#交易分析101 ETH Trading Analysis Framework and Key Factors (March 11, 2025)

1. Technical Analysis

Short-term Trend Judgment

Support and Resistance: Currently, the ETH hourly chart moving average resistance is around $2030, while the daily level key support is in the range of $1750-$1820. If it breaks below, it may further test the $1600 area. The latest market situation on March 11 shows that ETH rebounded from below $2000 to around $1850, but if it cannot break through the $2100 resistance in the short term, it may pull back again.

Candlestick Pattern: The daily chart shows consecutive bearish candles and the price is below the moving average, with the MACD's dead cross continuing, indicating a bearish dominance; however, a long lower shadow appeared on the daily chart near $1750, suggesting the effectiveness of short-term support.

Volatility and Cycle Patterns

Historical data shows that ETH has experienced declines of over 60% in bear markets (such as -82.7% in 2018 and -68.3% in 2022), but may later rebound by more than 170%. Recently, the options market has been highly volatile, with a trader achieving a tenfold account increase in one month through ETH put options in February; near-month contracts (such as those expiring in 10 days) have gains of 180%-325%.

2. Fundamental Driving Factors

Market Structure Contradiction

Capital Diversion: BTC spot ETFs attract significant institutional funds (such as BlackRock), while the narrative of ETH’s “complex application scenarios” has decreased in attractiveness, resulting in a capital siphoning effect.

Layer 2 Impact: L2 networks like Arbitrum and Optimism reduce ETH mainnet gas consumption, weakening the effects of the deflationary mechanism (current burn rates cannot cover new issuance).

Supply and Demand Imbalance

Staking Unlock Pressure: A significant amount of staked ETH (especially through protocols like Lido) has entered the circulating market after the merger, compounded by rumors of a 400,000 ETH sell-off triggered by a North Korean hacker incident, intensifying selling pressure.

Institutional Behavior Divergence $ETH