对冲交易

The market correction has hit the middle Bollinger Track, which is relatively mild.

In the next step, if it continues to break the middle rail, you can try to buy low near the lower rail and use options to hedge.

The multi-singers are shouting for 100,000 yuan, but now there is no hope.

However, the possibility of another bullish trend of 70,000+ is still high.

The downward correction and the mid-track takeover are signs of little selling pressure.

Strategy for next week.

Make the pie big and short the top 20 public chain coins by market value for hedging.

The position is 2 to 1.

When hedging short-money options, the position is also 2:1.

How do I exchange positions for my aunt and my brother who had previously hedged the second-tier currency? It's very simple, close some long and short positions at the same time.

Just use the unlocked margin to continue opening new hedging positions.

If you have opened a big pie hedging position before, you can pocket the appropriate profits.

Wait for the signal that the decline has completed, and then buy low again to build a position.

When trading in the currency circle, hedging is king. Don’t worry about one-sided gambling.

As the pie rises and falls, continue to look for arbitrage opportunities. Every surge and crash is an opportunity to get rich. #热门话题 #对冲交易 $BTC $ETH

Try to do a new track hedging today, fil hedging ar

Transaction logic, the future development of web3 and AI, will have a very large demand for storage. For decentralized applications, there is no reason to use centralized storage. Then the only two storage heroes are fil and ar.

Judging the strength, the current narrative is obviously that AR is stronger, and Western capital also favors it more. However, the market capitalization is fil stronger. And a lot of old money in the currency circle is on fil.

After comprehensive judgment, I decided to go long fil and short ar, with a one-to-one position ratio.

Brothers who are interested are welcome to play together. Test the water first with a small position.

$FIL $AR #热门话题 #对冲交易

Today’s hedging strategy, the market is picking up, be wary of another pullback

Maintain hedging and repeatedly harvest the price difference as the market fluctuates.

STX has skyrocketed and is once again close to the upper Bollinger Track. You can hedge with a small position first.

Go big and go short stx, the position is 2 to 1.

Sell ​​out-of-the-money call options with an exercise price of 72,000, and the ratio of spot to option positions is 2:1.

The recovery process of Auntie will be more ups and downs. It is recommended to hedge with options and not to open a position in second-tier coins. $BTC $ETH
#热门话题 #对冲交易

[6.22 hedging strategy sharing, Bitcoin enters a downward trend, beware of the risk of retracement, and do a good job of hedging protection]

When the moon is full, it will be waning, and the profit cannot last long. Whether it is the US stock market or Bitcoin, it has been rising for too long, and the view of retracement is gradually increasing.

From the data, the trend of Bitcoin breaks below the lower track of the daily Bollinger Band, and the daily line forms an obvious M top. The historical volatility of Bitcoin has gradually risen steadily, but the implied volatility has continued to decline, and has approached the historical low, IVP34.9.

The divergence of volatility shows that traders are very pessimistic about the market outlook in the next 30 days, the trading momentum is weakened, and the probability of Bitcoin retracement or even a sharp drop increases.

Under this judgment premise, there are several ways to deal with it:

First, continue to cover short-term calls and use time value to subsidize the possible downside losses of Bitcoin.

Second, buy out-of-the-money put options to protect against potential future declines.

Third, go long on Auntie and short on Bitcoin, and use hedging to protect.

I personally prefer covered calls and hedging. Capital shifts from Bitcoin to the speculation of Yitai, especially after the listing of Yitai ETF, this possibility will be very high.

This process will not be achieved overnight. U.S. stocks can be used as a signal. When the three major stock indexes fall back, the hedging of Bitcoin can be started.

At present, use Yitai and Bitcoin exchange rates to go long, and do not take measures against this wave of Yitai.

In terms of pairs trade, go long on Yitai and short on ENs, uni, etc., and you can build positions in batches.

Once Bitcoin plummets, the cottage will follow and form a trampling, so ambush in advance to prevent any accidents.

Yitai's ETF is expected to make it perform strongly, which is the logic of going long on Yitai.

Welcome to join the Ice and Fire Island community for discussion and exchange. Recently, there is a 200U welfare distribution, welcome to receive it.

$BTC $ETH $SOL #对冲交易 #冰火岛

Go long on Bitcoin, go short on STX, the dream combination can start to pay attention to the timing of building a position again

STX completed the mainnet upgrade yesterday, and it is estimated that it will continue to rise in the future.

The best time to short is when the upper rail of the Bollinger Band breaks through.

Go long on Bitcoin, go short on STX, and the position ratio is 2 to 1.

Hold a mid-term position and wait for STX to return to the lower rail. Each cycle takes about a month.

Enjoy the sense of fate of hedging transactions. Let time flow quietly, without rushing or being impatient, and wait for the flowers to bloom.

#比特币减半 $BTC $ETH $STX
#冰火岛 #对冲交易

AR is strong, and FIL can no longer hedge against it in the storage track

AR's rise breaks the previous logic. Although FIL is included in the Grayscale holdings list, it is more of an emotional value, and there are not many actual purchases.

Under this situation, the previous logic of going long FIL and short AR is no longer valid.

Both the dealer and the narrative are optimistic about AR, but it still faces strong resistance in breaking through the upper pressure line.

It is difficult to break through the previous high, and it faces strong retracement pressure after breaking through the upper rail of the Bollinger band.

It is recommended to hedge currencies, pairs trade, go long on Bitcoin, short on AR, and choose the time to open a position after AR breaks through the upper rail, with a position ratio of 3 to 1.

Wait for AR to return to the middle rail of Bollinger. Or wait for Bitcoin to soar. Then stop profit.

#对冲交易 #冰火岛

Hedging is long and LDO is short. Can you choose the right time?

lido is the leader in the staking circuit, but it has been under a lot of pressure recently.

Centralized questioning, backstabbing from various old friends.

Challenges of new technologies for secondary staking.

I really feel sorry for lido for a minute. If you do nothing wrong, sometimes you will be abandoned by the times.

So, if you don’t open short, what are you waiting for?

The winning rate is higher when you choose the right time. When lido rises close to the upper Bollinger Track, you can open a position.

The position ratio is 1:1.

I wish you fortune. For more hedging combinations, come to Ice and Fire Island for exchanges. #热门话题 #对冲交易 $ETH $LDO

[6.19 hedging strategy sharing, Nasdaq rose for seven consecutive days, Blackstone submitted S1 documents, can the cryptocurrency market stop falling and rebound? ]

Don’t be afraid of skyrocketing or plummeting, just be afraid of no rise or fall. The market is not a stagnant pool of water, but a stormy sea. The US stock market is sunny, but the cryptocurrency market is covered with dark clouds.

Fortunately, Blackstone submitted the S1 document of the Auntie ETF, which can be regarded as a ray of sunshine. This morning, the dark green turned light red, and the cryptocurrency market has a trend of stopping falling.

Can it rebound? Specific analysis is needed.

The rise and fall of the big cake is affected by the net inflow and net outflow of the ETF, but it has stabilized overall.

The performance of the global ETP of the auntie is better than that of the big cake, which shows that capital is betting on the surge of the US auntie ETF. Blackstone takes the lead, and it is estimated that the listing time is not far away. The July 2nd rumored on the Internet can be expected.

In terms of altcoins, the EVM system has been affected by the auntie and performed well. ENS is particularly eye-catching and has entered a clear upward channel. Comprehensive analysis shows that the only benefit of ENS from the auntie is the price trend expectation. In terms of earning power, ens is still a project with a concept greater than reality.

Therefore, for this week's hedging strategy, it is recommended that BTC can continue to be covered, and MYT can be partially covered, leaving some exposure for chasing the rise.

For safe chasing, the bull market put spread strategy is recommended. Sell out-of-the-money (at-the-money) put + buy deep out-of-the-money put. As long as the price of MYT falls slightly, does not rise, rises slightly, or rises, the strategy will be profitable. If it plummets in time, the loss of the strategy will be limited.

For pairs trade, continue to pay attention to the hedging of sol and other baskets of tokens. Yesterday's plummeting prompted everyone to close half of their positions with profits, and today they can reopen positions based on the rising trend. For island friends who did not have a bottom position before, it is recommended to wait and see, wait for the trend of the altcoin to touch the upper Bollinger track of the four-hour before hedging and shorting.

Going long ETH and shorting altcoins is a good choice. The position ratio is 2:1 or 1:1.

Going long sol and shorting matic can be entered in batches with a light position at present, and the logic is to be optimistic about the growth of sol.

Welcome to join the Ice and Fire Island to communicate. #对冲交易 #冰火岛 $SOL $ETH $BTC

Beware of weekend declines, this is a very bad signal

After the recent listing of ETFs, most of them have risen on weekends. Starting to fall on weekends means that the overall retail investor potential has declined.

Whale activity selling is also increasing.

Pay attention to the 60,000 support level.

Sell some at-the-money call options appropriately to hedge the downside risk.

#比特币减半 #对冲交易 #冰火岛

Basic knowledge of options, Part 4 (Gamma)

Gamma indicates the sensitivity of the Delta value of an option to the price change of the underlying asset, that is, gamma is a parameter used to measure the change of the delta value. When the option is close to expiration, the gamma value will become larger, and a small change in the price of the underlying asset will cause a large change in the Delta value.

Simply put, you can remember two points. First, the gamma value of at-the-money options is the largest, and the real-money and imaginary-money options decrease towards both ends. Second, the shorter the expiration date, the larger the gamma value.

Therefore, a strategy specifically for gamma values ​​was born, called "Doomsday Lottery".

It is to buy at-the-money call and put options that are close to expiration, and then bet on the huge fluctuations before expiration.

Once the bet is successful, due to the huge gamma value, the income will surge by dozens or hundreds of times.

However, nine out of ten bets are lost, and the doomsday lottery betting on gamma can basically win once or twice in a hundred times, and the average income and expenditure are equal.

How can the law of nature be allowed to be free lunch?

There is a gamma transaction on the Deri platform. It is a new product that makes profits by going long or short on the gamma value. It makes the doomsday lottery a daily routine. If you are interested, you can study it. Its visualization chart clearly depicts the yield curve of gamma trading.
#对冲交易 #冰火岛 $BTC $ETH

Thank you for recharging your faith again.

Ethereum holders are quite anxious recently.

When will it be listed? I have been waiting for so long that my hair has turned gray. Haha $ETH

It will soon soar to the sky!

To chase the rise with options, you can consider the bull spread and ratio spread strategies.

#冰火岛 #对冲交易

[7.18 hedging strategy sharing, capital swaps continue, US stocks fluctuate, can the cryptocurrency market have an independent market? ]

Goldman Sachs analysis has warned the market that the US stock market correction has not ended and the bull market has come to an end. Behind this bearish view, it is probably also affected by the party struggles in the US election, and the market risks have been predicted.

Trump's hot trading is actually a repetition of inflation expectations. Interest rate cuts or inflation first, at present, interest rate cuts come first, so there is no need to be so pessimistic that the bull is gone. After all, the Dow Jones is still rising, the Russell Index is still rising, and the cryptocurrency market may not follow suit.

If following analysts to speculate in stocks can always make money without losses, there will be no poor people in the world.

We must seriously refer to the conclusions of analysts in the general direction, but there will definitely be differences in subtle operations and different asset categories.

The cryptocurrency market is a high-risk asset. Under the current global political and economic landscape, uncertainty is rising and the demand for risk aversion is very strong. Even if the US stock market resumes inflation in the future, Bitcoin is not an ideal asset to resist inflation.

Investing requires rationality, and a little faith is also needed at critical moments. Don't be blindly swept by the market, but you should see the big trend after the small trend.

At the same time, you can do some insurance through forward put bear market spreads to prevent the tail risk of a sharp drop, and generally ignore small callbacks as much as possible.

From the perspective of volatility, there was some collapse in the forward IV of Big Pie in August and September, and it was rumored that the Auntie ETF was listed on July 23. Then the prudent approach can be to deleverage and remove contracts before listing, and only retain spot and forward insurance positions.

The future time after September is still positively bullish, with a target of 10w+.

The short-term target of Auntie is 5600 after September, and the future target is 10w+.

Although the seven sisters of the US stock market have retreated, we believe that the probability of an independent market in the currency circle is still very high. More and more traditional funds will enter Big Pie and Auntie through the ETF channel. The future trend of the two should be that the price continues to rise slowly and the volatility gradually decreases.

Therefore, let's do a covered call strategy together. The next ten years will be the best ten years for Big Pie and Auntie.

Welcome to join Ice and Fire Island to communicate.

#冰火岛 #对冲交易 $BTC $ETH

Today’s hedging trading strategy, pay attention to safety

The sudden rise and fall of the currency circle is the source of profits for hedging transactions. Only by making good use of the fluctuations can you carry out price difference arbitrage.

Big Pie and Auntai have fallen significantly, and the hedged currencies have basically not fallen much. In this case, you cannot blindly cover your positions.

I have always emphasized that leverage cannot be increased, just to prevent hedging imbalances from causing liquidation.

In the current market situation, just continue to hold positions. Funding rates are still friendly to holding positions.

Before the halving, plummeting and rising prices were the usual tactics of bookmakers, so just sit tight on the Diaoyutai.

Option hedging can be forward monthly settlement, sell and call, and the exercise price is 72,000.

You can cover the floating loss part, but the principle is that the total position cannot exceed the margin, and there is no need to add leverage.

There is no rush to close the hedging position that has already made a profit at this time. You can continue to hold it.

I have talked about the concept of closing positions before. Only when you find a combination to open a new position, it is not too late to close the old position.

$BTC $ETH #对冲交易 #冰火岛

[6.29 hedging strategy sharing, US PCE hits a three-year low, but the stock market is still falling, Big Bread and Auntie continue to reduce volatility, and the market will continue to be cold]

The crypto market has entered the sage time. As the embarrassing situation of good news not being fulfilled and rising continues, market sentiment has become cold and dull to the freezing point.

Before and after the release of US PCE data, the market was quite expectant, but the effect was average. US stocks still opened high and closed low, and did not bring strong sentiment.

The volatility of Big Bread and Auntie in the currency circle continued to decline. Big Bread has reached a historical low. Although Auntie is still at a relatively high level, the trend is also continuing to reduce volatility.

The weekend market is likely to continue to maintain a negative decline. At the same time, be careful of the risk of a large retracement.

In this situation, it is recommended to still focus on the covered call strategy, and buy the put ratio spread at delta0.3 to protect against declines.

According to the historical experience of the listing of Big Bread ETF, necessary callbacks can relieve Grayscale's selling pressure and guide new physical assets into ETFs.

The Yitai ETF is likely to follow a similar process, and may have entered the wash period.

In terms of pairs trade, the leading token of the EVM system continues to rise, approaching the upper track of the Bollinger band, and can be hedged with a light position.

Welcome to join the Binghuodao community to communicate together.

#对冲交易 #冰火岛 $ETH $SOL $ENS

Today's hedging strategy sharing, talk about Ethereum ETF's favorable pledge track

Fidelity has modified the ETF application form, indicating that it will no longer be pledged. In other words, once the Yitai ETF is listed, the absolute deflation of Ethereum will be aggravated.

Without staking, there will be no interest, and the ETF income of Ethereum will decrease. However, the pledge income of other Yitai will be relatively improved.

In other words, the larger the scale of the ETF, the higher the return of the pledge track, because staking is the core mechanism of Ethereum's POS, and it must have a certain scale to ensure safety.

So it is understandable that the copycat rises, and it is even more understandable that the market expects Yitai ETF. It can activate the entire second-layer network and generate alpha returns far exceeding other currencies.

Therefore, once the Yitai ETF is passed, it is a good idea to ambush a leader in the pledge and re-pledge track.

At the same time, you can use over-the-counter options to hedge and enhance the income of holding coins.

Let's get back to the point. Today's strategy is still bullish on Ethereum, but you must do a good job of hedging against retracements.

Will the landing deadline on the 23rd pass? The big fluctuations are already undercurrent.

It is recommended to buy the double-buy doomsday options that expire on the 24th at noon on the 23rd.

The price of the aunt soared, and the call option soared 6,000 times. This market may be replicated again. Soaring or plummeting, double buying can take it all.

Unless it does not rise or fall, then you can only admit defeat. Double buying is betting on big fluctuations, so the investment is very small. Under $100, don't invest more.

If you don't want to gamble, you can continue to do covered call strategy. Buy spot and sell call options with an exercise price of 4,000. Expiration date is May 31st.

In the middle of the bull market, I wish you all continue to make a fortune. $BTC $ETH #以太坊ETF批准预期 #冰火岛 #对冲交易

[6.23 hedging strategy sharing, Bitcoin HV and IV both fell, market opinions diverged]

There is a saying that Bitcoin rises in divergence and plummets in consensus. However, the current Bitcoin divergence is very large and has been sideways for a long time. Where will the market go in the future?

People who follow the Buddhist philosophy will say that they come from where they came and go where they are going. I will not fool you. There is a 90% probability that there will be a correction, a plummeting correction.

The analysis logic is: First, the US stock market has peaked, and a type of technology stocks such as Nvidia have grouped together to increase their market value, which is very similar to Tesla in 2021. Profits cannot last long, and prosperity will inevitably decline.

Second, Bitcoin is seriously Americanized, the number of Bitcoins on exchanges has decreased, and ETFs have increased their holdings. The logic of Bitcoin is no longer the logic of the currency circle, but the logic of the US stock market.

Third, the volatility signal. The historical volatility is lower, the implied volatility is lower, and the hope of bottoming out and rebounding is not great, because the price of Bitcoin is already at a historical high. It is also in line with experience to fall and pull back before setting a new high.

I hope my guess is wrong, and Bitcoin will continue to rise to 10K. The purpose of analyzing risks is to prevent risks and avoid losses.

It is recommended to adopt a conservative strategy when market opinions diverge.

First, stop increasing spot holdings, and open medium- and long-term delivery contracts at the same time to partially hedge spot exposure.

Second, you can sell some medium- and long-term out-of-the-money covered options, use the premium to reduce the cost of holding positions and increase the return on holding positions.

Third, you can use a small amount of funds to do some forward bullish spread strategies, so that you can get some of the returns in case of a surge and will not miss out.

In addition, Bitcoin's bearishness does not affect my bullishness. The logic is still the logic of US stocks. When Tesla fell, Nvidia took over.

If Bitcoin pulls back, the Ethereum Fund will take over. Even once the Ethereum ETF is listed, we must be prepared for Bitcoin's plunge.

The routine of capital swapping, one pool pouring into another pool, although the trick is old, it works well.

In terms of Pairs trade, long Yitai and short ens, all island friends have made good profits, right? Just continue to hold positions, ens will continue to go down.

Welcome to join the Binghuo Island community to communicate.
#冰火岛 #对冲交易 $ETH $BTC $ENS

Let's sort out the second-layer coins of Bitcoin as alternatives for hedging transactions

The rise of Bitcoin has led to the vigorous development of the second layer.

The second-layer coins that have been listed have all had new fluctuations recently. You can choose the coins that are close to the upper track of the Bollinger band for hedging.

Arrange from high to low market value

Bch (forked coin), stx (compliant), cfx (domestic concept), ckb (rgb++ technology), rif (L3 concept)

Recently, ckb has attracted market attention again. You can short it lightly at highs and hedge Bitcoin.

The market value of Rif is still relatively small. It is recommended to wait until it enters the top 100 before hedging.

Cfx has already made a short-term correction. The next time it rises and breaks the Bollinger band, you can open a position again for hedging.

Bitcoin is a treasure trove. The competition in the second layer will become more and more fierce. Most of the second layers will be lost in the crowd, which is our arbitrage space. Keep paying attention.

Merlin is waiting for the issuance of coins in full swing. If you have the leisure time, you can go for airdrops.

The development trajectory of the second layer will be parabolic, and you can make profits at highs.
#对冲交易 #冰火岛 $BTC $ETH $stx

Can I short ens? When should I enter the market?

Go long on Yitai and short ens to hedge. You can do it slowly in batches. The trend has already diverged.

Hedging of different currencies, also known as pairs trade, can be one-to-one or 2-to-1.

Hedging of Yitai and ens can be 2-to-1 if you are more conservative. You can build positions in batches to avoid losses caused by continued upward speculation of ens and leave room for replenishment.

When hedging different currencies, do not add leverage and do not exceed 20% of the total position.

Profits cannot last long, and they will decline after reaching their peak. As a seller, you must always be able to endure loneliness and be a friend of time.

I wish the sellers a long-term win and make a fortune together. $ENS $ETH #对冲交易 #冰火岛

[Sharing of hedging strategies on 6.24, the pie fell slightly, the market as a whole is weak, waiting for good news to boost]

This week is another week full of big things. The release of US core PCE data will disturb the market. At the same time, the first TV debate of the US presidential election will also trigger a wave of positive attention on the topic of encryption. Expectations skyrocketed.

The pie fell lower over the weekend, which is in line with the previous volatility signal analysis. The downward trend of pie volatility remains unchanged and shows a gathering trend. When will the mean revert, we have to wait for the news of interest rate cut to come out.

The historical volatility of Ethereum has increased significantly, and the implied volatility is also rising. If nothing unexpected happens, there will be big moves this week, and skyrocketing prices are expected.

Volatility reflects the mentality of traders and predicts traders' risk preference for the future. However, volatility cannot resist sudden changes in external data, so volatility can assist predictions and should be further combined with macro and micro data.

June is coming to an end. Analysts predict that July and August will be mostly boring sideways trading periods. We are collectively optimistic about the market situation after September.

Under this premise, we have stronger reasons to continue to implement the covered strategy and obtain stable income through the passage of time.

The newly opened Yitai 3450 contract + 3500 short call combination a few days ago can only cover the retracement of 3400. Once it falls below 3400, it will lose money. Therefore, you can close the 3500 call position and continue the short 3400 call position until the 28th of this week. If the price continues to fall this week, positions can be moved backward and rolled over before expiration.

If you have not opened a position before, you can buy next week's combination of 3400 delivery contract + short call 3500 today.

A dull knife cuts through the flesh of the falling market. Using coverage near the average value can absorb the time value and play a certain role in covering the retracement, which is very cost-effective.

The coverage of the main spot positions can be maintained at the psychological price and rolled over to September.

In terms of Pairs trade, island friends who are long ETH and short ens have already made quite good profits, so they can just continue to hold positions. It is not recommended to open new positions. When the trend of ens breaks the Bollinger Band, it is recommended to close all positions. For now, just continue to hedge the downside risk of ETH.

Welcome to join the Binghuo Island community and communicate together.

#冰火岛 #对冲交易 $ETH

$BTC

[7.11 hedging strategy sharing, S&P historical high Tesla rose 11 times in a row, how does capital swap affect Bitcoin? ]

Yesterday, the US stock market hit a new high again. The strong trend of the US economy has made the market full of confidence, and the pattern of stocks and bonds rising together is a bull market.

From Nvidia in the early stage to Tesla in the recent stage, the seven sisters of the US stock market have risen in rotation, and capital has smoothly swapped positions, pushing the index higher. However, Bitcoin has not kept up with the pace of the seven sisters recently, and there has been a significant retracement. Can we expect a big bull market to return in the future?

At present, analysts are still optimistic about the violent bull of the big cake, and they all seem to be betting on the surge in September. From the perspective of option data, the heavy bets in September, December, and March next year are also gradually increasing.

From the perspective of volatility, the 7-day HV of the big cake is higher than the at-the-money IV of 1 month, 3 months, and 6 months, and the traction of the implicit wave upward should take effect.

From the perspective of HV history, the 1-month HV is lower than the 6-month HV, and the probability of rising volatility is very high. With the expectation of both IV and HV rising, the expectation of Bitcoin rebound is gradually increasing.

The volatility trend of Yitai is similar to that of Bitcoin. Moreover, Yitai is also superimposed with the expectation of ETF listing. At present, we can expect its strong rebound.

However, from the perspective of volatility term structure, the fv before August was relatively low, and it was high after September. It should be that the market is optimistic about the official launch in September.

As traders, we will not put the ambush of the rise in September. Then continue the covered call strategy before August.

We should not try to eat all the rising profits. As long as we confirm the signal and enter the market to follow the general trend, we can eat part of the profits, which is already a good strategy.

In addition, while waiting for the sideways trading time of Bitcoin and Yitai to start, you may as well continue to trade cross-currency volatility.

The volatility of Sol and Matic is higher than that of Bitcoin. You can sell both cottage options and buy both Bitcoin options to earn the volatility difference. However, this strategy is risky. If you are not good at risk management, please operate with caution and try and make mistakes with a light position.

Welcome to join Binghuo Island to communicate. There will be a welfare lottery in the near future.

#冰火岛 #对冲交易 $ETH $SOL $BTC