交易分析101

#交易分析101
When the market is good, keep trading; when it's a money-making market, don't stop. When the market is bad, it's best to take a good rest. Being like a wooden chicken is also a strategy.

When the market is good, you make money not because your skills are top-notch, but due to the larger trend, so you have the necessity to keep trading; it's not that you are strong, but that you can pick up money.

When the market is bad, you won't make money. At this time, keeping trading will only accelerate your losses; in a bad market, not losing is a gain.

Not trading in a bad market is also a strategy; being like a wooden chicken is also a strategy.

Although keeping trading in a good market is tiring, the stimulation from profits can turn that fatigue into excitement.

In the past few days, strategies have been few, entirely because the market is bad. Today feels about right; we can continue to hold off.

$BTC

#交易分析101

Daily Fund Record: March 12, 29U

Yesterday morning's drop caused the funds to change from 54 to 82.

Thinking of a pattern, the market instead made a V reversal.🤣

The account directly exploded on the spot, cutting off the short positions of Btc, eth, and sol when the remaining funds were 20U.

Afterward, with some operations, the funds rose from 20U to 30U.

Almost got liquidated.

I don't know how the market will be today, let's keep working hard.

#交易分析101 I have been floating in the cryptocurrency circle for many years, especially proficient in BTC trading. From the perspective of trading analysis 101, the current technical aspect of BTC shows a bullish alignment of moving averages, and the MACD is trending upwards with a golden cross; on the fundamental side, global economic fluctuations are causing safe-haven funds to flow in. Additionally, market sentiment is positive, and trading volume has significantly increased. In summary, BTC has great potential for further upward movement. This moment is an excellent entry point, immediately go long on $BTC
BTCUSDT
Perpetual

#交易分析101 cfx, leading domestic coin, I don't believe it will just decline like this, starting from now I will invest daily

#交易分析101 Some Tips

1. Time and Volatility Adaptation
Cancel fixed trading periods, shift to event-driven trading: focus on the opening of the US stock market (crypto and US stocks correlation), major protocol upgrades (such as Ethereum forks), or high volatility windows before and after exchanges list new coins. Use 15-minute/1-hour candlesticks to capture impulse trends, and set stop-loss levels to 5%-8% (to avoid false spikes).

2. On-chain Data Integration
Technical analysis combined with on-chain fundamentals: monitor whale address activities (such as transfers from Binance hot wallets), net inflows to exchanges (Glassnode data), changes in stablecoin market capitalization (indications of USDT issuance). The floor price of NFT blue-chip projects and liquidation lines of lending platforms can serve as sentiment indicators.

3. Multi-dimensional Risk Control System
Position Isolation: Main position allocated to BTC/ETH, <20% of funds chasing altcoins
Contract Protection: Prefer perpetual contracts in coin denomination (to avoid stablecoin liquidation), leverage ≤5x
Black Swan Preparedness: Reserve 10% USDT to cope with extreme market conditions (such as exchange failures, regulatory crackdowns)

4. Narrative Cycle Prediction
Grasp the Meme cycle rhythm:
Early bull market: Ambush low market cap public chains (such as Solana ecosystem)
FOMO stage: Chase SocialFi/GameFi hotspots
Bear market rebound: Allocate to BTC ecosystem (Ordinals, Layer 2)
Beware of the 'death spiral': Project teams need to retreat one month before unlocking tokens.

5. Counterintuitive Game Theory
Utilize panic index tools (such as Alternative.me): when the greed index >75, take partial profits, <25 for dollar-cost averaging. Avoid over-reliance on KOL signals and focus on changes in institutional holdings of the top 50 coins on CoinGecko.

The essence of the crypto space is an information arbitrage battlefield, requiring the establishment of a Telegram news monitoring + on-chain bot alert system to maintain sensitivity to regulatory policies (such as SEC lawsuits) and technical vulnerabilities (cross-bridge risks).

#交易分析101 Beep Beep Beep, Check-in Task
The following are some basic contents about 'Transaction Analysis 101', covering the concepts, main types, and commonly used methods of transaction analysis:

Concept of Transaction Analysis

Transaction analysis refers to a comprehensive and systematic study and evaluation of market trading activities, aimed at understanding market dynamics, identifying trading opportunities, assessing risks, and helping investors or traders make informed decisions. By analyzing various aspects such as trading data, market trends, and participant behavior, it seeks to extract valuable information and predict price movements, etc.

Main Types of Transaction Analysis

- Fundamental Analysis: Primarily studies the macroeconomic factors, industry conditions, and company finances that affect asset value. At the macro level, it focuses on economic growth, interest rates, inflation, etc.; at the industry level, it analyzes industry competition patterns, development trends, etc.; at the company level, it studies financial statements and operational management to assess the intrinsic value of assets and determine if they are undervalued or overvalued.
- Technical Analysis: Based on historical trading data, such as price and trading volume, it uses charts and technical indicators to predict future price movements. Common technical analysis charts include candlestick charts and line charts, while technical indicators include moving averages and relative strength index (RSI), which help determine market trends, buy and sell signals, etc., through the analysis of these charts and indicators.
- Sentiment Analysis: Focuses on the psychological and emotional states of market participants, such as fear and greed. By analyzing investor sentiment indicators and market popularity, it assesses whether the market is overheated or overly cold. For example, when most investors in the market are extremely optimistic, it may indicate that the market is nearing a peak; conversely, extreme pessimism may suggest that it is close to a bottom.

Based on the provided BTC/USDT trading data, the current BTC price is 83,042.21 USDT, with an increase of 7.33%. From a technical indicator perspective, the EMA (Exponential Moving Average) shows a short-term EMA (7) of 82,125.16, which is lower than the mid-term EMA (25) of 83,124.92 and the long-term EMA (100) of 87,245.01, indicating significant price fluctuations in the short term, but the long-term trend may still be weak.

The MACD indicator shows a DIF of -1,127.37, a DEA of -1,541.21, and a MACD value of 413.84, suggesting that the market may be in an adjustment phase, but the positive MACD indicates potential rebound signs in the short term. The RSI indicator (Relative Strength Index) shows an RSI (10) of 52.68, an RSI (30) of 46.12, and an RSI (60) of 45.63, indicating that the market is in a neutral zone with no clear overbought or oversold signals.

The KDJ indicator shows a K value of 78.19, a D value of 63.08, and a J value of 108.43, indicating that the market may have upward momentum in the short term, but the high J value necessitates caution regarding potential pullback risks. Overall, BTC may have rebound opportunities in the short term, but the long-term trend should be observed cautiously.

#交易分析101 Trading Volume Analysis: A Barometer of Market Sentiment
Trading volume reflects market participation and is an important basis for trading analysis on Binance. An increase in price accompanied by a surge in volume usually indicates a strong trend; if the volume decreases while the price rises, it may lack support. Below the Binance chart, the trading volume is displayed as a histogram, with green representing buy orders dominating and red representing sell orders dominating. Beginners should pay attention to unusual volume surges, as they may indicate an impending significant market movement, but be cautious of false breakouts.

#交易分析101 Market Sentiment Analysis: The Impact of News and Social Media
The crypto market is driven by sentiment, and Binance trading analysis cannot do without external information. Major news (such as regulatory policies and Bitcoin halving) often triggers dramatic price changes. Platform X is a great place to get real-time information, following influential voices and changes in market sentiment. For example, a tweet from Musk could drive up Dogecoin. Beginners should learn to filter information to avoid being misled by noise.

#交易分析101 has come to an end, a piece of advice for newcomers: do not touch cryptocurrency contracts
1. What is a contract?
Simply put, it's a bet with the platform on the future price fluctuations of coins. For example, if Bitcoin is $10,000 now:
If you are bullish, sign a "Call Option", betting that it will rise and buy at $10,000
If you are bearish, sign a "Put Option", betting that it will fall and sell at $10,000
2. Common types
Futures Contract: A bet with a fixed expiration date
Perpetual Contract: An indefinite bet, with a daily "table fee"
Options Contract: Pay a deposit to gain options, not mandatorily enforceable
3. Dangerous mechanisms
Leverage magnifier: Using 10x leverage, a 10% price fluctuation results in a total loss of capital
Liquidation alarm: Forced liquidation when account balance is insufficient
24-hour casino: Trading year-round, emotions can easily get out of control
4. Fatal risks
95% of people end up losing money (source: CCID Research Institute)
Platforms may misappropriate margin (referencing the FTX collapse)
Extreme market conditions can lead to negative balances (liquidation risk)
Daily holding fees must be paid (annual cost of perpetual contracts exceeds 10%)
5. Safe alternatives
Regularly buy coins: Invest a fixed amount weekly to diversify risk
Automated trading: Set price ranges for automatic buying and selling (grid strategy)
Wealth management mining: Store coins on a secure platform to earn interest (5-15% annualized)
6. Survival rules for beginners
Always invest with spare money, do not borrow
Contract funds should not exceed 5% of total funds
Before each trade, ask yourself: can I bear the total loss?
Practice with a simulation account for six months before going live
Remember: Contracts are tools for professional players, 90% of beginners will lose all within three months. Regular investment is the best choice for ordinary people; it's recommended to start practicing with 100 yuan per week.
#US stocks plummet #MtGox wallet dynamics #ETH巨鲸清算

#交易分析101 , but next there will be the Federal Reserve meeting, and the key is still to look at Powell's attitude in his speech.
Let's talk about our situation, there are a few core data points:
First, the deficit rate is set at 4%. Previously, we were mainly at 3, marking the first time in recent years that the deficit rate has been raised. To clarify, this indicates that the government is willing to take responsibility, meaning they are willing to inject liquidity.
Second, the inflation data is set at 2%. Previously it was set at 3, but now the CPI every month is around 0.something, making the target of 3 too distant.
This adjustment of the target is a positive sign, indicating that the leadership has recognized the issues and is facing them. It's a very significant positive.
Third, issuing 1.3 trillion in special national bonds, which is slightly less than market expectations, but there is a point worth noting: this time they issued 500 billion to support state-owned large commercial banks in replenishing their capital.
There are rumors of rescuing the banks, and this wave has landed. With such large profits every day, why do they still need to issue bonds? Because although banks are making money, they are also burdened with the huge risk of real estate. Rescuing real estate is too difficult, so it is better to support the banks as a backup.

I personally prefer to look at technical charts first when trading, and then look at the fundamentals. However, no matter how good the chart looks, I won't buy in if the fundamentals are poor. Conversely, if the fundamentals are good but the price movement is bad, I would still buy in. I consider myself a fundamental-focused trader. I believe that fundamentals are still very important. Although there are some coins that can be infinitely pumped, they can also drop quickly without a solid foundation. Essentially, it's just about catching people and then taking their money. However, in the trading market, it's really about profits. I am currently at a loss, yes, at a loss, so I can't really say what's right or wrong. I can only say that I am accustomed to buying in this way. My methods need improvement, and I hope that each failure is a nutrient for future success.

#交易分析101 'Shen Gong Bao' Quotes: The road in the human world is full of ghosts, yet not a single ghost comes to harm. There are people everywhere in the human world, who isn't scheming against others? When a person doesn't encounter trouble, they can't distinguish between good and bad. So don't think you have many friends. When the day comes that you are in trouble, only then will you know who is a person and who is a ghost.

#交易分析101 🔸Fundamental Analysis (FA) evaluates the true value of an asset by analyzing the project's fundamentals, adoption, partnerships, and macroeconomic trends.
🔸Technical Analysis (TA) uses price trends, trading volume, and indicators to predict market movements. Identifying classic chart patterns such as head and shoulders, double tops/double bottoms, and triangles can help traders act in a timely manner.
Do you rely more on fundamental analysis, technical analysis, or a combination of both?

Currently, all indicators are on the brink of collapse. Those with spare cash can try to buy at the bottom, but set a stop-loss. Personally, I am completely pessimistic about future trends. Trump is intentionally popping the stock market bubble, aiming to make America great again. He wants to bring it to the brink of death before revival, but it cannot be ruled out that there will be another short squeeze to lure in more buyers.

#交易分析101 This involves a cognitive bias where many investors believe it will play out like last time, with a replica market trend, which is actually a form of cognitive distortion. Why do I say this?

Because subjective and objective factors have changed.

Subjectively, the audience of the market has changed; it is no longer just speculation in the secondary market. The audience is starting to develop towards the primary market, and there are more smart people in the market whose actions lead to a stronger wealth effect for them. They will undoubtedly focus on new investments rather than old ones. The last replica market will not be taken seriously by them.

Objectively, there are more investment targets available in the market, and these targets, compared to replicas, are more suitable for speculation and have lower entry barriers. There is no selling pressure similar to that of replicas, in other words, the speed of making money is faster.

Considering the above factors, it can be concluded that expecting a replica season is highly likely to be like trying to catch a sword thrown into the river.

#交易分析101 I have been floating in the cryptocurrency world for many years, especially proficient in BTC trading. From the perspective of trading analysis 101, the current technical aspect of BTC shows a bullish moving average arrangement, and the MACD has a golden cross that is rising; fundamentally, global economic fluctuations have led to an influx of safe-haven funds. Moreover, market sentiment is positive, and trading volume has significantly increased. Overall, the potential for BTC to rise further is great. This moment is an excellent entry point, immediately go long on $BTC.

#交易分析101 Trading Analysis 101 is an introductory course for beginners. It covers the basics of trading, such as market structure, trading tools, and fundamental strategies. Through learning, investors can understand price movements and master technical analysis indicators such as moving averages and MACD. At the same time, the course will also cover risk management, emphasizing stop-loss and position control. This lays a foundation for subsequent in-depth study, helping newcomers avoid blind trading and gradually move towards a path of steady profitability.

Below are the current support levels for BTC based on #交易分析101 :

- **Key Support Level**: The area around $82,000 is currently the key support level that the market is focusing on. The VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) for 2024 is between $82,000 and $83,000, considered the core support for a bull market. If the BTC price falls below this area, it could disrupt the current trend and further decline to around $77,000 to $72,000.

- **Other Support Levels**: The range between the 50-day moving average (around $77,500) and the 200-day moving average (around $72,000) is also an important support area. If the price can hold above $78,000, it may form a W-bottom pattern, laying the foundation for a subsequent rebound. Additionally, based on historical data, the area around $70,000 to $72,000 is also a dense trading zone on the left side, serving as the support level for the 200-day moving average and an important retracement level after the rebound from the low in August 2024.

It's important to note that support levels are not absolute bottoms for prices but are areas where prices may encounter strong buying support during a decline. Prices may rebound in these areas, but that does not guarantee a rebound. Market conditions change rapidly, and price movements will be affected by various factors including macroeconomic conditions, changes in policies and regulations, and fluctuations in market sentiment.

#交易分析101 ETH Trading Analysis Framework and Key Factors (March 11, 2025)

1. Technical Analysis

Short-term Trend Judgment

Support and Resistance: Currently, the ETH hourly chart moving average resistance is around $2030, while the daily level key support is in the range of $1750-$1820. If it breaks below, it may further test the $1600 area. The latest market situation on March 11 shows that ETH rebounded from below $2000 to around $1850, but if it cannot break through the $2100 resistance in the short term, it may pull back again.

Candlestick Pattern: The daily chart shows consecutive bearish candles and the price is below the moving average, with the MACD's dead cross continuing, indicating a bearish dominance; however, a long lower shadow appeared on the daily chart near $1750, suggesting the effectiveness of short-term support.

Volatility and Cycle Patterns

Historical data shows that ETH has experienced declines of over 60% in bear markets (such as -82.7% in 2018 and -68.3% in 2022), but may later rebound by more than 170%. Recently, the options market has been highly volatile, with a trader achieving a tenfold account increase in one month through ETH put options in February; near-month contracts (such as those expiring in 10 days) have gains of 180%-325%.

2. Fundamental Driving Factors

Market Structure Contradiction

Capital Diversion: BTC spot ETFs attract significant institutional funds (such as BlackRock), while the narrative of ETH’s “complex application scenarios” has decreased in attractiveness, resulting in a capital siphoning effect.

Layer 2 Impact: L2 networks like Arbitrum and Optimism reduce ETH mainnet gas consumption, weakening the effects of the deflationary mechanism (current burn rates cannot cover new issuance).

Supply and Demand Imbalance

Staking Unlock Pressure: A significant amount of staked ETH (especially through protocols like Lido) has entered the circulating market after the merger, compounded by rumors of a 400,000 ETH sell-off triggered by a North Korean hacker incident, intensifying selling pressure.

Institutional Behavior Divergence $ETH