宏观经济

#特朗普暂停新关税 【黄金/BTC共振逻辑】（非建议）
📈 数据：黄金3380美元/BTC 94K，相关性达0.82
🔍 技术面：BTC三角突破（支撑90.5K），黄金RSI顶背离
$BTC #宏观经济
主导因素？

The current macro-level is unprecedentedly complex, and the flow of funds in the global capital market is deeply affected by the uncertainty of the external environment. Focusing on potential crises and emergencies around the world, we first noticed that tensions in the Middle East have intensified sharply, and Iran's potential attack threat against Israel is imminent. The White House has issued an early warning and strengthened its defenses. At the same time, the international rating agency Fitch downgraded Israel's credit rating, further reflecting the concerns about regional security.

On the other hand, the shadow of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict continues to loom, and the situation has taken a sharp turn for the worse. Ukraine's military operations have penetrated deep into Russian territory and controlled a large area of ​​territory, including nearly 1,000 square kilometers and several towns and villages. President Putin's tough response hinted that the conflict may escalate further, and even triggered concerns about the use of nuclear weapons, exacerbating the tension in the global security situation.

In addition, changes in the political field are also noteworthy. Trump's leading position in the election prediction market was reversed by Harris, who took the lead in key swing states. The unexpected events encountered by Trump seem to have accelerated this transformation, and the market began to discuss the so-called "Harris trade", but for us, its specific content is not the core. What is important is that the expectation of a non-Trump victory is generally regarded as a negative factor in the capital market.
#宏观经济

🔥【Important data warning】The number of initial jobless claims in the United States is about to be released, will BTC change?

📅 Time: 21:30 (tonight)

📊 Data: Initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending February 1

⚠️ Expected: 213,000 vs. the previous value of 207,000 (if it exceeds expectations, the expectation of a Fed rate cut will increase!)

💡 Pay attention to risks

If the number of unemployed people rises unexpectedly → the US dollar is under pressure → Bitcoin may take advantage of the momentum to break through resistance!

If the data is lower than expected → the US dollar rebounds → Beware of short-term correction risks!

🚨 Recently, macro data has been released frequently, and the linkage between BTC and US stocks has intensified. It is recommended to keep a close eye on the market fluctuations and do a good job of risk control!

Do you think the data tonight will be positive or negative?

⚠️ There may be sharp fluctuations after the data is released. Operate with a light position and refuse FOMO!

#比特币 #美联储 #宏观经济 #交易策略 #币圈情报局 $BTC $SOL $XRP

Follow this week:
In addition to the intensive speeches of the Fed's veterans, there are also some economic data that need attention. The ADP small non-agricultural data can be ignored. Tonight's job vacancies are worth paying attention to, and then there is Wednesday's "service industry" PMI. and "Manufacturing" PMI, the highlight is Friday's "Unemployment Rate" and "Non-Farm Employment". From the current point of view, if the previous value is not revised, the probability of non-agricultural benefit is greater, while the unemployment rate is even higher. Pay attention, because the importance of the unemployment rate indicator has been mentioned several times. If the unemployment rate can be higher than expected and parallel to the previous value of 3.9, coupled with the current non-agricultural data, (provided that the pre-non-agricultural value is not revised) personally There is a high probability that it is a two-way positive, although this rarely happens.
It has entered the halving month + the pre-halving period, which is this week. There are more economic data and Fed officials speaking. I personally suggest that Heyue can stop for a while, although I really like to play out the contract.
The above content is not intended as investment advice, but is for reference only. Thank you for reading! #BTC🔥🔥🔥🔥 #宏观经济 #宏观数据

Amid the frenzy of interest rate cuts, the financial logic behind the "explosion" of the currency circle competes with global capital!

The interest rate cut policy is directly related to the supply and flow of money, especially because of the economic logic behind it and the dynamics of global capital flows.

First, we need to understand the economic logic behind the interest rate cut policy. Interest rate cuts are usually seen as an economic stimulus tool, aiming to stimulate investment and consumption by reducing borrowing costs, thereby promoting economic growth. In this process, the supply of funds in the market increases and liquidity increases, which provides more vitality to the financial market.

However, in the currency circle, this logic is more direct and obvious. Due to the nature of the digital currency market, it is more susceptible to capital flows. When a large amount of money flows into the currency circle, the price of digital currency tends to rise; conversely, when money flows out, the price may fall. This simple physical logic makes the interest rate cut policy an important factor affecting the trend of the currency circle.

So, why will interest rate cuts cause funds to flow into the currency circle? This is mainly due to two factors. On the one hand, interest rate cuts have lowered borrowing costs, making it easier for investors to obtain funds for investment. In the context of seeking high returns, the digital currency market often becomes one of their choices. On the other hand, interest rate cuts may also lead to increased volatility in traditional financial markets, causing some investors to turn to the digital currency market for safety.

However, interest rate cuts are not without risks. For a global economic power like the United States, interest rate cuts may cause funds to flow out of the United States, thus triggering a series of financial risks. In order to deal with this risk, the United States may take a series of measures, including exporting force to reduce financial risks. The existence of such geopolitical risks requires investors to pay close attention to changes in the global political and economic situation while paying attention to interest rate cut policies.

If you are a friend who has been chasing the rise and the fall, often being trapped, without the latest news in the currency circle, and has no direction, follow and check out my top mosquito net. I share the bull market strategy layout with my fans for free, just to increase my followers!

$BTC $ETH $BNB
#BTC☀ #宏观经济 #美联储何时降息？

#宏观经济 #BTC‬ #热门内容 $BTC $BNB

A picture of the economic cycle

Row A indicates the year when Panic will occur;

Line B represents Years of good times, when prices are high, and it is suitable for selling stocks and valuable things;

Line C represents Years of hard times, when prices are low, and it is suitable to buy stocks and valuable things, holding them until good years and then selling them.
Currently between 2023 (C) and 2026 (B)

This chart, drawn by Samuel Benner in 1875, accurately predicted many important events.

⚡️Breaking News

Very bad news for the dollar

According to Iran's foreign minister, the BRICS economic ministers are working hard to advance the final stage of the de-dollarization plan. This news undoubtedly casts a shadow on the future of the dollar.
At such a sensitive moment, will the market continue to fall into the vortex of "fear of missing out" or will it make a clear response based on the CPI data? We can't help but look forward to tomorrow's FOMC meeting, but also feel uneasy about its possible market impact. The market is like a puzzle, and each price point is an indispensable part.

The gold market is currently stable, while the US dollar is nervously waiting before the release of CPI data. At the same time, Bitcoin seems to have a trend of rising from the 67k/66k range, and altcoins are also eager to try and prepare for a new upward cycle.

However, the timing of the announcement of CPI and FOMC news does not seem ideal. Before these major news were announced, market big players chose to wait and see, carefully observing every movement and waiting for the best time to come. At this moment, every slight movement in the market is pulling the heartstrings of countless people.

If you have been chasing ups and downs, often being trapped, and have no latest news in the cryptocurrency circle and no direction, follow me to check the top. I will share the bull market strategy layout with fans for free, just to increase fans!

$BTC $ETH $BNB
#宏观经济 #美元稳定币 #BTC☀

🧐 Is Bitcoin demand "stagnating"? Experts: It's still too early to call it a bear market!

Bitcoin has recently dropped in a way that makes people anxious! From the historical high of $109,000 in January, it has fallen all the way down, with a decline that at one point exceeded 29%. Like the U.S. stock market, it has been affected by macroeconomic instability and concerns over the global trade war. Investors are now guessing: Is this the start of a bear market, or just a normal adjustment before a bull market?

The main reason for Bitcoin's severe drop is macroeconomic instability. The global trade war has caused widespread anxiety, and the financial environment is continuously tightening, which has left investors feeling uneasy and lacking confidence.

Additionally, Bitcoin failed to hold onto key support levels, leading to increased selling pressure and a shift in market sentiment toward safe-haven assets. Currently, investors are more inclined to take a cautious wait-and-see approach rather than risk investing in Bitcoin.

Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, also shared his views on X, pointing out that Bitcoin's apparent demand indicators show that demand remains weak, but it's still too early to label it as a bear market.

However, based on historical experience, periods of low demand are either a precursor to long-term consolidation or a signal for further declines. Therefore, the short-term trend of Bitcoin in the coming weeks is crucial.

Some analysts believe that for BTC to regain a bullish structure, it must recover the range of $90,000 to $91,000, a level that aligns with the 200 moving average (MA) and exponential moving average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart. Breaking through and holding this area would indicate strengthened buying power and lay the foundation for a strong rebound.

Meanwhile, if BTC fails to reclaim the 200-day MA and EMA (around $85,000) in the coming days, selling pressure may intensify, leading the price to challenge the key psychological level of $80,000. Once it falls below, it may trigger further liquidations, pushing BTC into a lower demand zone and continuing its downward trend.

Currently, Bitcoin's price hovers around $84,000, with bulls still striving to reclaim the critical level of $85,000. Market sentiment remains tense, and everyone is waiting to see Bitcoin's next move.

💬 What do you think? Do you believe Bitcoin will stabilize and see a strong rebound in the coming weeks, or will it continue to decline?

#比特币 #加密货币 #CryptoQuant #宏观经济

If the accidental plane crash of the Iranian president is confirmed, what impact will it have on the macro economy and the cryptocurrency world?
#BTC走势分析 #宏观经济 #MemeWatch2024

#美国加征关税 I can only say: The cryptocurrency market and the global economy both need to shake things up.

Let me briefly highlight a few key points for those who don't have time to read long analyses:

1️⃣ The global economy may become increasingly tight.
As tariffs increase, import costs rise, living expenses go up, but wages do not increase, leading to bad inflation.
The trade chain is also getting stuck, causing the global economy to come to a halt, which is not friendly for the stock market, consumption, or even employment.

2️⃣ The short-term outlook for cryptocurrencies is not friendly.
Once the market starts to panic, the first assets to flee are high-risk ones, and cryptocurrencies will definitely be hit hard.
Especially BTC and ETH, which are becoming increasingly correlated with tech stocks; if the NASDAQ drops, they may drop as well.

3️⃣ However, the long-term outlook may be opposite.
If this kind of policy persists, with the dollar's hegemony shaking and inflation spiraling out of control, BTC might actually be regarded as digital gold and held tightly.
In particular, stablecoins might see an increase in demand for cross-border payments, thus benefiting.

4️⃣ Miners need to be cautious.
Tariffs affect hardware imports; for example, if Chinese mining machines are taxed, costs will immediately rise, cutting mining profits directly.
Additionally, with potential regulatory tightening, both miners and project teams need to be more vigilant.

Personally, I feel that this kind of news will have a short-term impact in terms of emotional fluctuations, while the long-term effects depend on the implementation of policies and how various countries respond.
Do you think this wave of tariff turmoil will turn $BTC back into a real safe-haven asset? Let's discuss.
#比特币 #关税 #宏观经济 #币圈避险

Why did the market suddenly plummet?

One of the core reasons is the operation of large investors, which we usually call "whales". The actions of these investors often have a profound impact on the market. Here are some professional and in-depth analyses of how whales may cause the market to plummet:

Large sell-offs: When whales decide to sell a large number of stocks they hold, a large amount of supply will suddenly appear in the market, causing prices to fall sharply. This selling behavior is like a boulder thrown into a calm lake, causing ripples.

Chain reaction of market sentiment: Whales often have inside information or professional analysis that small investors cannot access. Their actions may indicate some changes or potential risks in the market. Once whales start to act, other investors tend to follow suit, forming a chain reaction and exacerbating market volatility.

High profit exit: After a period of sharp rise, whales may choose to exit with high profits. This operation will undoubtedly send a "peak" signal to the market, trigger panic selling by other investors, and further push the market down.

Liquidity crisis: When whales transfer funds, if they operate improperly or on a large scale, they may cause liquidity problems in the market. This will lead to increased market volatility, more unstable prices, and may even trigger a market crash.

Potential market manipulation: In some cases, whales may deliberately create the illusion of a market decline in order to re-buy assets at a lower price. Although this behavior is unethical, it is not uncommon in the financial market.

To deeply analyze the real reasons for the market crash, we need to combine the latest market news, economic indicators and detailed trading data for a comprehensive analysis. Only in this way can we grasp the market dynamics more accurately and provide strong support for future investment decisions.

If you have been chasing ups and downs, often being trapped, and have no latest news in the currency circle, friends who have no direction, follow me to check the top, I will share the bull market strategy layout with fans for free, just to increase fans!
#宏观经济 #比特币政策

Increased regulatory pressure on the crypto market👀
Cryptocurrency benefited from the rise in gold prices yesterday and performed relatively well. On the regulatory front, the New York Attorney General filed a new lawsuit against Gemini Trust and DCG, accusing them of defrauding customers of up to US$1.1 billion. These companies have worked hard for many years to After moving forward through legal difficulties, it now seems to have taken another step backward.
#加密货币 #BTC #ETH #监管 #宏观经济