交易分析101

#交易分析101 I have been floating in the cryptocurrency world for many years, especially proficient in BTC trading. From the perspective of trading analysis 101, the current technical aspect of BTC shows a bullish moving average arrangement, and the MACD has a golden cross that is rising; fundamentally, global economic fluctuations have led to an influx of safe-haven funds. Moreover, market sentiment is positive, and trading volume has significantly increased. Overall, the potential for BTC to rise further is great. This moment is an excellent entry point, immediately go long on $BTC.

Below are the current support levels for BTC based on #交易分析101 :

- **Key Support Level**: The area around $82,000 is currently the key support level that the market is focusing on. The VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) for 2024 is between $82,000 and $83,000, considered the core support for a bull market. If the BTC price falls below this area, it could disrupt the current trend and further decline to around $77,000 to $72,000.

- **Other Support Levels**: The range between the 50-day moving average (around $77,500) and the 200-day moving average (around $72,000) is also an important support area. If the price can hold above $78,000, it may form a W-bottom pattern, laying the foundation for a subsequent rebound. Additionally, based on historical data, the area around $70,000 to $72,000 is also a dense trading zone on the left side, serving as the support level for the 200-day moving average and an important retracement level after the rebound from the low in August 2024.

It's important to note that support levels are not absolute bottoms for prices but are areas where prices may encounter strong buying support during a decline. Prices may rebound in these areas, but that does not guarantee a rebound. Market conditions change rapidly, and price movements will be affected by various factors including macroeconomic conditions, changes in policies and regulations, and fluctuations in market sentiment.

#交易分析101 ETH Trading Analysis Framework and Key Factors (March 11, 2025)

1. Technical Analysis

Short-term Trend Judgment

Support and Resistance: Currently, the ETH hourly chart moving average resistance is around $2030, while the daily level key support is in the range of $1750-$1820. If it breaks below, it may further test the $1600 area. The latest market situation on March 11 shows that ETH rebounded from below $2000 to around $1850, but if it cannot break through the $2100 resistance in the short term, it may pull back again.

Candlestick Pattern: The daily chart shows consecutive bearish candles and the price is below the moving average, with the MACD's dead cross continuing, indicating a bearish dominance; however, a long lower shadow appeared on the daily chart near $1750, suggesting the effectiveness of short-term support.

Volatility and Cycle Patterns

Historical data shows that ETH has experienced declines of over 60% in bear markets (such as -82.7% in 2018 and -68.3% in 2022), but may later rebound by more than 170%. Recently, the options market has been highly volatile, with a trader achieving a tenfold account increase in one month through ETH put options in February; near-month contracts (such as those expiring in 10 days) have gains of 180%-325%.

2. Fundamental Driving Factors

Market Structure Contradiction

Capital Diversion: BTC spot ETFs attract significant institutional funds (such as BlackRock), while the narrative of ETH’s “complex application scenarios” has decreased in attractiveness, resulting in a capital siphoning effect.

Layer 2 Impact: L2 networks like Arbitrum and Optimism reduce ETH mainnet gas consumption, weakening the effects of the deflationary mechanism (current burn rates cannot cover new issuance).

Supply and Demand Imbalance

Staking Unlock Pressure: A significant amount of staked ETH (especially through protocols like Lido) has entered the circulating market after the merger, compounded by rumors of a 400,000 ETH sell-off triggered by a North Korean hacker incident, intensifying selling pressure.

Institutional Behavior Divergence $ETH

#交易分析101 Easy Analysis 101
I have been in the cryptocurrency space for many years, especially proficient in BTC trading. From the perspective of Trading Analysis 101, currently the technical indicators for BTC show a bullish alignment in moving averages, and the MACD is showing a golden cross upwards; on the fundamental side, global economic fluctuations have led to inflows of risk-averse capital. Additionally, market sentiment is positive, and trading volume has significantly increased. Overall, it is judged that BTC has great potential for further upward movement. This is an excellent entry point; let's go long immediately.

Currently, all indicators are on the brink of collapse. Those with spare cash can try to buy at the bottom, but set a stop-loss. Personally, I am completely pessimistic about future trends. Trump is intentionally popping the stock market bubble, aiming to make America great again. He wants to bring it to the brink of death before revival, but it cannot be ruled out that there will be another short squeeze to lure in more buyers.

#交易分析101
In the invisible battlefield of finance, I have been fighting for many years. Bitcoin trading is a contest of intelligence and courage.
On the technical side, the Stoch indicator has golden crossed in the oversold zone, like a meteor streaking across the night sky, suggesting a market reversal; the price is like a wild horse breaking free, shattering the shackles of resistance and rushing towards a new journey.
On the fundamental side, the applications of Bitcoin are sprouting like bamboo shoots after the rain, and market demand is as strong as a volcanic eruption. At this moment, the time to invest has arrived, and the train of wealth is about to depart. No more hesitation, decisively go long, seize this fleeting opportunity $BTC

Evaluate macroeconomic factors (GDP/CPI), policy trends, and corporate financial reports to determine the intrinsic value of assets, suitable for medium to long-term investment decisions. Combine changes in trading volume/open interest to verify the reliability of price trends, for example, a significant breakout above key resistance levels is more effective. Strictly set stop-loss levels (usually 3%-5% of principal), control individual position sizes, avoid emotional trading, optimize strategies through risk-reward ratios, cross-reference different time frames (daily/weekly) and analysis methods (technical + fundamental) to improve decision-making success rates. Beginners are advised to practice on a simulated account and establish a trading system before operating in real markets.

I personally like to look at technical candlestick charts before trading, and then look at the fundamentals. However, no matter how good the candlestick charts are, I won't buy if the fundamentals are poor. Conversely, if the fundamentals are good but the price movement is poor, I might still buy in. I consider myself a fundamental analyst and believe that fundamentals are very important. Although some cryptocurrencies can be infinitely pumped, they can also drop quickly without a solid foundation. Essentially, it's just about catching people and cutting them off. However, in the trading market, it’s still about speaking with profits. I am someone who has incurred losses, yes, losses, so I can't really say what’s right or wrong. I can only say that I am used to buying in this way; my methods need improvement, and I hope that every failure is a nutrient for success.

#交易分析101
I. Two Pillars of Trade Analysis
1. Fundamental Analysis
Definition: Assessing the intrinsic value of an asset to determine whether its price is overvalued or undervalued.

- **Core Elements**:
Macroeconomic Factors: GDP, interest rates, inflation, employment data, etc.
Industry Trends: Supply and demand relationships, policy impacts, technological innovations.
Company Level: Financial statements (income statement, balance sheet, cash flow statement), price-to-earnings ratio (P/E), price-to-book ratio (P/B), etc.
Application Scenarios: Long-term investment, value investing.
Example: If a company’s P/E is below the industry average and profit growth is stable, it may be undervalued.

2. Technical Analysis
Definition: Predicting future trends through historical price and volume data.

- **Three Assumptions**:
- Prices reflect all information.
- Prices move in trends.
- History tends to repeat itself.
Core Tools:
Candlestick Chart: Identifying patterns (e.g., head and shoulders, double bottom).
Technical Indicators: Moving Average (MA), Relative Strength Index (RSI), MACD.
Support/Resistance Levels: Psychological battles of buying and selling in key price areas.
Application Scenarios: Short-term trading, swing trading.

II. Detailed Explanation of Key Tools in Technical Analysis
1. Candlestick Patterns and Signals
Bullish Signals: Hammer, Morning Star, Breakout Resistance.
Bearish Signals: Shooting Star, Evening Star, Break Support.
Example: The appearance of an “Engulfing Pattern” on the Bitcoin daily chart may indicate a trend reversal.

#交易分析101
Bitcoin trend analysis combines three aspects: technical, fundamental, and sentiment. Technical analysis shows that BTC may oscillate in the range of $60,000 - $70,000, with support around $62,000 and resistance around $68,000. An RSI below 30 suggests an oversold rebound, and increased trading volume can confirm the trend. On the fundamental side, macroeconomic factors (such as interest rate cuts), institutional buying, and halving effects may favor long-term trends, but short-term policy risks should be monitored. If on-chain data shows that long-term holders are accumulating, the bottom becomes more stable. In sentiment analysis, if X discussions and the fear and greed index are neutral (40-50), the market is not extreme yet. In summary, BTC may wait for a breakout in the short term; if it breaks above $68,000, it may look towards $75,000, while a drop below $62,000 could see it fall to $60,000. In the medium to long term, driven by fundamentals, it could test $80,000 - $100,000. It is recommended for beginners to focus on buying at support levels, reducing positions at resistance levels, setting stop losses, and controlling risks, using Binance or TradingView to track real-time data.

#交易分析101 I have been drifting in the cryptocurrency world for many years, especially proficient in BTC trading. From the perspective of trading analysis 101, currently the technical aspects of BTC show a bullish alignment in moving averages, and the MACD is showing a golden cross upward; on the fundamental side, global economic fluctuations are causing safe-haven funds to flow in. Moreover, market sentiment is positive, and trading volume has significantly increased. In summary, the potential for BTC to rise further is great. This is an excellent time to enter the market, immediately go long on $BTC.

For many years in the trading circle of #交易分析101 , trading BTC is like an exhilarating adventure, with hidden secrets at every step. Years of struggle have honed my 'fire-eyed golden vision'.
On the technical side, the Stoch indicator shows a golden cross in the oversold zone, like a shining lighthouse in the dark; the price breaks through the resistance level, akin to a sharp axe cutting through thorns.
From a fundamental perspective, Bitcoin applications are emerging like mushrooms after rain, and market demand is like the rising tide of the sea. Currently, the market opportunities are rare, and the wealth train is about to depart. Don't just watch, take action now, go long, and step onto the fast track of wealth growth.

#交易分析101

Having been through the cryptocurrency market for many years, especially proficient in BTC trading. From the perspective of trading analysis 101, the current technical aspect of BTC shows a bullish arrangement in moving averages, and the MACD is on the rise with a golden cross; on the fundamental side, global economic fluctuations have led to an influx of safe-haven funds. Moreover, market sentiment is positive, and trading volume has significantly increased. In summary, BTC has great potential for further price increases. This moment is an excellent entry point; it's time to go long.

All statements below #交易分析101 are personal opinions and do not constitute any investment advice.
Yesterday, U.S. stocks opened lower and continued to decline, indicating that a significant correction is inevitable based on the performance of various stocks. This may also lead to a collapse in cryptocurrencies due to the influence of the U.S. stock market, but I find this somewhat incomprehensible. Because when BTC was invented in 2008, its original purpose was to become a decentralized asset, and to prevent control by centralized governments. Logically, this seems to belong to a certain degree as a safe-haven asset. However, with the approval of ETFs, it may be more widely understood. Therefore, today's Bitcoin resembles more of a financial product. In the current market, the rampant long contracts are approaching their end; there can be temporary bearish phases, but overall, the future still leans towards bullishness. Now is the era of dollar-cost averaging investors.

#交易分析101
"Trading Analysis 101" is a broad topic that may cover basic trading analysis concepts in financial markets, cryptocurrencies, foreign exchange, futures, or stocks. Here are some core contents suitable for beginners:

1. Fundamental Analysis

Studying corporate financial reports (EPS, ROE, P/E ratio, etc.)

Industry trends and market competition analysis

Macroeconomic indicators (GDP, inflation rate, interest rates)

Significant news and policy impacts

2. Technical Analysis

Candlestick charts: bullish and bearish candles, trend lines

Moving Averages (MA): moving average crossover strategies

Support and resistance: key price ranges

Indicator applications: RSI, MACD, Bollinger Bands, etc.

3. Trading Psychology

Controlling emotions: avoiding FOMO (Fear of Missing Out), panic selling

Risk management: setting stop-loss orders, capital control

Discipline in trading: developing a trading plan and strictly executing it

4. Risk Management and Position Control

Single trade risk does not exceed 1-2% of total capital

Diversify investments to reduce the impact of fluctuations in a single asset

Use leverage cautiously to avoid over-leveraging

5. Trading Strategies and Execution

Trend Trading

Range Trading

Event-Driven Trading

#交易分析101
Having been involved in the cryptocurrency space for many years, trading BTC feels like an exciting and challenging adventure to me. From a trading analysis 101 perspective, technically, the K-line has formed a beautiful bullish pattern, and the Bollinger Bands are expanding upwards, indicating that prices will continue to rise; the MACD indicator has formed a golden cross above the zero line, releasing a strong buy signal.
The fundamentals are also very optimistic, with increasing global economic uncertainty highlighting BTC's safe-haven attributes, and institutional funds continuously flowing in. Market sentiment is high, and investors' enthusiasm is fully ignited. A combination of factors resonates, making BTC's upward momentum almost a certainty. The current entry opportunity is excellent; it's time to go long.

#交易分析101 ◦ Definition: The candlestick chart is one of the most commonly used technical analysis tools. It records the opening price, closing price, highest price, and lowest price of an asset over a certain period (such as 1 minute, 1 hour, 1 day, etc.).

◦ Common Patterns: For example, a large bullish candle (where the closing price is much higher than the opening price, typically indicating strong buying pressure), a large bearish candle (where the closing price is much lower than the opening price, indicating dominant selling pressure), and a doji (where the opening and closing prices are close, indicating a relative balance between buyers and sellers). Different combinations of candlestick patterns can convey different market signals, such as the "Morning Star" often being seen as a potential reversal upward signal, while the "Evening Star" may indicate that the market will turn from rising to falling.

#交易分析101
It is indeed perplexing. If investors manage their positions well and focus on larger market capitalization varieties, it should be much easier, at least without the risk of delisting.
Currently, the market is indeed thrilling, with frequent large fluctuations and back-and-forth movements. Investors should reasonably control their positions, selling high and buying low, so that they can respond to changes with stability. Having too large a position can easily lead to significant losses. For high-quality varieties, it is advisable to build positions in batches, buying more as prices drop and selling at highs, which is the correct approach.
Recently, significant news has been frequent, and the likelihood of the market stabilizing at the bottom is increasing. If positions are managed well, continuously selling high and buying low to reduce costs will consistently lower one's risk.

#交易分析101 'Shen Gong Bao' Quotes: The road in the human world is full of ghosts, yet not a single ghost comes to harm. There are people everywhere in the human world, who isn't scheming against others? When a person doesn't encounter trouble, they can't distinguish between good and bad. So don't think you have many friends. When the day comes that you are in trouble, only then will you know who is a person and who is a ghost.