奔跑财经-FinaceRun

US regulators formally launch public consultation on AI computing power futures contracts

According to Bloomberg, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is preparing to solicit public input on AI computing power futures, and the related request-for-comments draft has been submitted to the White House Office of Management and Budget for review.

After the White House completes its review, the CFTC will open a 30- to 60-day public comment and feedback period. The consultation will focus on key issues including index reliability, risks of market manipulation, the settlement mechanism, and standardized definitions of computing power.

This solicitation is not the same as a rule proposal or a final approval decision, nor will it necessarily affect the timeline for introducing new products on exchanges. Therefore, whether the initiative can ultimately move forward will still depend on the outcome of regulatory review.

Meanwhile, derivatives powerhouse CME has partnered with data service provider Silicon Data. The two plan to launch, on October 5, benchmark-based AI computing power futures contracts. The index is designed to track daily price benchmark changes in the GPU rental market, aiming to provide consistent pricing for a market that has long lacked transparent reference prices.

In addition to CME, the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) is also advancing two competing computing power futures products. One contract is based on the Ornn computing power price index, denominated in US dollars, with cash settlement. This contract enables price-discovery mechanisms for multiple types of computing hardware.

The second is NativX’s COIL index, which tracks tokenized computing, and standardized computing and connectivity capabilities related to energy. The related contracts can be traded in combination with power and natural gas products, making it easier to manage both computing power and energy costs simultaneously.

Although ICE has not yet publicly disclosed the exact launch timeline, CME and ICE are moving in parallel, which already demonstrates that market demand for computing power futures is taking shape.

Analysts also noted that while the coexistence of multiple benchmark contracts can enrich market choices, it can also lead to fragmented liquidity—an inherent potential cost behind the increase in contract options.

As US AI infrastructure investment continues to grow, many crypto mining operations are accelerating their transformation, converting existing computing resources into AI computing power colocation/hosting services. At the same time, industry demand for hedging computing power costs is rising accordingly.

However, the rollout of computing power futures still faces challenges, including the extremely fast pace of AI hardware iteration, which makes pricing benchmarks uncertain, as well as significant regional differences in computing power supply and demand that cause wide spreads—both of which make standardized contract design difficult.

#算力期货

Uniswap Founder: In the Era of Tokenized Assets, AMM-Related Correlated Asset Pairing Will Reshape Global Liquidity

Recently, Uniswap founder Hayden Adams posted on X that the core competitive advantage of AMM’s automated market-making model lies in the correlated asset pairing mechanism formed through the natural evolution of the market.

Specifically, in the DeFi ecosystem, tokenized assets will spontaneously pair and trade with other assets within the same ecosystem. When liquidity providers allocate two assets with highly correlated price movements, the risk of holding inventory positions is lower, and the pool’s liquidity becomes deeper.

As tokenization of real-world assets advances, a unified on-chain settlement layer can break down the fragmentation of traditional market systems and the limitations of relying on USD rails—enabling direct trading between any assets.

Adams believes that, compared with delta-neutral strategies used by traditional market makers, correlated pairing can significantly reduce market-making costs—for example, directly pairing NVDA with SPY would deliver far higher trading efficiency than trading NVDA versus USD.

In fact, an Uniswap pool on the Robinhood Chain has already validated this logic. In it, among trading pairs formed by ten tokenized stocks and SPY, trading volume surpassed $33 million in the first 12 days after launch, with some trades occurring during U.S. stock market closures.

Correlated trading pairs also appeared in the pool, such as a combination linking Musk’s MEME coin with Tesla stock, highlighting stronger adaptability and innovation potential in AMM-related pairing logic.

In Adams’s view, passive liquidity will replicate the successful path of the development of index funds—thereby greatly lowering the barriers to market creation and participation, and unlocking more far-reaching industry impact.

Overall, although Uniswap has processed more than $4.6 trillion in cumulative trading volume, Adams still believes AMM is in its early development stage, with ample room for future growth.

#Uniswap #AMM

Binance seeks to reapply for an FCA license to return to the UK market, possibly paving the way for the relaunch of local financial services in 2027

On August 18, according to Cointelegraph citing The Daily Telegraph, Binance plans to apply to the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) for a financial regulatory license, with the earliest expectation of resuming some services for UK residents as soon as 2027.

Notably, this strategic move comes as new UK digital-asset legislation is set to take effect, potentially creating a policy window for Binance’s return to the UK market.

Under the new rules, applicant companies may submit applications between September and February 28, 2027. The new regulatory regime will officially come into force on October 25, 2027.

Looking back, Binance’s regulatory journey in the UK has been anything but smooth. As early as June 2021, the FCA made it clear that Binance’s UK subsidiary, Binance Markets Limited, "must not carry out any regulated activities in the UK".

Facing regulatory pressure, Binance in 2023 announced it would stop accepting new users in response to the UK regulators’ strict rules on financial promotions. At the time, these restrictions directly affected Binance’s ability to expand its business in the UK market.

However, the regulatory environment is now shifting. The crypto-asset regulatory framework published by the FCA in June this year provides the industry with a clear compliance pathway, and Binance’s license application is based on this timeline and compliance standards.

David Geale, Executive Director at the FCA, said the new framework requires crypto firms to meet standards that are "similar" to those of traditional financial institutions. This also means Binance, if it is to obtain a license successfully, must comply with more stringent regulatory requirements in areas such as anti-money laundering, asset protection, and governance.

A Binance spokesperson responded that they would not comment on "speculation regarding any potential license application." This low-key approach may reflect Binance’s cautious consideration of its strategy to restart the UK market.

If the license application is approved smoothly, Binance could relaunch compliant local services for UK users in 2027. This would be a key piece in its effort to further complete a global compliance map.

#币安 #FCA合规牌照

Castle Securities: Sustained High Yields on 30-Year US Treasuries Continue to Plague Financial Markets with Persistent Inflation and Fiscal Risks

According to market sources, Castle Securities (Citadel Securities) in its latest analysis noted that the Federal Reserve’s current policy path is pushing long-term US Treasury yields to remain at multi-decade highs, a phenomenon that may bring broader risks to the overall financial market.

Despite a recent cooling in inflation and employment data, the yield on the US 30-year Treasury bond still rose to 5.28% at one point, the highest level in 19 years. This trend indicates that the market remains highly alert to long-term inflation pressures and fiscal risks.

Castle Securities believes that inflation pressure has not fully dissipated, and the next policy decision by the Federal Reserve still faces significant uncertainty. The direction of the interest-rate path is expected to continue as a key variable influencing the pricing of various assets.

In the investment arena, while the market generally favors leading developers of cutting-edge AI models, Castle Securities is more bullish on cloud infrastructure and hyperscalers, with top technology firms becoming the institution’s key focus.

Specifically, the institution tends to invest in leading tech companies that have advantages in computing-power infrastructure—such as Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet, the parent company of Google (GOOGL)—rather than early-stage startups engaged in developing innovative models.

Overall, Castle Securities believes that inflation pressure has not yet eased, the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions still carry considerable uncertainty, and the interest-rate path will continue to be a crucial factor affecting the prices of various assets. Investors therefore need to closely monitor developments in interest-rate policy.

#城堡证券 #国债收益率

Rumors of a 60-day extension to the Iran-Iraq ceasefire deal spark, bitcoin rises slightly in the short term—waiting for confirmation of the trend

The ceasefire memorandum of understanding signed by Iran and the U.S. in June officially expired on August 17. On that day, the market reported news that the ceasefire could be extended. As bitcoin is a sensitive indicator of geopolitical risk, it is becoming a focus for investors.

Citing an Arab TV report, as quoted by the “Kobeissi Letter,” Pakistan—via mediation—reports that the U.S. and Iran have reached an agreement to extend the ceasefire by 60 days.

However, as of that day, neither side had issued official confirmation, leaving uncertainty about the final outcome of the agreement. Moreover, behind the rumors of an extension lies a more complex diplomatic game.

According to earlier media reports, the Trump administration chose to bypass Iran’s usual negotiators and established a direct communication channel with Iran through Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional President Nechirvan Barzani, who was also trusted by both the U.S. and Iran.

Although the communication channels have been established, differences between the two sides remain. Trump insists that Iran must never be allowed to have nuclear weapons. He even publicly called on Iran to “raise a white flag to surrender,” clearly underscoring the vast gap between their positions.

Meanwhile, Washington also issued a warning to the Omani government, opposing its involvement in negotiations related to reopening the Strait of Hormuz, showing the U.S.’s determination to maintain a hardline stance in the region.

The news comes at a time when global investors are highly sensitive to developments in the Middle East. Bitcoin is awaiting further clarity, and any official confirmation or denial could trigger another round of price turbulence.

Affected by the event, the price of bitcoin saw a modest jump, and it is currently holding above $64,000. Market analysts generally believe that once the relevant parties confirm or deny the reports, bitcoin’s price will enter a new round of sharp volatility.

#美伊停火再次延期

Alleged BitMart employee publicly holds management accountable; founder urgently responds, saying the account was hacked

On August 17, an alleged BitMart employee published a public accountability statement through their official Chinese X account, issuing multiple serious demands to BitMart’s core management.

Because the wording was relatively harsh and the stance was clear, the message spread rapidly across the community, sparking widespread discussion and speculation in the market about BitMart’s official position.

The statement requires management to respond directly to key questions by August 19, including where users’ funds went, the reasons for restricted withdrawals, and the tracing of related funds. It also calls for an actionable user repayment plan and an employee salary payment方案.

The statement emphasizes that if BitMart’s core management believes the accusations above stem from misunderstandings, they can respond one by one using public, verifiable evidence. However, the truth will not fear public and transparent follow-up questions.

The statement further warns that if, by the deadline, there is still no complete, transparent, verifiable asset explanation and repayment plan, the existing materials and leads will be submitted to law enforcement agencies, regulators, lawyers, and the media in various places for further investigation.

It also calls on the entire Web3 industry, the media, and relevant individuals to pay attention to and help promote an open and transparent investigation, in order to protect users’ and employees’ rights and maintain industry trust.

This public accountability action directly prompted comments and a response from BitMart founder Sheldon. He claimed that BitMart’s Chinese official X account had been compromised and that the related content was not posted by current employees.

In summary, this incident not only exposes potential internal management issues within BitMart and risks to fund security, but also serves as a warning to the industry about transparency and governance standards. Market participants are closely watching developments and awaiting further official clarification from the platform.

#BitMart #Web3信任危机

The operating institutions for the digital yuan have expanded to 30, with 8 additional banks joining to connect to the PBOC-side system services

On August 17, the People’s Bank of China officially announced the addition of 8 banks serving as digital yuan business operating institutions. The relevant institutions have been formally approved to connect to the PBOC-side digital yuan system.

This move is intended to implement the deployment in the “15th Five-Year Plan” outline to “steadily develop the digital yuan,” further enhancing the inclusiveness of digital yuan services, and meeting the public’s demand for secure, convenient, and efficient payment services.

The 8 newly added institutions include three national joint-stock banks—Ping An Bank, Hengfeng Bank, and Bohai Bank—as well as five city commercial banks with regional characteristics—Shanghai Bank, Hangzhou Bank, Huishang Bank, Changsha Bank, and Guangxi Beibu Gulf Bank.

After ensuring that all preparations are in place and passing the acceptance and evaluation by relevant departments, these newly added bank institutions can officially launch and provide end-to-end services for opening, redeeming, and circulating digital yuan to the public.

As a result, the total number of digital yuan operating institutions has increased to 30. This is the second expansion of the digital yuan operating system within the year, following the addition of 12 institutions in April this year. The coverage of services and the range of market participants continue to broaden.

The People’s Bank of China said that going forward, it will proceed with the expansion of operating institutions in an orderly manner according to market-based and rule-of-law principles, continuously stimulating the initiative and creativity of market entities, and gradually building an open, inclusive, and fair-competitive development ecosystem for the digital yuan.

#数字人民币

Goldman Sachs: Market expectations for Fed rate hikes are “overly aggressive”; a September hike is now “highly unlikely”

August 17, according to a report by Caixin-Linked, Goldman Sachs Group recently released a report stating that as inflation in the world’s largest economies continues to cool, current market expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes still appear overly aggressive.

In a note to clients, Goldman’s Chief Economist Jan Hatzius wrote that due to weakening retail sales and disappointing employment figures, the triple overlapping signals that inflation is continuing to cool have made a September rate hike “highly unlikely.”

In a report published on Sunday, Hatzius pointed out that, according to the firm’s baseline economic forecasts, the outlook for inflation over the coming period is more likely to improve further rather than worsen again. Therefore, the investment bank believes that the market has priced in expectations for the federal funds rate too aggressively.

Also, according to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in September has risen from 50% last week to nearly 70% currently. The probability of a 25-basis-point hike has fallen from 50% to 30%, which seems to validate Goldman’s assessment that the market’s rate-hike expectations are overly aggressive.

In addition, data from the Polymarket prediction platform further supports this trend. On the platform, traders are betting on a 75% chance that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in September, while the probability of a 25-basis-point hike is only 25%.

Overall, as the trend of cooling inflation becomes established and economic data weakens, the Fed’s monetary policy stance is undergoing a subtle shift, and Goldman’s view also provides the market with an important reference perspective.

Do you think current market expectations for Fed rate hikes are overly aggressive? Do you agree with Goldman’s view that the Fed will not hike rates in September? Leave your thoughts in the comments!

#高盛报告 #美联储货币政策

Chainalysis sues the U.S. government for favoritism toward a rival; Bitcoin holds firm around $62,500

Recently, blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis filed a lawsuit with the U.S. Court of Federal Claims, alleging that the Department of Homeland Security/U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (DHS/ICE) engaged in clear favoritism during the awarding of a contract.

Reportedly, the core of this lawsuit is an exclusive contract. Chainalysis claims that government agencies bypassed the normal competitive bidding process for this blockchain analytics contract and directly awarded the work to its competitor, TRM Labs.

To Chainalysis, this is effectively a heavy blow. Since the company’s founding, its blockchain investigative tools have covered nearly all major law-enforcement agencies. Moreover, government contracts are both its main source of revenue and a symbol of its standing in the industry.

Now, a large exclusive contract that should have been publicly bid out has instead been directly awarded to the competitor TRM Labs—essentially tearing an opening in the company’s most core business footprint.

Analysts note that at the heart of this dispute is simply a commercial contract battle between two blockchain analytics companies. It is neither a ban on crypto assets nor an industry enforcement action. For the market, it is just marginal noise and is unlikely to drive a sustained, trend-forming行情.

Looking at market conditions, Bitcoin traded in a narrow range around $63,225 throughout the day, rising only 0.1% intraday. Ethereum was also moving sideways in tandem. This may suggest that the broader market has largely ignored the impact of this lawsuit news.

In addition, the Fear and Greed Index remains in the fear zone below 40, with overall liquidity relatively thin—pointing to the market’s fragility. However, around $62,500, buy orders keep pouring in, firmly defending this key support.

Still, the bearish news failed to trigger widespread selloffs. Instead, buying support continued to emerge during the decline. This implies that selling pressure has already been absorbed earlier, and that some funds are quietly positioning themselves amid fear sentiment.

At present, the market generally treats $62,500 as the short-term line dividing bulls and bears. If support holds and the technical picture strengthens, a price rebound could be triggered. If it breaks down, the next target would be $59,000–$61,000; heavier downside selling pressure would likely be in the $44,000–$55,000 range.

#Chainalysis起诉美国政府

10x Research: Bitcoin Trading Volume Falls to a Trough, Market Awaits a Breakthrough Opportunity

According to 10x Research’s latest report, the Bitcoin market is experiencing a rare contraction in trading volume. Daily trading volume has fallen to $26 billion, the lowest level since October 2023.

This signals that the market has cooled sharply from the active period following the presidential inauguration and the peak in last October’s sudden crash. Bitcoin is currently consolidating within the narrowest price range in months.

Market sentiment is also showing a clear shift. Options flow data indicates that investors’ confidence is entering a phase of recalibration. Implied volatility has dropped to levels typically seen only during the summer lull, reflecting a strong wait-and-see mood in the market.

At the same time, ETF fund inflows remain weak, stablecoin outflows continue, and Strategy—once the market’s most reliable buyer—has turned into a seller for four consecutive weeks. Taken together, these signals suggest a subtle change in market dynamics.

From historical experience, Bitcoin’s consolidation within such a tight price band usually does not last long. This “calm before the storm” often precedes an important breakout in the days ahead.

Overall, the current market appears to be at a critical turning point where the macroeconomic backdrop, technical factors, and market structure may all change the narrative within the next few days.

As investors, we should closely monitor these data points and prepare for the possibility of a potential market turn.

#比特币交易量

Anthropic IPO valuation targets 2028 revenue forecasts, drawing attention with Wall Street’s forward pricing

According to Reuters, two sources familiar with the matter said that as AI company Anthropic prepares for an IPO, Wall Street is adopting a forward-looking perspective in valuing it. The company is being valued based on its estimated revenue of between $190 billion and $200 billion in 2028.

That figure far exceeds the $47 billion annualized revenue metric it disclosed in May of this year, highlighting just how strongly Wall Street is betting on the AI firm’s future growth potential.

For investors, however, it also means having to accept expectations that Anthropic’s scale will grow dramatically—from its current annual revenue of $47 billion to $200 billion two years later.

Sources said that bankers and investors use forecast-based enterprise value-to-revenue multiples to assess Anthropic’s value. While this approach is relatively common among high-growth software companies, looking out to performance two years from now is unusual.

This method both reveals the rapid pace of Anthropic’s business expansion and reflects that the company is still spending heavily on AI infrastructure. Any valuation benchmark model lacks a stable anchor point and remains fraught with significant uncertainty.

Among other comparable reference targets, Palantir stands out as one of Wall Street’s highest-valued stocks, priced at 53 times its expected revenue for this year; meanwhile, the price-to-earnings ratios for SpaceX and Cloudflare are both 41.6 times their expected annual revenue for this year.

Based on these valuation benchmarks, investors are betting that Anthropic’s revenue growth will outpace the growth of costs such as computing power, model training, and personnel—thereby driving profit margin expansion.

In sum, Wall Street’s IPO valuation strategy for Anthropic both showcases unprecedented optimism in the AI industry and exposes the real challenges facing valuations of currently high-growth tech companies.

When traditional valuation methods are hard to apply, the market must rely on future expectations to support today’s price. While this approach gives room for innovative companies to develop, it also carries substantial risk.

Whether Anthropic can achieve a leap from $47 billion to $200 billion within two years will not only test the sustainability of its AI business model, but also redefine a new benchmark for valuations of tech stocks.

Do you agree with this “forward-looking valuation” approach—where Wall Street prices today’s IPO based on a two-years-later revenue forecast for an AI company?

#AI公司IPO估值

Tornado Cash founder: The U.S. Department of Justice has enforcement logic flaws, and the blame points directly at Google and OpenAI

Recently, Tornado Cash founder Roman Storm publicly accused the U.S. Department of Justice of having logical flaws in its case, and said that under the same prosecution standards, Google and OpenAI should also be held responsible for their products being misused by North Korean IT workers.

Storm cited a recent investigation on social media platform X, stating that North Korean IT workers continue to use ChatGPT for writing and coding, and also use Google Gemini to forge and tamper with images.

According to data from the U.S. Treasury Department, in 2024, North Korea’s nuclear weapons program spending was about $800 million, and most of this funding came from wage income earned by North Korean IT workers.

If the DOJ’s logic in the Tornado Cash case—holding developers accountable for illicit use—is applied, then these two tech giants, Google and OpenAI, should also be responsible for the illegal activities of North Korean IT workers, because they provide services and profit from subscriptions.

In August 2025, Storm was convicted for conspiracy to operate an unlicensed remittance business. The ruling also set a legal precedent that software developers may be held liable for code that is used for illegal purposes.

In Storm’s view, writing code is essentially a technical creation activity and is not inherently unlawful. He also stressed that the law should hold the criminals responsible, not the tool makers, because writing code itself does not constitute a crime.

Storm concluded with a sarcastic remark: if the DOJ can keep its enforcement logic consistent, it should subpoena every employee at Google and OpenAI, examine whether they knew their tools were being used by North Korean IT workers, and sue them under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

What do you think? Do you believe Storm’s accusations against Google and OpenAI hold up? Should software developers also be held accountable for users’ wrongdoing? Leave your thoughts in the comments!

#TornadoCash

Total net outflows for BTC and ETH spot ETFs this week were approximately $392 million

On August 16, according to SosoValue data, U.S. BTC spot ETFs recorded nearly $390 million in net outflows this week, marking the first week of cumulative net outflows since August;

Among them, Fidelity’s FBTC, Grayscale’s GBTC, and BlackRock’s IBIT ranked in the top three for total net outflows for the week, with $153 million, $88.3 million, and $78.96 million respectively;

Next were ARK ⟨&⟩ 21Shares ARKB, Bitwise BITB, and Franklin Templeton EZBC, which recorded weekly total net outflows of $70.36 million, $31.59 million, and $23.85 million respectively;

VanEck HODL, Invesco Galaxy BTCO, Hashdex DEFI, and WisdomTree BTCW recorded weekly total net outflows of $10.3 million, $7.88 million, $4.3 million, and $4.02 million respectively;

Meanwhile, Grayscale’s BTC and Morgan Stanley’s MSBT saw weekly total net inflows of $75.98 million and $7.08 million, respectively;

As of now, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is $76.61 billion, accounting for 6.07% of Bitcoin’s total market capitalization, with cumulative total net inflows of $51.79 billion.

In the same week, U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs recorded nearly $2.26 million, also logging the first week of cumulative net outflows since August;

Of these, BlackRock’s ETHA and Fidelity’s FETH recorded weekly total net outflows of $16.39 million and $5.6 million respectively;

Grayscale’s ETH, BlackRock’s ETHB, and Morgan Stanley’s MSSE recorded weekly total net inflows of $15.07 million, $3.86 million, and $0.81 million respectively;

As of now, the total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs is $10.52 billion, accounting for 4.64% of Ethereum’s total market capitalization, with cumulative total net inflows of $11.45 billion.

Among other spot ETFs, besides the DOGE ETF, which recorded nearly $565,000 in weekly total net outflows this week, the XRP, SOL, LINK, HBAR, and HYPE ETFs all recorded weekly total net inflows to varying degrees.

#比特币ETF #以太坊ETF

Analyst: Based on Bitcoin’s cycle patterns, predicts the market will bottom in October and recommends phased positioning

Yesterday, crypto analyst Ali Charts posted an X tweet stating that, based on Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle, he predicts that the market bottom of this BTC bear market will appear between October 6 and October 16.

In line with this assessment, he offers operational advice: investors can use a DCA (dollar-cost averaging) strategy to build positions in stages within the price range of $62,000 to $48,000, in order to seize the opportunity presented by the final round of panic-driven selloffs.

In fact, as early as August 7, he had already stated that Bitcoin’s macro bottom might already be in place and that a bull market restart is imminent. Now, as the bear market is nearing its end, he reiterates that this is the key moment to shift to a bullish outlook.

Do you agree with Ali Charts’ cycle-based prediction? Would you follow his advice to accumulate in batches or wait and watch? Share your views in the comments!

#熊市底部预测

BTC spot ETF sees total net outflows of $57.63 million on Friday, while ETH ETF records no net inflows on the day

August 15 news, according to SoSovalue data, the U.S. BTC spot ETF had total net outflows of $57.63 million yesterday, marking the third consecutive day of net outflows;

Among them, BlackRock’s IBIT recorded the largest net outflow of $55.51 million (883.34 BTC), and its cumulative net inflows now stand at $61.10 billion;

Next were Fidelity’s FBTC and Hashdex DEFI, which saw daily net outflows of $6.84 million (108.79 BTC) and $1.42 million (22.67 BTC), respectively;

Meanwhile, Bitwise’s BITB became the only BTC ETF with net inflows yesterday, with $6.14 million (97.68 BTC);

As of now, total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is $7.661 billion, accounting for 6.07% of Bitcoin’s total market cap, with cumulative total net inflows of $51.79 billion.

Notably, among the 11 ETH spot ETFs on the same day, none saw any net capital flows; however, LINK ETF recorded $1.47 million, becoming the only U.S. crypto ETF to achieve total net inflows yesterday.

#比特币ETF #以太坊ETF

Binance founder CZ: Only 4.4% of the Bitcoin supply remains to be mined; actual circulating supply is even scarcer

On August 15, Binance founder CZ posted on the X platform stating that, as of this August, more than 20.07 million BTC have been mined, leaving just 4.4% of the supply still to be mined.

He also estimated that 10%-20% of the mined bitcoins have permanently left the market due to being lost/frozen/can’t be recovered, so Bitcoin is essentially a deflationary asset.

User Aman added that over 20 million BTC have been mined, with fewer than 1 million BTC left to be produced. But permanently lost coins also mean the actual circulating supply is far lower than the nominal supply. Therefore, effective circulating supply is the key to BTC’s scarcity.

User Aman Sai further added that although Bitcoin’s maximum supply is 21 million, the actual circulating amount may be lower due to permanently lost coins—the true available supply is what determines scarcity.

CZ replied that many long-term holders basically don’t move or spend their BTC. This market phenomenon also further exacerbates the scarcity of effectively tradable Bitcoin.

In summary, CZ’s remarks are intended to refocus the market’s attention on the underlying logic of Bitcoin’s scarcity: the remaining 4.4% to be mined, the roughly 10%-20% permanently lost ratio, and stable holdings by long-term holders—all point to BTC’s deflationary characteristics.

And from the perspective of supply and demand, the fewer BTC the market has available for trading, the more sensitive the price becomes to changes in demand—providing solid hard-core support for its long-term value. This is not just a viewpoint forecast, but also an important signal prompting the market to reassess scarcity.

#CZ #BTC稀缺性

Galaxy: Passage probability of the “CLARITY Act” plunges to 10%; the SEC and CFTC are forced to “act separately”

On August 15, Galaxy Research analyst Alex Thorn, in a report, sharply cut the passage probability to 10%. Once seen as a U.S. crypto regulatory milestone, the “CLARITY Act” is now sliding significantly away from bipartisan political consensus.

This downward revision reflects a string of political setbacks, including unresolved government officials’ crypto ethics rules, pressure from community banks causing Republican support to loosen, and ongoing disputes over developer-protection provisions.

Given that the Senate majority leader failed to push for a vote before the August recess, and after the Senate reconvenes in September, the remaining window for legislation is only two to three weeks. Against this backdrop, the SEC and CFTC immediately abandoned waiting and launched independent actions.

On the SEC side, it is re-examining two administrative measures that had previously been put on hold—namely the “Reg Crypto” exemption and the “Innovation Exemption.” The former would create a new pathway for primary issuance of crypto assets, while the latter allows tokenized securities to trade in secondary markets on DeFi platforms.

These two measures were paused due to opposition from the traditional securities industry, but they may now be restarted—possibly because prospects for the bill have dimmed. Internally, institutions are reassessing their feasibility, and the text is expected to be published within the next few weeks to months.

However, Thorn points out that even if these measures are introduced, such “time-limited sandbox” rules will still face legal challenges and could take years to be fully implemented.

Meanwhile, the CFTC has taken a more direct enforcement posture. The agency is actively pushing for jurisdiction over prediction market contracts, and has issued an emergency order in response to the New York State attorney general’s efforts to ban Kalshi event contracts nationwide.

In addition, time pressure is also intensifying. SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce plans to leave in November; her departure could shift the balance within the SEC regarding crypto policy and adds extra urgency to rulemaking.

In summary, although the two agencies’ independent actions can help fill some policy gaps in the absence of unified legislation, the related administrative measures still need to go through a long process of judicial review and rulemaking. In the near term, the “fragmented” state of U.S. crypto regulation is unlikely to change.

#CLARITY法案

“The Wall Street Journal” asks for dismissal of Binance defamation lawsuit: says it cannot prove “actual malice” based on a denial statement alone

August 14, according to market sources, The Wall Street Journal formally filed a motion with a federal court requesting the dismissal of the defamation lawsuit brought by Binance in March 2026.

The lawsuit stems from three prior reports published by the Wall Street Journal that alleged Binance was involved in obstructing an investigation into illegal trading, retaliating against compliance personnel, disbanding an internal investigation team, weakening cooperation with law enforcement agencies, and allowing sanctioned Iranian entities to trade on its platform.

However, in its motion to dismiss, Dow Jones’ Wall Street Journal said that Binance cannot prove that the media acted with “actual malice” based solely on a “self-serving denial statement.”

In addition, under current U.S. defamation law, plaintiffs involving matters of public interest must prove they “knew the statements were false and still published them” or “recklessly disregarded the truth” in order to prevail.

During Wednesday’s oral arguments, the Wall Street Journal’s attorney, Katherine Bolger, further pointed out that while Binance sent a denial statement, it did not directly refute the core arguments underlying the three reports.

At present, the federal judge has heard both sides’ oral arguments but has not yet ruled on the motion to dismiss. The central legal issues in the case are whether the Wall Street Journal’s reporting is true and whether there was malice.

In summary, the essence of this case is a dispute over the boundary between freedom of expression in news reporting and the protection of corporate reputation;

and the court’s final ruling will also clarify the legal scope of rights enforcement for cryptocurrency companies when responding to investigative reporting by the media.

#诽谤诉讼