Mr 0cean

sending oil prices higher—and it completely disrupts the macro framework I've been tracking.
For weeks, I've been following what I call the "inflation decompression sequence":
Falling oil prices → Softer CPI → A more dovish Warsh narrative → Lower rate expectations.
By early last week, roughly 70% of that sequence had already played out.
• The Iran MOU had been signed.
• Oil had fallen from $93 to the $75–80 range.
• Warsh signaled at the ECB conference that inflation risks had eased.
• Nonfarm payrolls came in at just 57,000.
Everything appeared to be moving in the right direction.
Then yesterday happened.
This is already the fourth or fifth Strait of Hormuz flare-up this year. I discussed this risk back on June 19–20. Shortly after the previous agreement, Israel launched strikes in Lebanon. This time, Iran itself is reportedly targeting merchant vessels.
The key question now is whether this is an isolated event—or the beginning of another sustained escalation.
If tensions continue to rise, oil prices are likely to rebound over the coming weeks. That would mean the recent decline in energy prices reflected in the June CPI could prove temporary rather than the start of a lasting disinflation trend.
In that scenario, even if June CPI comes in soft, Warsh may still be reluctant to shift his stance ahead of the July 28 FOMC, because July's oil-price data would already be pointing back toward higher inflation.
As a result, I'm lowering my confidence that the inflation decompression sequence has fully played out.
For now, I'm waiting to see how this latest escalation develops. Until we get more clarity, the upcoming June CPI report becomes even more important—and even more difficult to interpret.
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#USLaunchesNewStrikesAgainstIran #USStrikesIranRevokesOilWaiver #OilRises5%OnUSIranTensions

revoked Iran's license to sell oil in the same hour, and let the insurance market finish the job.
That is not one act of retaliation. It is three weapons fired at once. Bombs on Bandar Abbas, a sanctions guillotine on Iran's oil revenue, and a war-risk premium that just made the strait unaffordable to cross.
And within few hours, Iran/IRGC hit back, claiming strikes on 85 US-linked sites in the gulf. The ceasefire is clearly gone.
Read the sequence, because a doctrine is being born in it. Ten days ago the US struck Iran's strait arsenal and stopped.
Tonight it hit more than 80+ targets and over 60 Revolutionary Guard / IRGC boats, air defenses, radar, missile and drone sites across Bandar Abbas, Qeshm, and Sirik, while the Treasury killed the exact oil waiver the peace deal had granted six weeks ago. The gun and the wallet, fired in the same minute.
And underneath both sits the quiet third weapon. War-risk insurance on a supertanker through Hormuz can jump toward $1 to $5 million per crossing, several times normal. Washington does not need to sink the next ship. The premium closes the lane for it nicely!
That synchronization is the message. Kinetic, financial, and actuarial force, delivered as one blow, so Iran cannot absorb the missile while exploiting the loophole. And it lands in the middle of Khamenei's funeral week, hours before the US defense chief flies to sit with Netanyahu.
Three vessels / tankers were the trigger. The answer was a new grammar of war, where the strike, the sanction, and the insurance premium stop being separate tools and become a single weapon aimed at a fifth of the world's energy.
Iran learned to close a strait with missiles and premiums. Tonight it learned Uncle Sam can answer in the same language, and hit back harder. Yes!
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#USLaunchesNewStrikesAgainstIran #OilRises5%OnUSIranTensions #USStrikesIranRevokesOilWaiver #GoldSlumps #BitcoinTradesLower

Jay D. Wans là ứng viên tổng thống liên danh Cộng hòa chính trong năm 2028. Đây là thông tin được Axios đưa tin. Wans được 62% đảng viên Cộng hòa ủng hộ, còn Rubio - 51%. Wans đang dẫn Trump với khoảng 3% và dẫn đầu trong các cuộc thăm dò toàn quốc. Theo tờ báo, Rubio không muốn ra tranh cử và cũng không có đủ nguồn lực cho chiến dịch.
Trump đã ngừng so sánh và giờ nói: "Jay D. trông thật tuyệt, đúng không?" Đặt cược đã được thực hiện.
Wans không chỉ là một phó tổng thống. Anh ta là sự tiếp nối của Trumpism. Trẻ hơn, cứng rắn hơn, tập trung vào đúng nhóm cử tri cốt lõi đó, nhưng ít mang theo hơn gánh nặng của các bê bối. Rubio là một lựa chọn thay thế.