gold

Gold Weakens Following Friday's Nonfarm Payroll Disappointment
Gold did not pass the bullish test.
Overview of Friday's Events:
The US Nonfarm Payrolls came in at 29,000, significantly lower than the expected 90,000. Revisions showed August's figures adjusted from 162,000 to 133,000 and July's numbers were revised down to -10,000. The unemployment rate increased from 4.1% to 4.2%.
Initially, this data should have been bullish for gold, and it was for approximately one hour.
Price Trends:
- Spot gold spiked by 1% to $4,259, then fell to $4,140.06, marking a decline of 0.9%.
- Futures settled at $4,162.30, down by 1%.
- Weekly performance showed a decline of 3.3% for spot gold and 3.7% for futures, marking the second consecutive weekly loss.
- The weekly low reached $4,110.95, with ongoing challenges to maintain $4,200.
Reasons for Weakness in Gold:
1. Yield Shock: 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields reached their highest levels since 2002 at 5.285%. Higher yields create a greater opportunity cost for gold, which does not yield returns.
2. Strength of the Dollar: The DXY index is near two-month highs, making gold more expensive for international buyers.
3. Fed's Hawkish Stance: The odds for a rate hike in October dropped from 64.2% to 22.7%, while the hold odds remain at 82.8%. However, a December hike is still being priced in at 87%, as the market perceives one disappointing NFP report does not indicate a shift from the Fed.
4. Geopolitical Factors: Gold prices have decreased by 20% since the US-Iran conflict began in February, and ongoing warfare is contributing to sustained higher rates.
Future Outlook:
There is a growing bearish sentiment on Wall Street, and Main Street is moving away from a bullish outlook as metals test support levels. Central banks continue to make purchases, with China increasing reserves by 20 tons in August and Ghana's reserves rising from 24.4 tons to 25.2 tons; however, this activity is insufficient to counteract yield pressures.
Key Price Levels: Support is noted at $4,110 to $4,133, and resistance is observed between $4,200 and $4,280.
The question remains whether gold will find a bottom before the FOMC meeting on October 27-28.
$XAU #GOLD #NFP #Fed #PreciousMetals

Spot gold traded around $4,131.61/oz on Oct. 5, down roughly 0.3%, while the U.S. dollar gained about 0.6%. December U.S. gold futures were near $4,159.30.
Markets now price only around an 18% chance of another Fed rate hike in October after weaker U.S. employment data, limiting some of the pressure on gold.
INTERPRETATION: $XAUT is caught between a stronger dollar and softer Fed expectations.
🟢 Bull: Gold reclaims $4,160 and buyers regain momentum.
🔴 Bear: A clean break below $4,100 could strengthen downside pressure.
Does gold reclaim $4,160 next, or is another drop below $4,100 coming?
$XAUT
#GOLD #XAUUSD

​Today, the market received economic data that directly shifted expectations regarding US interest rates. The payroll report showed the creation of only 29,000 jobs in September, falling significantly short of the expected ~90,000. Unemployment rose to 4.2%, monthly wage growth stagnated at just 0.1%, and previous months' figures were revised downwards. In short, the American labor market displayed greater weakness than anticipated.
​The market reaction was almost immediate. The probability of another rate hike by the Federal Reserve fell from approximately 25% to 13%, Treasury yields declined, and the US dollar weakened. This shift created a favorable environment for liquidity-sensitive assets, explaining why Bitcoin, gold, and silver surged almost simultaneously.
​Bitcoin broke through $86,000, approaching $87,000. Gold crossed $4,200, hitting the $4,226 region. Silver moved up from $60.80 to reach $61.90 within just a few candles. Furthermore, Bitcoin's open interest grew by roughly $2.3 billion in recent days, indicating a substantial increase in exposure across derivatives markets.
​Looking strictly at the estimated repricing of global gold and silver stockpiles during this movement, the combined market value gained nearly $400 billion in a matter of minutes. While this does not mean $400 billion of actual capital flowed into these markets, it underscores the massive revaluation driven by changing expectations around interest rates, the US dollar, and global liquidity.#Silver #BTC #GOLD