The traditional Bitcoin 4-year cycle has, for the first time in 14 years, failed to repeat. The clearest signal is simple: •The year following the 2024 halving did not continue higher •2025 closed lower instead, something unseen in prior post halving periods That deviation matters because earlier cycles depended on a very specific market setup. In previous cycles: •Halving removed a large amount of new supply •Market depth was relatively thin •Even moderate demand could move price meaningfully That structure no longer exists. By the 2024 halving: •Daily issuance dropped by only a few hundred BTC •Overall market liquidity had grown exponentially •Macro forces began to outweigh issuance effects Today, Bitcoin responds more directly to: •Dollar liquidity and real interest rates •ETF inflows and outflows •Institutional positioning and capital allocation •Broader economic expansions and slowdowns Supply reduction still plays a role, but it no longer dictates direction on its own. Bitcoin has shifted from a supply shock led market to a liquidity sensitive market. That shift explains why time based cycle expectations failed in 2025, without implying structural weakness in the asset.
The traditional Bitcoin 4-year cycle has, for the first time in 14 years, failed to repeat.
The clearest signal is simple: •The year following the 2024 halving did not continue higher •2025 closed lower instead, something unseen in prior post halving periods
That deviation matters because earlier cycles depended on a very specific market setup.
In previous cycles: •Halving removed a large amount of new supply •Market depth was relatively thin •Even moderate demand could move price meaningfully That structure no longer exists.
By the 2024 halving: •Daily issuance dropped by only a few hundred BTC •Overall market liquidity had grown exponentially •Macro forces began to outweigh issuance effects
Today, Bitcoin responds more directly to: •Dollar liquidity and real interest rates •ETF inflows and outflows •Institutional positioning and capital allocation •Broader economic expansions and slowdowns
Supply reduction still plays a role, but it no longer dictates direction on its own.
Bitcoin has shifted from a supply shock led market to a liquidity sensitive market.
That shift explains why time based cycle expectations failed in 2025, without implying structural weakness in the asset.$BTC $ETH
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