宏观经济

💰 The Era of Huge Losses for the Federal Reserve Ends After Three Years! Is This a Major Positive for the Cryptocurrency Market?

It has been three years, and the Federal Reserve has finally ended its continuous losses! It has returned to profitability since early November, and the scale of deferred assets has decreased for the first time. The key reason is the interest rate cuts—rates have dropped from a peak of 5.5% to 3.75-4%, significantly reducing banks' interest expenses on reserves.

This is not only a change in accounting items but also an important signal of a shift in monetary policy:
✅ Reduced operational pressure on the Federal Reserve
✅ Further opening of interest rate cut space
✅ Continued improvement in the global liquidity environment

For the cryptocurrency market, this means:
🔥 A rebound in traditional funds' risk appetite
🔥 Market liquidity is supported
🔥 A more favorable macro environment for crypto assets

Historical experience shows that interest rate cut cycles are often a good period for the performance of risk assets. Although the Federal Reserve will not directly purchase cryptocurrencies, a loose monetary environment creates favorable conditions for the entire crypto market.

#美联储降息周期 #宏观经济 #降息期待 #加密市场 #流动性分析

Under the new regulations of the thirteen departments, where is China's Web3 era headed?
The essence of this new regulation is very different from the 924 document of 2021. The old regulation merely clarified the illegality of virtual currency transactions, simply stating that buying and selling U is not allowed, and only discussed the illegal aspects. But the new regulation is different; its core focuses more on joint efforts by departments to combat these behaviors, not just stating that they are illegal, but clearly indicating that they will take proactive measures to crack down on such actions.
The second difference is that the new regulation establishes a joint coordination mechanism. It can be understood that previously there was just a red line saying, "this action is prohibited," but now a dedicated team has been formed, making it clear that "this time it is specifically to combat such behaviors."
Another key point is that the new regulation directly points out stablecoins within virtual currencies, such as USDT and USDC, which are tied to fiat currency and are under scrutiny. The new regulations from the 13 ministries explicitly aim to combat these stablecoins, also stating that stablecoins are mainly suspected of three types of problems: first, money laundering; second, fraud; and third, being exploited by underground banks to transfer domestic funds through related financial transactions.
Therefore, I believe that the new regulations from the 13 ministries will definitely have a much greater crackdown intensity than previous regulations, and it is estimated that there will be a major cleansing in the industry in the next two to three months.
The purpose of the new regulations is not to terminate but to rebuild under the rules. Virtual currency-related businesses can no longer survive in the country, but the legitimate development of blockchain technology still has broad prospects, achieving sustainable development within the regulatory framework.
#web3 #美SEC推动加密创新监管 #宏观经济 #加密市场回调

Texas BTC Strategic Reserve: Sovereign Capital Entry, Institutional Logic Behind ETH Ten Thousand Dollar Prediction?
Recent news indicates that Texas has chosen BlackRock's BTC ETF as the first step in establishing its Bitcoin strategic reserve. This marks the formal and large-scale entry of sovereign-level capital into the Bitcoin market. When a state with a massive global economic scale begins to incorporate Bitcoin into its strategic asset allocation, its impact on the entire crypto market is self-evident. This is different from the previous rumors about the Trump family's heavy investment in ETH, but both point to a renewed recognition of the value of crypto assets by political and traditional financial elites.💰

Does this trend mean that ETH will reach a target of 8000 dollars or even higher, evolving from the community's FOMO sentiment into a potential consensus among institutions? How should we analyze the entry strategies of sovereign funds and large institutions, as well as their considerations when choosing different assets like BTC or ETH? To what extent have structured ETF products changed the value discovery mechanism of Bitcoin? Looking forward to your professional analysis.🌐 #Institutional Entry #Bitcoin ETF #宏观经济

🚨
【Important Data Comparison】When the Federal Reserve's policy shifts, which will rise more sharply, BTC or Nasdaq? The results are astonishing a year later!

#市场预测内容串联

Looking back at the 2019 cycle, we discovered a huge difference between short-term and long-term performance. This has important implications for today's investment decisions.
👇

📅 Benchmark date: July 31, 2019
The Federal Reserve made two major decisions at the same time:

✅ Ended balance sheet reduction

✅ Started interest rate cuts

Subsequent asset performance:
⎻⎻⎻⎻⎻⎻⎻⎻⎻⎻⎻⎻⎻

🏹 Nasdaq 100 Index
3 months later: +5.6%
6 months later: +17.3%
1 year later: +38.2%📈

⛓️ Bitcoin
3 months later: -9.2%
6 months later: -7.2%
1 year later: +41.5%🚀

⎻⎻⎻⎻⎻⎻⎻⎻⎻⎻⎻⎻⎻

💡 Key Insights:

1️⃣ Short-term reactions vary
Nasdaq: Immediately benefited from liquidity improvement, steadily rising
Bitcoin: Suppressed by its own 2018 cycle, initial performance was weak

2️⃣ Long-term convergence
After one year, both saw astonishingly close gains!
Loose liquidity ultimately benefits all risk assets.

3️⃣ BTC's explosive potential
From -7% in 6 months to +41% in 1 year
The increase mainly occurred in the latter half of the year, showing its 'catch-up rally' characteristic.

🎯 Current Implications:

• In the early stages of policy shifts, different assets react at different paces; patience is required.
• Bitcoin may not immediately follow the traditional market upwards, but in the long term, it will never lag behind.
• Over a one-year time frame, the effects of loose monetary policy will be fully reflected.
• This cycle also has support from ETFs and DAT, making BTC's performance potentially more promising.

#比特币 #纳斯达克 #宏观经济 #投资策略

The Federal Reserve is going to ease? Don't rush to go all in! Are you sure this isn't just a 'flash in the pan'? 🤔
The Federal Reserve has been hinting that they might stop QT, and the market immediately surged, with shouts of 'the bull market is here' ringing loud! 📢 Guys, have you forgotten how they misled us last time? The Federal Reserve's words are just for listening, don't take them seriously! Today they say stop, tomorrow they might say continue tapering. Policies like this have too many variables! 🤷‍♂️ Rushing to go all in now, what if this is just a 'flash in the pan'? Market liquidity hasn't really improved, macroeconomic risks are still present, and you're willing to risk everything based on a few words? I can only say, that's quite bold! I wouldn't dare; I'd rather wait and see clearly before taking action. Do you think the Federal Reserve is really going to ease this time? Let me know in the comments! #FederalReserve #QT #宏观经济

Capital flows reversed: Ethereum ETF warms up, deep interpretation of Bitcoin ETF's continuous capital absorption 🚀

Recently, the cryptocurrency asset market has shown positive signals for capital flows. Data shows that after experiencing eight consecutive days of net outflows, Ethereum ($ETH) spot ETF achieved a net inflow of $55.71 million yesterday for the first time, with Fidelity's FETH contributing $95.39 million in inflows in a single day. Meanwhile, Bitcoin ($BTC) spot ETF continued to perform strongly, with a net inflow of as much as $238 million yesterday, led by Fidelity's FBTC with an inflow of $108 million, despite BlackRock's IBIT experiencing a net outflow of $53.68 million. Currently, the total net assets of the Bitcoin spot ETF have reached $110.1 billion, with a cumulative net inflow exceeding $57.6 billion. The reversal of net inflows for the Ethereum spot ETF marks an important turning point in market sentiment, which may indicate that institutional investors are actively adjusting their allocation strategies for $ETH or holding a more optimistic view of its future trends, partially offsetting market concerns caused by the previous continuous outflows. The continued and substantial net inflows into Bitcoin ETF further solidify its position as the preferred allocation for institutional capital, indicating that despite short-term market fluctuations, the long-term consensus among institutions regarding Bitcoin remains strong. The differences in capital flows between different issuers also reflect subtle changes in market competition and investor preferences. The continued influx of institutional capital, especially the successful reversal of outflows from the $ETH ETF, is expected to bring new incremental funds and positive market sentiment to the cryptocurrency market, potentially driving asset prices further up. However, alongside the influx of funds, the market's sensitivity to macroeconomic data and Federal Reserve policies will also increase, for example, this week the probability of a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve has risen to a macro expectation of 73%. Investors should closely monitor the capital flow data of ETFs, using it as a key indicator to assess market sentiment and institutional movements, while also being wary of the short-term volatility risks brought about by macroeconomic changes. #BTC #ETH #ETF #InstitutionalCapital #MarketAnalysis #宏观经济

Next week's news overview, one five-star event and four four-star events. #宏观经济 $BTC

🔥【Important data warning】The number of initial jobless claims in the United States is about to be released, will BTC change?

📅 Time: 21:30 (tonight)

📊 Data: Initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending February 1

⚠️ Expected: 213,000 vs. the previous value of 207,000 (if it exceeds expectations, the expectation of a Fed rate cut will increase!)

💡 Pay attention to risks

If the number of unemployed people rises unexpectedly → the US dollar is under pressure → Bitcoin may take advantage of the momentum to break through resistance!

If the data is lower than expected → the US dollar rebounds → Beware of short-term correction risks!

🚨 Recently, macro data has been released frequently, and the linkage between BTC and US stocks has intensified. It is recommended to keep a close eye on the market fluctuations and do a good job of risk control!

Do you think the data tonight will be positive or negative?

⚠️ There may be sharp fluctuations after the data is released. Operate with a light position and refuse FOMO!

#比特币 #美联储 #宏观经济 #交易策略 #币圈情报局 $BTC $SOL $XRP

The current macro-level is unprecedentedly complex, and the flow of funds in the global capital market is deeply affected by the uncertainty of the external environment. Focusing on potential crises and emergencies around the world, we first noticed that tensions in the Middle East have intensified sharply, and Iran's potential attack threat against Israel is imminent. The White House has issued an early warning and strengthened its defenses. At the same time, the international rating agency Fitch downgraded Israel's credit rating, further reflecting the concerns about regional security.

On the other hand, the shadow of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict continues to loom, and the situation has taken a sharp turn for the worse. Ukraine's military operations have penetrated deep into Russian territory and controlled a large area of ​​territory, including nearly 1,000 square kilometers and several towns and villages. President Putin's tough response hinted that the conflict may escalate further, and even triggered concerns about the use of nuclear weapons, exacerbating the tension in the global security situation.

In addition, changes in the political field are also noteworthy. Trump's leading position in the election prediction market was reversed by Harris, who took the lead in key swing states. The unexpected events encountered by Trump seem to have accelerated this transformation, and the market began to discuss the so-called "Harris trade", but for us, its specific content is not the core. What is important is that the expectation of a non-Trump victory is generally regarded as a negative factor in the capital market.
#宏观经济

Amid the frenzy of interest rate cuts, the financial logic behind the "explosion" of the currency circle competes with global capital!

The interest rate cut policy is directly related to the supply and flow of money, especially because of the economic logic behind it and the dynamics of global capital flows.

First, we need to understand the economic logic behind the interest rate cut policy. Interest rate cuts are usually seen as an economic stimulus tool, aiming to stimulate investment and consumption by reducing borrowing costs, thereby promoting economic growth. In this process, the supply of funds in the market increases and liquidity increases, which provides more vitality to the financial market.

However, in the currency circle, this logic is more direct and obvious. Due to the nature of the digital currency market, it is more susceptible to capital flows. When a large amount of money flows into the currency circle, the price of digital currency tends to rise; conversely, when money flows out, the price may fall. This simple physical logic makes the interest rate cut policy an important factor affecting the trend of the currency circle.

So, why will interest rate cuts cause funds to flow into the currency circle? This is mainly due to two factors. On the one hand, interest rate cuts have lowered borrowing costs, making it easier for investors to obtain funds for investment. In the context of seeking high returns, the digital currency market often becomes one of their choices. On the other hand, interest rate cuts may also lead to increased volatility in traditional financial markets, causing some investors to turn to the digital currency market for safety.

However, interest rate cuts are not without risks. For a global economic power like the United States, interest rate cuts may cause funds to flow out of the United States, thus triggering a series of financial risks. In order to deal with this risk, the United States may take a series of measures, including exporting force to reduce financial risks. The existence of such geopolitical risks requires investors to pay close attention to changes in the global political and economic situation while paying attention to interest rate cut policies.

If you are a friend who has been chasing the rise and the fall, often being trapped, without the latest news in the currency circle, and has no direction, follow and check out my top mosquito net. I share the bull market strategy layout with my fans for free, just to increase my followers!

$BTC $ETH $BNB
#BTC☀ #宏观经济 #美联储何时降息？

Follow this week:
In addition to the intensive speeches of the Fed's veterans, there are also some economic data that need attention. The ADP small non-agricultural data can be ignored. Tonight's job vacancies are worth paying attention to, and then there is Wednesday's "service industry" PMI. and "Manufacturing" PMI, the highlight is Friday's "Unemployment Rate" and "Non-Farm Employment". From the current point of view, if the previous value is not revised, the probability of non-agricultural benefit is greater, while the unemployment rate is even higher. Pay attention, because the importance of the unemployment rate indicator has been mentioned several times. If the unemployment rate can be higher than expected and parallel to the previous value of 3.9, coupled with the current non-agricultural data, (provided that the pre-non-agricultural value is not revised) personally There is a high probability that it is a two-way positive, although this rarely happens.
It has entered the halving month + the pre-halving period, which is this week. There are more economic data and Fed officials speaking. I personally suggest that Heyue can stop for a while, although I really like to play out the contract.
The above content is not intended as investment advice, but is for reference only. Thank you for reading! #BTC🔥🔥🔥🔥 #宏观经济 #宏观数据

QCP Capital Viewpoint: Although BTC is Bullish in the Long Term, Caution is Required for Short-Term Entry

On July 14, QCP Capital released an analysis post regarding the current state of the Bitcoin market, stating that Bitcoin is currently experiencing strong upward momentum, successfully surging past the key price level of $122,000. This rise is driven partly by technical breakthroughs, and on the other hand, a significant increase in institutional demand has played a crucial role.

From the market sentiment indicators, the Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index has rapidly risen from 40 to 70 in just three weeks, indicating a marked shift in market sentiment from 'fear' to 'greed'.

At the same time, institutional investment enthusiasm is surging; last week, net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs exceeded $2 billion, clearly demonstrating a significant increase in institutional participation and indicating that institutions are actively engaging in Bitcoin investment.

In the derivatives market, a series of data also reflects the active market situation. Leveraged long positions have increased significantly, the funding rate for perpetual contracts is nearing 30%, and open interest has surpassed $43 billion, marking the first breakthrough since January of this year, further highlighting the market's heat.

However, the current Bitcoin price has entered unknown territory, making it difficult to accurately predict a short-term top. Fortunately, the options market provides some valuable clues. Implied volatility has not surged along with the spot price increase; although front-end volatility has risen, it remains below last year's average level, reflecting that the market is gradually maturing, and the Ethereum market shows similar characteristics.

Additionally, traders may prefer to use perpetual contracts due to higher option costs. Data shows that the one-month risk reversal indicator is stable, while the September and December indicators indicate strong demand for call options, suggesting that investors maintain a bullish outlook on the long-term market while hedging short-term risks.

Finally, QCP Capital advises that given the current high funding rates, along with the profound lessons from the liquidation incident in February this year, investors should proceed with greater caution. Although structurally optimistic about Bitcoin's upward trend, considering the current price situation, it is more advisable for investors to be cautious in entering the market and to wait for market corrections before making positions.

#比特币走势 #加密货币市场 #机构需求 #宏观经济

The "standstill" crisis is about to be resolved: Polymarket odds have plummeted, and the U.S. government is finally about to "open for business", temporarily alleviating the market uncertainty alarm.
Stability is key, stay observant!
#政府停摆 #加密货币 #比特币 #宏观经济 #市场分析

【Federal Reserve's "hawkish" voice resurfaces, market continues under pressure】

St. Louis Fed President Bullard recently spoke out, emphasizing that the central bank must continue to apply pressure on inflation that is above target. He warned that current monetary policy is in a sensitive position of "between slightly tightening and neutral," approaching the boundary of stopping the tightening pressure.

🎙️ Key insights:
Policy stance: In sync with Cleveland Fed's Harker, believes inflation risks remain, but no further rate hikes are necessary at this time.
Potential risks: Clearly pointed out that government deficits are on an "unsustainable path," which could push long-term rates higher in the future, posing a threat to financial stability.
Market impact: This statement provides the market with a crucial assessment of the degree of policy tightening, directly guiding pricing in the fixed income market and the U.S. Treasury yield curve.

💡 Market interpretation:
Against the backdrop of a labor market still close to full employment, Bullard's comments reinforce the Fed's "higher for longer" rate stance. This means that while the rate hike cycle may have ended, the opening of the rate cut window will be more cautious and delayed than the market expects.

#FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #Inflation #USTreasuries #宏观经济

📰 November 18 Financial News


The U.S. government shutdown issue has officially ended, but recent hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials and the uncertainty surrounding the December FOMC meeting have significantly cooled market expectations for further rate cuts, leading to an overall decline in risk appetite.


Reviewing policy trends: At the end of October, the Federal Reserve cut rates again by 25 basis points, marking the second consecutive rate cut this year. The target range for the federal funds rate has been lowered from 4.00%–4.25% to 3.75%–4.00%, creating a new three-year low. This move demonstrates the Federal Reserve's attempt to seek a balance between supporting economic growth and controlling inflation.


Looking ahead to the December meeting, the Federal Reserve will receive more key data to support decision-making, including September employment, inflation, retail sales, and the preliminary GDP for the third quarter. The market's focus is on whether the employment reports for October and November can be released as scheduled, as this will directly impact the assessment of the policy path.


Morgan Stanley pointed out that if employment and economic data continue to be robust, the Federal Reserve may slow the pace of rate cuts; if the data is weak, there remains room for flexible adjustments to interest rates. In the short term, investors should pay attention to how policy news and macro data affect market risk appetite, especially concerning U.S. stocks, the dollar, and commodity volatility.


💡 Key Takeaway: The end of the shutdown temporarily alleviates policy uncertainty, but the market must remain vigilant about the impact of economic data and Federal Reserve speeches on risk assets before the FOMC meeting.


#美联储 #FOMC #宏观经济 #降息动态 #市场风险

🚨 *Latest News:*
Donald Trump announced *no new tariff measures for now* ⚖️🛑 This decision has brought a sigh of relief to global markets.

🔍 Focus here:
- The White House clarified: No additional import tariffs will be imposed at this time.
- Future plans remain uncertain; he hinted that if the Supreme Court rules he does not have the authority to impose tariffs, a "backup plan" is in the works.
- Targeted parties include:
- U.S. manufacturers and importers
- Countries of concern: China 🇨🇳, European Union 🇪🇺, Canada 🇨🇦

⚠️ Market Notes:
- The short-term market has eased somewhat, but the core issue remains: who will define trade policy?
- The final trend will depend on the Supreme Court's ruling + the next steps from Trump's team.

📌 #特朗普 #关税 #贸易政策 #全球市场 #宏观经济 $TRUMP