賢仔

Seeing the road but not walking it: Discussing the human predicament and rational breakthrough in trading
On Buffett's 'Simplicity' and the Public's 'Complexity'
I. The Cost of Going with the Flow: The Collective Loss in the Trading Market
In the financial market, 'going with the flow' is the instinctive choice for most. Retail investors are keen on chasing analysts' opinions, copying experts' strategies, and even regard Buffett's investment philosophy as a standard, yet few realize: the essence of the market is 'error correction', while the essence of human nature is 'conformity'.
When traders blindly follow others, they often fall into a threefold dilemma:

Trump's 'Leek Cutting' Technique in the Cryptocurrency Market: Fluctuations and Trust Collapse Under the Political Scythe
As a businessman-turned-president, Trump has turned the cryptocurrency market into the 'main battlefield' for family wealth harvesting since he took office in 2025. From issuing air coins to manipulating policy information, his combination of political power and asymmetric market information has not only led to heavy losses for retail investors but has also severely undermined the trust foundation of the crypto market.
I. ​The Precise Harvesting of 'Trump Coin': Insider Trading and Family Cashing Out
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Issuance of Air Coins and Token Monopoly

To integrate the wisdom of (The Art of War) into crypto contract trading, one must approach from multiple dimensions such as strategic thinking, risk management, and behavioral guidelines. Based on interpretations from various sources, the following is a concrete application framework:
1. Strategic Planning: Build a trading system based on 'Dao, Tian, Di, Jiang, Fa'
Dao (Macro Trends and Cognition)
Trend Judgement: Choose fields that align with the long-term trends of the blockchain industry (such as Layer2, DeFi), and avoid chasing short-term bubbles. It is essential to clarify 'whether contract trading matches one’s risk tolerance'.
Cognitive Improvement: Establish basic understanding of market cycles and technical indicators to avoid blindly following trends. As (The Art of War) emphasizes, 'win first and then fight'; one must have technical analysis skills before entering the market.

230,000 liquidations across the network amounting to 820 million USD! Latest data + in-depth analysis, understand this wave of market movement and you can harvest profits!

1. Astonishing Reversal: Trump's 'Call' vs. Tariff Impact, Bitcoin Experiences Roller Coaster Market
Timeline:
On the night of March 2, Trump announced on Truth Social that the US will create a strategic reserve for cryptocurrencies, specifically naming Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Ripple (XRP), Solana (SOL), and Cardano (ADA). Following this news, Bitcoin soared over 11% within an hour, breaking 93,000 USD, while XRP and ADA surged 70% in a single day.

The philosophy of life from quantitative change to qualitative change, the success code in natural laws
In the summer pond, lotus flowers bloom one after another, yet few notice the secret of their growth — on the first day, a few open, then each day they expand at double the rate, until the 30th day when the entire pond is covered. Remarkably, during the seemingly long accumulation process, by the 29th day, half of the pond is covered, and the final day’s explosion completes the other half of the bloom. This phenomenon is known as the 'Lotus Flower Law', which reveals the laws of quantitative and qualitative change in nature and serves as a profound metaphor for the struggles of life.

Based on the analysis of existing data, the historical price fluctuation pattern of Bitcoin shows the following characteristics in its weekly rise and fall distribution:
I. Periods with the highest probability and magnitude of increase
Monday to Wednesday (institutional active period)
Traditional financial institutions (such as Bitcoin ETFs) typically conduct subscriptions and redemptions on weekdays, often leading to a catch-up rally on Mondays (institutional funds entering the market). For example, in November 2024, Bitcoin saw a single-day increase exceeding 8% on several Mondays.
Tuesdays and Wednesdays are prone to stair-step rebounds as the market digests macro policies (such as Federal Reserve interest rate decisions) and technical repair demands. In October 2023, Bitcoin experienced a single-day increase exceeding 5% on Wednesdays for three consecutive weeks.

I. Investment Philosophy: The Integration of Philosophy and Practice
George Soros's investment philosophy centers on the 'theory of reflexivity,' combining macroeconomic analysis, contrarian thinking, and dynamic risk management, forming a system that subverts traditional financial understanding.

Theory of reflexivity: The 'two-way distortion' between the market and participants

Soros believes there is an interaction between cognitive biases of market participants and price fluctuations: investors' expectations drive prices away from fundamentals, and price changes further reinforce biases, creating a self-reinforcing cycle. For example, in 1992, when he targeted the pound, he exploited the market's overestimation of the UK’s economic strength, accelerating the pound's collapse through massive shorting. This theory challenges the traditional economic assumption of 'market equilibrium' and reveals the irrationality and instability of financial markets.