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$ETH : Breakout or Bull Trap? Why 3050 Is a Risky Long Entry】
ETH 強勢突破 3000,看似重新進入多頭格局,但從資金面與技術面觀察,短線仍需警惕「主力拉高 → 散戶追高 → 高位洗盤」的典型結構。
ETH’s breakout above 3000 looks bullish, but both technical and liquidity signals suggest a potential short-term bull trap driven by whale distribution and retail FOMO.
📊 市場兩大警訊 Two Major Warning Signs:
1. 獲利盤壓力增強 Profit-taking pressure
自 2600 至 3050,漲幅超 17%,短線獲利賣壓自然提升。此時追高,風險大於報酬。
Price surged from 2600 to 3050 (+17%). Short-term sellers are naturally increasing — chasing here is high risk.
2. 情緒過熱, FOMO 升溫 Retail FOMO at extremes
散戶情緒極度一致看多,歷史上常伴隨短期修正。 When sentiment becomes one-sidedly bullish, markets tend to correct.
📈 昨日操作回顧 Yesterday’s Play Recap
老弟昨日指出 2880–2900 區間為低接點。
Only SwingBro identified 2880–2900 as the high-probability long zone.
最低回踩 2887 後快速反彈至 3057,多頭單筆利潤達 150 點。
ETH bottomed at 2887 and rallied sharply to 3057 (+150 pts).
夜盤資金異動+機構吸籌訊號,是反彈主因。
Night-session inflows + institutional accumulation triggered the move.
⚔️ 當前行情:多空雙向風險並存 Market Outlook: Bull–Bear Clash Incoming
技術面 Technical signals:
日線 EMA 雖金叉,但量縮 → 可能是假突破EMA bullish crossover but weak volume → possible fake breakout套牢區:3080–3130 需消化Heavy resistance at 3080–3130 (previous supply zone)
支撐:2950 → 2880 Support: 2950 → 2880
壓力:3130 → 3250 Resistance: 3130 → 3250
資金面 Liquidity clues:
ETH ETF 流入 9657 萬美元ETH ETF saw +$96.5M inflows但交易所增加 12 萬枚 ETH → 機構有調節動作But exchange reserves increased by 120K ETH → potential distribution巨鯨成本:2900–2950,跌破恐引發拋售Whale cost basis at 2900–2950; breakdown may trigger panic selling
🎯 操作策略 Strategy
多頭 Long Setup:
2950–2980 佈局 Entry: 2950–2980止損:2870 SL: 2870止盈:3080 / 3130 TP: 3080 / 3130
空頭 Short Setup:
3150–3180(上攻無力時佈局) Entry: 3150–3180 (rejection/sideways = signal)
止損:3150 SL:3150止盈:3000 TP:3000
🔍 結論 Conclusion
ETH 可能在 2900–3130 形成震盪區。ETH is likely forming a 2900–3130 range
洗盤後仍有機會啟動下一波攻勢。
A classic washout zone before the next expansion move.
震盪期間避免追漲殺跌,策略性佈局為主。
Avoid chasing; position smartly.
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