted on X, saying that Bitcoin’s price history shows a periodic correlation with the U.S. political timeline. He believes the next bull market will most likely begin after this year’s November U.S. midterm elections take place.

By revisiting price movements over the years, it appears that Bitcoin’s true bear markets tend to start one year before an election, while the bottom often forms around the time of the election. At that point, once the election results become clear and policy uncertainties fade, it is often the starting point for the next sustained uptrend.

In contrast, presidential elections tend to follow a different pattern. Whenever election results are released, crypto assets often surge quickly in the short term, but the market typically reaches a phase high shortly before or soon after the newly elected president is formally inaugurated.

Wedson also cited XRP as a representative example. He said that on the day Trump won the 2024 presidential election, XRP kicked off a round of a sharp rally, and it reached a phase peak on Inauguration Day in January the following year.

Currently, with the U.S. midterm election on November 3 drawing closer, if historical rules and patterns are used for projection, the window for Bitcoin to form a bottom may already be near.

However, analysts also caution that the election cycle is only a historical statistical pattern. Variables such as subsequent monetary policy and global regulatory trends can still change the market’s pace, so price direction cannot be determined by the political cycle alone.

#美国中期选举 #BTC宏观趋势

Has BTC not reached its true bottom yet? The current year’s realized loss is far below the historical bear-market lows

On July 30, CryptoQuant analyst Julio Moreno, by observing on-chain data, noted that the market has not yet shown signs of true panic-driven capitulation.

On-chain data shows that Bitcoin holders have only just begun to form a net realized loss for the year; the current full-year net realized loss is about 136,000 BTC;

However, when compared with historical cycles, at prior bear-market bottoms, the annual realized loss typically reaches between 1.3 million and 3.7 million BTC—there is still a large gap between the current figure and those levels.

In summary, the analyst presents two possible outcomes: either the current conditions mark the mildest cycle of realized losses, or they indicate that the market still has significant downside room.

In response to questions in the comments about whether a large-scale capitulation-style selloff might occur, Julio Moreno said, "There is still room for realized losses to expand further."

What do you think? Do you believe the current Bitcoin market has already bottomed out, or that there is still further downside ahead? Leave your views and judgment in the comments.

#比特币 #链上数据

Binance.US plans to apply for a CFTC license to enter prediction markets, aiming to seek a business turnaround through a designated contract market (DCM)

On July 30, according to a post by Eleanor Terret, Binance.US is preparing to apply to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for a designated contract market (DCM) license, with plans to submit the relevant application in August.

The report said the license application would allow Binance.US to offer futures, options, and event-based contracts to retail customers under federal oversight, including prediction market services.

Binance.US CEO Stephen Gregory confirmed the plan, saying it is a further move by the exchange following its earlier announcement to expand its derivatives and perpetual futures strategy.

If approved, Binance.US will launch futures, options, and various event contracts under CFTC regulation, expanding its business scope beyond spot crypto trading.

Meanwhile, competition in the U.S. compliant prediction market space is heating up. Kalshi, Polymarket US, and Gemini already hold the relevant CFTC licenses, and Coinbase has also entered the arena through partnerships.

In addition, Robinhood’s earnings report showed that its Q2 event contract revenue reached $156 million, up tenfold year over year—becoming the fastest-growing source of trading revenue, which indirectly reflects the sector’s rising heat.

Analysts say that even if Binance.US obtains a federal license, the platform still cannot completely eliminate disagreements at the state level.

Previously, governments in multiple states determined that sports event contracts fall under the category of gambling and said they should be regulated by state authorities.

Currently, the CFTC is moving forward with revisions to Rule 40.11, planning to establish clear review standards for contracts tied to events such as sports, war, and illegal-related matters.

However, 44 state attorneys general have jointly called for the proposal to be withdrawn and redrafted, arguing that it exceeds the authority granted under the Commodity Exchange Act.

Moreover, there are also differing views on how tightly sports leagues should regulate prediction markets. Against the backdrop of this series of overlapping contradictions, the industry’s ability to operate in compliance remains highly uncertain in the short term.

#Binance.US

BTC spot ETF saw total net inflows of $32.11 million on Wednesday, while ETH ETF recorded a total net outflow of $18.65 million in one day

On July 30, according to SoSovalue data, the U.S. BTC spot ETF recorded $32.11 million yesterday, marking the first day of total net inflows since this week;

Among them, BlackRock’s IBIT led the net inflow rankings yesterday with $89.83 million (about 1,400 BTC), and it was the only BTC ETF that saw net inflows yesterday;

Meanwhile, Fidelity’s FBTC and Ark&21Shares’ ARKB recorded daily net outflows of $43.08 million (673.59 BTC) and $14.64 million (228.81 BTC), respectively;

As of now, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is $77.46 billion, accounting for 6.08% of Bitcoin’s total market cap, with cumulative total net inflows of $51.36 billion.

On the same day, U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs recorded total net outflows of $18.65 million, also registering their first day of total net outflows since this week;

Among them, Fidelity’s FETH and Grayscale’s ETHE and ETH, recorded daily net outflows of $16.07 million (8,460 ETH) and $9.74 million (5,130 ETH) and $8.09 million (4,260 ETH), respectively;

Next were 21Shares TETH and Bitwise ETHW, recording daily net outflows of $2.85 million (1,500 ETH) and $1.36 million (715.20 ETH), respectively;

Morgan Stanley’s MSSE and BlackRock’s ETHA, however, recorded daily net inflows of $14.30 million (7,520 ETH) and $5.16 million (2,720 ETH), respectively, yesterday;

As of now, the total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs is $10.37 billion, accounting for 4.56% of Ethereum’s total market cap, with cumulative total net inflows of $11.19 billion.

Among other ETFs across all categories, except for the LINK ETF which recorded total daily net outflows of $8.78 million, the SOL, XRP, and HBAR ETFs recorded total daily net inflows of $19.06 million, $0.58 million, and $0.46 million, respectively.

#比特币ETF #以太坊ETF

Castle Labs Report: $7.42 Billion in Revenue Can’t Sustain Token Prices; DeFi Crypto Protocols Face a Deeper Value-Capture Dilemma

On July 30, Castle Labs released a report showing that since 2026, total protocol revenues in the crypto industry have reached $7.42 billion, yet the token prices of most projects have clearly decoupled from their revenues.

The report models six major leading protocols, including Aave, Hyperliquid, Pump Fun, and Uniswap. It states that these protocols’ total revenue in the first half amounted to $726 million, but after accounting for token issuance (dilution), large unlocks, and ecosystem incentives, the net value actually flowing to token holders for some projects turns negative.

Specific cases show that even though Hyperliquid has already burned 47 million HYPE tokens and Pump Fun spent $315 million to buy back tokens, the token price is still about 60% lower than the issue price—proving that a single buyback-and-burn cannot offset sell pressure.

The report points out that the root cause lies in structural defects in the industry’s value-capture mechanisms. Data show that only 38% of protocols have mechanisms that return收益 to token holders, while the remaining 62% are purely governance tokens, meaning users cannot share in protocol revenues.

At present, the crypto market is shifting from narrative-driven hype to cash-flow-based valuation logic, and institutional capital increasingly prioritizes a project’s real profitability. Investors should not only look at the size of a project’s revenue; they should also focus on the value-reflux design, token unlock schedule, and the structure of rights and allocations.

In the long run, only projects with controlled inflation, clear value distribution, and efficient governance can create a positive linkage between revenues and token prices. Projects lacking the ability to capture value will be gradually cleared out by the market.

#加密协议 #DeFi基本面

As Republicans criticize the Democratic Party’s delay of the key process for the “CLARITY Act,” a hacked X account of Republican Senator X has been used to promote a fake, copycat token

On July 30, the X account of Wyoming Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis was hacked, briefly posting a promotion for a fake Solana meme coin called “$USA Token,” along with a pump.fun link. The post was deleted within about five minutes.

As the Senate’s most steadfast supporter of the “CLARITY Act,” Lummis has been actively pushing the bill’s legislative process forward. The account-hack incident comes at a critical time in her legislative efforts, adding an unexpected variable to the bill’s momentum.

The same day, Lummis, speaking on the Senate floor, criticized the Democratic Party’s delay in advancing the “CLARITY Act.” She said the bill is beneficial for both the nation and consumers, adding that after 11 months of effort, she still does not understand what her colleagues need in order to act.

Last year, the bill received strong bipartisan support in the House, but most of 2026 it stalled due to the banking industry’s concerns about stablecoin yield and Democrats’ dissatisfaction with the morality clauses.

Meanwhile, the updated text of the “CLARITY Act” released last week incorporates morality clauses, aimed at banning government officials and their family members from issuing or promoting crypto assets.

At present, Lummis is actively pushing for passage of the bill in the Senate ahead of the August recess. The timing of the account being hacked overlaps with her legislative efforts, adding an unexpected twist to the bill’s final sprint.

Markets are closely watching whether the security incident involving her X account will affect her push, and whether Democrats’ stance on the morality clauses could soften in light of the adjustments in the latest text.

Overall, the countdown to Senate recess has begun. While the brief intrusion into Lummis’s account has been resolved, it serves as a reminder that even the core force pushing a bill can become a target of information warfare.

It’s unclear whether this was merely a simple cyberattack or interference aimed at the legislative process—details remain unknown. But what is certain is that the Clarity Act has reached a crossroads, and Lummis is both putting out fires and pressing forward.

#CLARITY法案 #X账户被黑

Michael Saylor Warns: Bitcoin’s Biggest Risk Is Not External Attacks, but Human Tampering With the Underlying Consensus Rules

On Wednesday, Strategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor posted on X to warn that the biggest threat facing Bitcoin is not outside attackers, but factions seeking to rewrite network rules for their own interests.

Saylor compares Bitcoin’s consensus rules to a "constitution," saying these rules define property rights, scarcity, settlement, and the balance of network power. Changing these rules for the benefit of a particular group is tantamount to attacking everyone who holds Bitcoin.

He specifically criticized this year’s highly controversial BIP-110 soft fork proposal, saying it would weaken the scarcity of block space, increase bandwidth and verification costs, and introduce a new attack surface to the consensus layer.

Saylor also emphasized that such changes run counter to the underlying core principles and that damaging the fee market would weaken miners’ ability to protect the network—effectively disabling Bitcoin’s defense mechanisms.

Overall, Saylor argues for preserving Bitcoin’s underlying attributes of simplicity, neutrality, scarcity, and security, and that protocol upgrades should be limited to clear, necessary cases rather than altering the base-layer consensus.

He believes Bitcoin has the potential to achieve 100x growth and become the foundation of global capital. But if any "corrupt" rules are introduced, they could undermine its long-term growth potential and constrain future market development, technological progress, and economic development freedom.

#MichaelSaylor #BTC共识

The Federal Reserve holds rates steady in July; Kevin Warsh’s remarks may amount to a “hawkish pause”

On July 29, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9 to 3 to keep the federal funds rate unchanged in the 3.5% to 3.75% range.

This is the first time since 2016 that, within the same policy decision, the Federal Reserve has seen three dissenting votes in agreement on the same stance, reflecting that calls for tighter policy within the Federal Reserve are growing louder.

The minutes show that although the conflict in the Middle East has created substantial uncertainty, the U.S. economy has still maintained steady growth, and inflation remains above the 2% policy target, partly due to supply shocks in areas such as energy.

The committee also reiterated that the Federal Reserve will continue to work toward its price stability goal and maintain a policy setting of ample reserves within the banking system.

Notably, in this rate decision, three regional Federal Reserve bank presidents argued for a 25-basis-point rate hike and cast dissenting votes, highlighting that within the committee there is still a considerable force concerned about inflation.

Meanwhile, Marc Giannoni of Barclays described the rate decision as a “hawkish hold,” noting that the Federal Reserve’s policy decision was made in the face of significant hawkish resistance.

After the July FOMC meeting, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated at a press conference that the Fed’s only objective is to maintain 2% inflation, and he denied any intention to pursue a softer-than-expected inflation outcome.

He said that if inflation remains stubbornly high, interest rates could be part of the solution, and he emphasized that today’s decision should not be characterized as a pause.

Warsh also noted that investment in U.S. markets is currently strong, economic output remains solid, AI investment lays the groundwork for future growth, and the labor market is stable.

In terms of market reaction, according to CME’s “Fed Watch,” the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged through September is 42.3%, while the probability of cumulative 25-basis-point hikes is 57.7%.

Overall, the data indicate that although the Federal Reserve kept market interest rates unchanged in July, expectations for a rate hike in September remain high.

#美联储利率决议

Russia accuses Telegram founder Pavel Durov of assisting terrorist activities and issues an international arrest warrant

On July 29, according to a report by Interfax news agency, the Russian Federal Security Service has brought criminal charges against Telegram founder Pavel Durov, accusing him of assisting terrorist activities, and has placed him on the international wanted list.

Durov, 41, holds four citizenships: Russia, Saint Kitts and Nevis, the UAE, and France. He founded Telegram in the UAE in 2013, and the platform now has more than one billion users.

As the main executive of Telegram, Pavel Durov has been charged for allegedly violating Article 205.1, Paragraph 1.1 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation (assistance to terrorist activities), and is therefore listed as internationally wanted.

Specifically, the Russian side alleges that the management of Telegram failed to delete channels, chat groups, bots, and other tools used by Ukrainian intelligence services to plan activities in Russia, including sabotage, terrorist attacks, mass murder, and cyber scams.

The Russian Federal Security Service said these illegal online activities have resulted in large numbers of casualties, including women and children, as well as material losses amounting to tens of billions of dollars.

It is also worth noting that Durov was previously arrested in France in August 2024. At the time, the French authorities accused him of being involved in online illegal activities such as “drug trafficking, child sexual abuse, and fraud.” He was not allowed to leave France and travel to Dubai until March 2025.

In summary, the Russian authorities have filed criminal charges against Durov and issued an international arrest warrant, further squeezing Telegram’s space to operate and potentially sparking a new round of global attention on social media content responsibility, cross-border law enforcement, and the protection of user privacy.

Moreover, if Durov is subsequently extradited or detained, this case could break the existing balance in the regulation of social platforms and have far-reaching implications for operating rules and regulatory frameworks worldwide.

#国际通缉令 #Telegram

The divergence in performance between the S&P 500 and industry sectors has intensified, with sector return gaps exceeding 10 percentage points for 8 weeks this year, the highest since the 2020 pandemic.

July 29 news: The Kobeissi Letter, citing data from Sevens Report, noted that the U.S. stock market is showing historically high internal volatility.

As of July 17 this year, the gap between the best- and worst-performing sectors in the S&P 500 has exceeded 10 percentage points for 8 weeks, marking the highest level since the 2020 pandemic.

The data shows that half of these 8 instances of a more-than-10-percentage-point gap occurred after late May. This also suggests that even as overall index volatility remains limited, sector-level competition continues to heat up.

Looking back historically, such sector divergence during the same period of the year only occurred in 2000, 2001, and 2009. In all three periods, the market faced tremendous pressure without exception.

From a full-year perspective, the record for the most weeks of extreme sector divergence in the U.S. stock market was 21 weeks in 2000, followed by 15 weeks during the 2008 financial crisis.

Taken together, all signs indicate that beneath the apparent calm of the current market lies a serious risk of structural volatility. Historically, after similar market conditions have appeared multiple times, the market has often undergone sharp corrections.

How long do you think this pattern of sector fragmentation in U.S. stocks will continue? Will capital continue to cluster and break out, or will a broader pullback follow? For the cryptocurrency market sectors, would this be a major bullish signal?

#美股 #标普500

On Tuesday, total net outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs were $49.75 million, while spot Ethereum ETFs saw a daily total net inflow of $14.53 million

On July 29, according to SoSovalue data, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a total net outflow of $49.75 million yesterday, marking the fourth consecutive day of net outflows;

Among them, BlackRock’s IBIT recorded a daily net outflow of $54.83 million (860.79 BTC). Currently, IBIT’s cumulative net inflow stands at $60.33 billion;

Meanwhile, Grayscale’s BTC ETF recorded the only net inflow yesterday, with $5.08 million (79.74 BTC);

As of now, spot Bitcoin ETFs’ total net asset value is $77.23 billion, accounting for 6.02% of Bitcoin’s total market cap, with cumulative total net inflows of $51.32 billion.

On the same day, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs recorded a total net inflow of $14.53 million, marking the second consecutive day of net inflows; and on the day, no ETH ETF recorded a net outflow of spot funds.

Among them, BlackRock’s ETHB and ETHA recorded daily net inflows of $5.91 million (3,090 ETH) and $3.47 million (1,810 ETH), respectively;

Morgan Stanley’s MSSE also recorded a daily net inflow of $5.15 million (2,690 ETH).

As of now, spot Ethereum ETFs’ total net asset value is $10.50 billion, accounting for 4.53% of Ethereum’s total market cap, with cumulative total net inflows of $11.21 billion.

Among other ETF categories, SOL and HYPE ETFs recorded daily total net outflows of $18.07 million and $1.24 million, respectively.

#比特币ETF #以太坊ETF

V God发布 Diamond iO 混淆方案，大幅压缩 iO 算力开销，隐私密码学或迎新突破

On July 28, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin published the technical article “Obfuscation (Part 2): Diamond iO,” focusing on a new indistinguishability obfuscation (iO) cryptography scheme called Diamond iO. The scheme is designed to address the core pain point of traditional iO suffering from excessively high computational overhead.

Diamond iO enables programs to be encrypted so that, after receiving plaintext inputs, they can run normally and output results, while fully hiding the program’s internal logic and built-in keys. This provides important technical support for sensitive computing scenarios.

The computation time of traditional mainstream conservative iO protocols reaches a “cosmic-level,” and in theory they cannot be practically deployed. In contrast, Diamond iO improves the BGG+14 attribute encryption (ABE) architecture, successfully compressing the running overhead to a “planetary-level.”

Although this cryptography scheme is still not ready for commercial use, with only a small amount of optimization it is expected to be adapted to some application scenarios, bringing new possibilities for the practical deployment of program obfuscation technology.

The scheme’s core architecture is fully homomorphic encryption (FHE) nested with ABE. Efficiency improvements are achieved through three main mechanisms: designing dedicated conditional decryption logic, modifying function outputs to produce pseudorandom results, and using a tensor fusion mechanism so users can generate input encodings independently.

Compared with traditional multi-layer nested constructions, the Diamond iO architecture is more concise, with computational complexity equivalent to ordinary function encryption, thereby significantly reducing redundant computations.

From a security perspective, the scheme relies on two new cryptographic assumptions—All-product LWE and Evasive LWE—that have not yet been widely verified, so there is theoretical controversy. The industry still needs extensive security reasoning and validation to establish reliability;

From an engineering deployment perspective, the scheme only fits low-depth circuits. Hash operations are the main performance bottleneck, and it has drawbacks such as oversized parameter scales and accumulated noise. Vitalik outlines optimization paths such as replacing efficient PRGs and streamlining the FHE nesting layers.

Overall, once Diamond iO is deployed, it could support scenarios such as encrypted private key custody, privacy-preserving smart contracts, and untrusted encryption services, providing a new foundational tool for Web3 privacy infrastructure. However, it still has a long development cycle before large-scale real-world deployment.

#Vitalik #Web3隐私

US Senate reschedules agenda, postponing the progress of the “CLARITY Act”; multiple negative factors weigh on the crypto market and collectively weaken it

On July 29, with only a few days left before the US Senate’s summer recess begins on August 7, the window for the industry to push for the enactment of the “CLARITY Crypto Bill” is drawing to a close.

As the United States’ first comprehensive digital asset regulatory framework, the bill is intended to delineate the respective regulatory responsibilities of the SEC and CFTC, and to clarify compliance standards across the entire industry—marking a milestone for the crypto sector.

The bill has taken nearly five years to prepare. It was originally planned to complete a full-chamber vote before the recess. However, the Senate adjusted its agenda priorities, placing the sanctions bill against Russia as a priority for review, forcing the voting process for the “CLARITY Act” to be delayed.

This development not only clearly dampened market expectations for near-term regulatory rollout, leading market participants to adopt a more cautious posture overall, but also directly suppressed risk appetite in the crypto market.

Meanwhile, multiple external negative factors are hitting the crypto market at the same time. Among them, a broad selloff in the Asia semiconductor sector triggered global risk-asset liquidation, compounded by the market’s wait for the Federal Reserve’s July policy decision, causing crypto assets to pull back broadly.

In terms of market performance, Bitcoin dipped slightly to the $63,000 range. Ethereum, XRP, and other altcoins saw deeper declines, and within 24 hours the liquidation volume of crypto leveraged positions exceeded $670 million.

In addition, crypto institutions have continued lobbying lawmakers to advance the bill. The Police Union of America has already stated support for the revised text, but Democratic lawmakers remain divided—particularly on consumer protection and on ethical provisions related to cryptocurrency trading by public officials.

According to prediction-market platform data, the probability that the bill will be formally enacted within 2026 is only around 30%. If the current window before the recess is missed, and with the midterm elections approaching, the difficulty of advancing legislation afterward will increase significantly.

#CLARITY法案 #美国加密监管

If the Fed releases a more dovish signal or provides support for Bitcoin

On July 29, according to analysts’ views reported by CoinDesk, if the Federal Reserve releases a more dovish signal, it could provide a positive boost to Bitcoin’s price action.

At present, Bitcoin is holding steady above $63,000, with a monthly gain of about 6%, while AI-related tech stocks and semiconductor stocks are generally weakening.

There is disagreement in the market regarding the Fed’s policy decision on Wednesday. According to the CME FedWatch data, the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged is about 70%, while the probability of an unexpected 25-basis-point rate hike is 30%.

And this kind of disagreement is precisely the result that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh intends. The aim is to deliberately reduce the use of forward guidance, making it difficult for investors to clearly anticipate the central bank’s next move.

Block Scholes research analyst Thahbib Rahman noted that since 2015, for each Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, there have only been two occasions when the market’s expectations diverged to this extent.

Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33 Research, said that as the Nasdaq index has maintained an upward momentum since early July and positioning has expanded increasingly, while BTC has continued to trade near multi-year lows, their correlation has weakened.

As the month moves into its latter part, the divergence between U.S. stocks and Bitcoin has become even more pronounced. Bitcoin is up about 6% within the month, the S&P 500 is essentially flat, and the semiconductor stock basket has fallen nearly 20%.

Over the past month, softer inflation data, rising geopolitical tensions, higher oil prices, and tariff risks have combined to cause the market’s expectations for U.S. stocks to fluctuate repeatedly. But Rahman noted that even so, sentiment in the crypto market continues to improve.

On this basis, if Warsh releases any dovish-leaning signals at the press conference after the Fed’s FOMC meeting this Wednesday, it could further drive Bitcoin to outperform the broader U.S. stock market.

#美联储 #利率决议