#交易分析101
I. Two Pillars of Trade Analysis
1. Fundamental Analysis
Definition: Assessing the intrinsic value of an asset to determine whether its price is overvalued or undervalued.
- **Core Elements**:
Macroeconomic Factors: GDP, interest rates, inflation, employment data, etc.
Industry Trends: Supply and demand relationships, policy impacts, technological innovations.
Company Level: Financial statements (income statement, balance sheet, cash flow statement), price-to-earnings ratio (P/E), price-to-book ratio (P/B), etc.
Application Scenarios: Long-term investment, value investing.
Example: If a company’s P/E is below the industry average and profit growth is stable, it may be undervalued.
2. Technical Analysis
Definition: Predicting future trends through historical price and volume data.
- **Three Assumptions**:
- Prices reflect all information.
- Prices move in trends.
- History tends to repeat itself.
Core Tools:
Candlestick Chart: Identifying patterns (e.g., head and shoulders, double bottom).
Technical Indicators: Moving Average (MA), Relative Strength Index (RSI), MACD.
Support/Resistance Levels: Psychological battles of buying and selling in key price areas.
Application Scenarios: Short-term trading, swing trading.
II. Detailed Explanation of Key Tools in Technical Analysis
1. Candlestick Patterns and Signals
Bullish Signals: Hammer, Morning Star, Breakout Resistance.
Bearish Signals: Shooting Star, Evening Star, Break Support.
Example: The appearance of an “Engulfing Pattern” on the Bitcoin daily chart may indicate a trend reversal.
