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German government bonds recovered earlier losses after U.S. data largely matched expectations, with core CPI rising slightly less than expected month on month. According to Jin10, the move brought Bunds back to their pre-release trajectory after they had fallen when a spike in oil prices weighed on rates markets.

The earlier oil move followed remarks by U.S. President Donald Trump, who said peace talks with Iran were taking too long and that Iran would have to “pay a price.” German bond prices, which had slipped on the oil jump, later recouped most of the decline and were roughly flat.

Higher-beta European rates markets remained pressured by softer risk assets. Ten-year French government bond futures fell by more than 6 basis points, while ten-year Italian government bond futures dropped by more than 12 basis points.

More than $2.5B in realized losses and $16B still underwater reveal a market approaching psychological exhaustion.

Since price began falling in early June, Binance has recorded a clear increase in BTC inflows from wallets holding 100–1,000 BTC and 1,000–10,000 BTC.

These transfers do not automatically mean every coin was sold, but during a volatility shock, they represent a sharp rise in immediately available supply on the market’s deepest trading venue.

The pressure is already visible in realized behavior.

Short- and long-term whales have collectively locked in more than $2.5B in losses, confirming that large holders have not merely absorbed the decline, they have actively contributed to it.

When volatility accelerates, whales remain one of the few cohorts capable of turning individual risk reduction into market-wide selling pressure.

The most fragile group is now short-term whales.

They are sitting on roughly $16B in unrealized losses, despite having briefly returned to unrealized profit for around ten days in early May. That failed recovery matters psychologically. After seeing positions move back into profit and then collapse deeply underwater, this cohort is likely exhausted, defensive, and increasingly willing to sell into small rebounds simply to reduce exposure or exit near breakeven.

Taken together, these three readings describe the stress profile of a late-stage bear market: capitulating whales, distribution into weakness, and a fragile short-term cohort with its finger on the trigger.

The volatility is doing precisely what it tends to do at this phase, expelling weak hands from the market. And the same flush that punishes late buyers is often what resets price to the level patient capital has been waiting for.

Written by MorenoDV_

Bitcoin continues to struggle. Last week closed with a brutal -14% candle. Saylor sold, gold is dumping, stocks are down, and war headlines are making a comeback.
It's been one of those weeks where it feels like the world is falling apart.
Anyway, let's talk about what's really going on.
BTCUSD (Monthly)

In our last few weekly updates, we talked about this monthly underside retest. Since then, price has gone on to make a new low.
So what can we expect next on the monthly?
Honestly, when price is in a downtrend, it's an open floor. Price can go as deep as it wants.
"Bull market can break all of your resistances"
"Bear market can break all of your supports"
As long as the monthly remains bearish and we don't see any structure shift, the floor stays open. I don't want to throw out random price targets based on the monthly chart because these moves can take months to play out, and let's be real, most people don't have the patience for that.
So for now, I'll keep it simple:
It's an open floor until we see a monthly structure shift.
Where will monthly shift its structure? Above that $82k ish high, too far right? Yes this is why i said monthly chart take months to play out.
BTCUSD (Weekly)
Before we look at the current picture, let me remind you what we discussed last time about the weekly chart.

Last week, we discussed that if BTC lost $70k, we would likely see a retest of $60k.
Well, here we are. Price dipped below $60k last week and swept the lows.
Now let's talk about the current picture.
BTCUSD Line chart (Weekly)
In all of my Bitcoin updates, there's one thing I've kept repeating:
Even when Bitcoin was moving higher, the weekly chart was still in a downtrend.
As long as that downtrend remained intact, the odds of a lower high were always on the table. A few green candles don't change the structure.
And that's exactly why I've been cautious despite the short-term strength.

I sometimes use the line chart to get early confirmation of the trend. It helps me stay ahead of traders who use candlesticks and wait for a candle close above or below a wick.
Bitcoin has now made a lower low on the line chart. (Not on the candlestick chart yet.)
A lower low means the bearish trend remains intact.
As long as the trend remains bearish, bears can continue to dominate the market.
BTCUSD (Weekly)

Bitcoin closed the week below the $65,800 level.
If you zoom out on the chart, you'll notice that there wasn't a single weekly candle that closed below $65,800 before this. That's what makes this weekly close important.
To me, this shows that the bulls are still weak, and there's no real reason to be bullish on BTC based on the weekly chart right now until bulls can reclaim at least this zone on the weekly closing basis.
The Bullish Hope
Besides every timeframe looking bearish, there is still one small hope for the bulls and that’s where Bitcoin can still surprise all the bears.

We have a $60k sweep, and I think this is really the last hope for bulls to step in and push BTC back up.
The weekly SFP has had a pretty significant impact on Bitcoin every time it shows up. I’ve marked the last few SFPs on the chart, and you can see how price reacted after each one.
$60k is going to be a very crucial zone for bulls. As long as bulls can hold it, there is still potential for a relief bounce. Bitcoin is already up +3000 from the $60k low, which shows how important that zone is.
Personally, I don’t rely on hopes, I prefer confirmations over a single candle. I’m only adding this “bullish hope” in case someone is still looking for it.

I shared the potential $60k sweep alert when price was trading around $60k and now it's $63k.
BTCUSD (Daily)

$65k-67k is where Bitcoin spent more time on the daily chart. So many buyers are stuck there and price broke this zone with a really high volume. It is also aligning with the $65k's weekly zone we discussed above. Bears will likely want to defend this zone.
As long as price is trading below this zone i don't have a reason to be bullish. i'd say as long as price is trading below this zone bears can Break under $60k zone.
Any downside or upside target for this week?
No downside target for this week really. As long as $60k stands there, I'd rather be neutral than Bullish or bearish.
Not Bullish because all timeframes are bearish
Not Bearish because $60k is the only key zone on chart.
I have said everything based on every chart. i think you guys are good enough to understand it.

That’s pretty much it for this Bitcoin update.
Let me know what do you think, your opinions are Always welcome