Liam叔叔
Open Trade
Frequent Trader
4.7 Months
Investment logic, market insight, trader and writer.
38 Following
227 Followers
500 Liked
24 Shared
All
Quotes
PINNED
See original
Why Talk About Investment Logic
It's the weekend, let's talk about why we need to do investment analysis.
Why discuss logic? Because it is the first step in building your own investment system. We need to understand what we are actually buying. What role does it play in the cryptocurrency field?
This is the original intention of writing this blog: to clarify a project with friends, gather enough information, and make the most correct judgment I can, discussing and correcting together with everyone.
After understanding investment logic, you can start your own trading using tools. Whether it's technical analysis or macro and micro news, this requires more information and more judgment. This method applies to short, medium, and long-term investments.
Why discuss logic? Because it is the first step in building your own investment system. We need to understand what we are actually buying. What role does it play in the cryptocurrency field?
This is the original intention of writing this blog: to clarify a project with friends, gather enough information, and make the most correct judgment I can, discussing and correcting together with everyone.
After understanding investment logic, you can start your own trading using tools. Whether it's technical analysis or macro and micro news, this requires more information and more judgment. This method applies to short, medium, and long-term investments.
See original
Time to sleep!
To summarize briefly, tonight we have seen the QT end and the 25 basis point rate cut being traded. During the subsequent speech, Jerome Powell still adopted a hawkish stance, stating the 'driving in the fog' theory, which we judge to be slightly hawkish since a government shutdown is unlikely to last until December, and there will be data coming out.
Now, among the after-hours tech stocks, Meta, Google, and Microsoft have all released their earnings reports, which did not produce any major negative impact.
At the same time, tomorrow's meeting between the University of Tokyo and Osaka University is 99% likely to bring good news, otherwise, they wouldn't be meeting to discuss.
Therefore, the plan remains unchanged, and as everyone's confidence gradually recovers, the upward trend should align more logically.
#美联储降息预期 $BTC $ETH
To summarize briefly, tonight we have seen the QT end and the 25 basis point rate cut being traded. During the subsequent speech, Jerome Powell still adopted a hawkish stance, stating the 'driving in the fog' theory, which we judge to be slightly hawkish since a government shutdown is unlikely to last until December, and there will be data coming out.
Now, among the after-hours tech stocks, Meta, Google, and Microsoft have all released their earnings reports, which did not produce any major negative impact.
At the same time, tomorrow's meeting between the University of Tokyo and Osaka University is 99% likely to bring good news, otherwise, they wouldn't be meeting to discuss.
Therefore, the plan remains unchanged, and as everyone's confidence gradually recovers, the upward trend should align more logically.
#美联储降息预期 $BTC $ETH
See original
The worst news tonight may be that the probability of a rate cut in December has decreased significantly. However, what old Powell means is that due to the government shutdown, we have no data, "it's like driving in fog, it's best to go slow."
Note, I do not believe this is a conclusion, and the data will lead us out of the shadows; the probability of a rate cut in December is still quite high. Overall, it is not too hawkish, just a little bit.
However, back to $BTC , I still feel very weak, as if no one is playing anymore. Moreover, it is gradually decoupling from the US stock market, especially the RUT, which used to have a very high correlation. This is really not good news.
Note, I do not believe this is a conclusion, and the data will lead us out of the shadows; the probability of a rate cut in December is still quite high. Overall, it is not too hawkish, just a little bit.
However, back to $BTC , I still feel very weak, as if no one is playing anymore. Moreover, it is gradually decoupling from the US stock market, especially the RUT, which used to have a very high correlation. This is really not good news.
See original
The QT ends on December 1st.
Is there no support and resistance today? It could be that the smart money is simply gone, or it has already traded everything.
It feels like the cryptocurrency circle has indeed lost too much confidence after 1011. Sigh.
Many times, confidence is like gold! I don't know if it can come back? Binance really should face this issue head-on.
#缩表结束 #1011
Is there no support and resistance today? It could be that the smart money is simply gone, or it has already traded everything.
It feels like the cryptocurrency circle has indeed lost too much confidence after 1011. Sigh.
Many times, confidence is like gold! I don't know if it can come back? Binance really should face this issue head-on.
#缩表结束 #1011
See original
What does everyone think?
I hope it's the same as my idea, that after a new horizon, we start a real uptick all the way until early December!
#美联储利率决议即将公布
I hope it's the same as my idea, that after a new horizon, we start a real uptick all the way until early December!
#美联储利率决议即将公布
See original
Today can be a bit more optimistic.
Because today there is a high probability that QT ENDS. Tomorrow there will be a meeting with Trump and the big conference, and meeting must be a good sign.
It's impossible to meet and tear things apart; if they meet and tear things apart, then diplomacy can resign.
#中美贸易战新进展
Because today there is a high probability that QT ENDS. Tomorrow there will be a meeting with Trump and the big conference, and meeting must be a good sign.
It's impossible to meet and tear things apart; if they meet and tear things apart, then diplomacy can resign.
#中美贸易战新进展
See original
Tonight is another FOMC day, are you all ready? Last time was a double kill for both bulls and bears, only through experience can we grow!
Let's talk about today, today, a 25% cut should have already been traded 100%, the key is whether the end of quantitative tightening is today. The market generally believes it is today. If it really is, we will see a bullish line that breaks through the ceiling.
Wishing everyone good luck, see you at 2:30 tonight!
$BTC #美联储降息预期 $SOL
Let's talk about today, today, a 25% cut should have already been traded 100%, the key is whether the end of quantitative tightening is today. The market generally believes it is today. If it really is, we will see a bullish line that breaks through the ceiling.
Wishing everyone good luck, see you at 2:30 tonight!
$BTC #美联储降息预期 $SOL
See original
After the US stock market opened, it was another wide fluctuation. The cryptocurrency market is really good at cutting losses...
Maybe I should return to the US stock market A-shares, give me the ball, I want to go home.
#加密市场回调
Maybe I should return to the US stock market A-shares, give me the ball, I want to go home.
#加密市场回调
See original
Opinion&42 Investment Logic—The Battle of Smart Contracts Breaking into the Mainstream
With the quiet rebound over the weekend and the strong opening and rise of the US stock market today, many people are starting to pay attention to alts again. Today, let's talk about a type of project that matches best with smart contracts—prediction markets.
Let's talk about the leading polymarket, which has entered the mainstream financial view. Now everyone wants to know the likelihood of an event happening, and the first website they will look at is polymarket. Its logic is very strong because it is simple. As long as there is a guaranteed bet, I know the answer, and I will definitely invest heavily. Therefore, the odds of this bet on the website are the results voted on with real money, which will definitely be a reference indicator. Moreover, polymarket is basically confirmed to issue tokens next year. As the second web3 project to break into the mainstream after Bitcoin, yes, you heard that right, polymarket is seen as greater than Ethereum in the eyes of ordinary people. This project is definitely worth paying attention to.
Let's talk about the leading polymarket, which has entered the mainstream financial view. Now everyone wants to know the likelihood of an event happening, and the first website they will look at is polymarket. Its logic is very strong because it is simple. As long as there is a guaranteed bet, I know the answer, and I will definitely invest heavily. Therefore, the odds of this bet on the website are the results voted on with real money, which will definitely be a reference indicator. Moreover, polymarket is basically confirmed to issue tokens next year. As the second web3 project to break into the mainstream after Bitcoin, yes, you heard that right, polymarket is seen as greater than Ethereum in the eyes of ordinary people. This project is definitely worth paying attention to.
See original
I went out to have some fun over the weekend and had a few drinks with good friends. Let's briefly summarize the weekend and talk about the market.
The Sino-U.S. trade talks over the weekend were very harmonious, quite similar to what we expected, and everyone basically found a mutually compromising balance point. Next week, Trump will visit Asia and meet with Chinese leaders.
It can be said that the biggest stone weighing down the market recently has been lifted. The short-term rebound couldn't be held back over the weekend.
Next up is the earnings season for U.S. stocks, and this report is very important! How is the U.S. economy doing? The earnings of the seven sisters are the best proof. Everyone should pay more attention.
Lastly, there's the FOMC, and we also need to pay attention to Powell's rhetoric.
#中美贸易谈判 #加密市场反弹
$BTC $ETH
The Sino-U.S. trade talks over the weekend were very harmonious, quite similar to what we expected, and everyone basically found a mutually compromising balance point. Next week, Trump will visit Asia and meet with Chinese leaders.
It can be said that the biggest stone weighing down the market recently has been lifted. The short-term rebound couldn't be held back over the weekend.
Next up is the earnings season for U.S. stocks, and this report is very important! How is the U.S. economy doing? The earnings of the seven sisters are the best proof. Everyone should pay more attention.
Lastly, there's the FOMC, and we also need to pay attention to Powell's rhetoric.
#中美贸易谈判 #加密市场反弹
$BTC $ETH
See original
It seems that everything on Earth has taken off except for this cryptocurrency market.
Will there be a market trend next weekend? What is this divergence about? The lingering fear from 1011?
#CPI数据来袭
Will there be a market trend next weekend? What is this divergence about? The lingering fear from 1011?
#CPI数据来袭
See original
Indeed, it is good news!
CPI and core CPI are both 3.0, lower than the expected 3.1%!
Inflation is easing.
CPI and core CPI are both 3.0, lower than the expected 3.1%!
Inflation is easing.
See original
Next Thursday, Trump will meet with Xi! The three o'clock should be Trump's trip to Asia. He should take off!
#TRUMP $BTC
#TRUMP $BTC
See original
Tonight at three o'clock, Trump will make a statement, and everyone needs to pay attention. However, generally speaking, Trump does not say unfavorable things about the market on Thursdays; he usually does so on Fridays.
Politicians also care a lot about the feelings of the number one big brother!
#特郎普 #TRUMP
Politicians also care a lot about the feelings of the number one big brother!
#特郎普 #TRUMP
See original
Today's TSLA earnings report, afterwards, will $DOGE and $FLOKI take any action?
Don't forget, it's a time of many events.
#加密市场回调
Don't forget, it's a time of many events.
#加密市场回调
See original
Bluwhale Investment Logic - Data Rights Concept
Write about today's airdrop$BLUAI . The reason for discussing this project is that it is quite different from what we talked about before. It is the kind of depin project that is very easy to exploit.
In simple terms, its logic is that your data can be sold. Compared to traditional web2 services, user data basically belongs to the service provider. However, in today's AI era where data is king, users are actually at a disadvantage. Projects like Bluwhale are designed to return data to users, allowing them to sell it back to themselves. Similar to this is the previously popular depin project Beemap, and so on.
In simple terms, its logic is that your data can be sold. Compared to traditional web2 services, user data basically belongs to the service provider. However, in today's AI era where data is king, users are actually at a disadvantage. Projects like Bluwhale are designed to return data to users, allowing them to sell it back to themselves. Similar to this is the previously popular depin project Beemap, and so on.
See original
Brothers, be careful.
Let's talk about the market first. Since the settlement on 1011, it has been a week and two weekends. How is everyone?
Let's summarize. The overall market is very weak, and the upward momentum is very low. These past few days have also seen a very weak rebound.
Why? Because many macro and market events are set to happen in the next week or two, including negotiations between China, the United States, and Malaysia, and then the meeting between China and the U.S. at APEC on the 31st; the U.S. earnings season is coming, and tech giants also need to report their results; plus this month's Federal Reserve interest rate meeting and subsequent discussions.
Is the trade war still just talk? Is AI technology really profitable? Is the U.S. economy really in recession? When will the U.S. government reopen?
It can be said that the complexity in the next two weeks will be at its peak, and every single issue will have a greater impact on the fundamentals than Trump's 100% tariff threats (similar to childish threats in schoolyard arguments).
Brothers, take care.
#加密市场反弹 #现货黄金创历史新高
Let's summarize. The overall market is very weak, and the upward momentum is very low. These past few days have also seen a very weak rebound.
Why? Because many macro and market events are set to happen in the next week or two, including negotiations between China, the United States, and Malaysia, and then the meeting between China and the U.S. at APEC on the 31st; the U.S. earnings season is coming, and tech giants also need to report their results; plus this month's Federal Reserve interest rate meeting and subsequent discussions.
Is the trade war still just talk? Is AI technology really profitable? Is the U.S. economy really in recession? When will the U.S. government reopen?
It can be said that the complexity in the next two weeks will be at its peak, and every single issue will have a greater impact on the fundamentals than Trump's 100% tariff threats (similar to childish threats in schoolyard arguments).
Brothers, take care.
#加密市场反弹 #现货黄金创历史新高
Login to explore more contents
Explore the latest crypto news
⚡️ Be a part of the latests discussions in crypto
💬 Interact with your favorite creators
👍 Enjoy content that interests you
Email / Phone number
Trending Topics
BTC90kBreakingPoint
6.3M views
28,917 Discussing
🚨 URGENT: HUGE NEWS regarding BITCOIN PRICE! You MUST read this:
Bitcoin just dropped from $110K to $90K in two weeks - a straight, violent 14-day flush. But here’s the part that’s breaking every rule of the past cycles: BTC dominance fell 4% during the crash. That doesn’t happen.
Not in 2018.
Not in 2020.
Not in 2022.
When Bitcoin nukes, dominance normally rips higher because alts bleed twice as fast. This time? Others/BTC pairs have fully recovered from the Oct 10 crash. Alts are refusing to die.
That tells us something very unusual is happening: retail is not panic-selling altcoins… but whales are aggressively rotating at the top.
This doesn’t look like a retail-driven meltdown.
This looks like cartel-level rotation inside the Top 10, dominated by big entities shifting positions in BTC and mega-cap alts while leaving the rest of the market strangely untouched.
It’s the kind of internal redistribution you only see when:
• strong hands are accumulating quietly
• weak hands are getting forced out of BTC
• and large players want coins to change owners before the next expansion phase
We’re watching a controlled structural reset - not a chaotic capitulation.
And the one bright signal right now?
BTC dominance is falling while alts hold firm.
That almost never happens this deep into a correction.
If Bitcoin stabilizes anywhere near $90K–$94K, this could become the ignition point for the rotation everyone’s been waiting for. Markets don’t behave like this by accident. Something big is forming underneath. Like and share so more people understand what’s unfolding! #BTC90kBreakingPoint #MarketPullback #StrategyBTCPurchase #USStocksForecast2026 #AltcoinMarketRecovery
Professor Mende - Bonuz Ecosystem Founder
42 Likes
39.6k views
USStocksForecast2026
6.3M views
25,277 Discussing
StrategyBTCPurchase
61.8M views
174,106 Discussing
