Unook

#空投发现指南 Ecological Contribution Airdrop**
- **Case**: Babylon Network requires users to stake Bitcoin or participate in GitHub open source contributions; Abstract rewards active users through daily use and an XP points system.
- **Strategy**: Long-term participation in governance voting (such as Jupiter round two airdrop), providing liquidity, or contributing to tool development.

#空投操作全指南 Market Volatility Anomaly
CoinMetrics data shows that Bitcoin's 90-day volatility has long remained in the range of 60%-80%, far exceeding the S&P 500 index's 15%-20%. This high volatility includes both a premium space against traditional markets and implies excessive fluctuations caused by leveraged liquidations. During the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle in 2022, the correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq index dropped sharply from 0.8 to -0.3, revealing its property transformation at different monetary policy stages.

#空投防骗手册 Regulatory Arbitrage Space Compression
With the implementation of the FATF Travel Rule in 138 member countries, the anonymity of Bitcoin transactions is gradually being weakened. The U.S. SEC's cautious attitude towards spot ETFs and the advancement of the European MiCA framework signify that the regulatory arbitrage window is closing. The compliance process is restructuring Bitcoin's market positioning, and its adversarial attributes may shift from external challenges to internal complements.

#苹果放宽加密规则 Market Volatility Anomalies
CoinMetrics data shows that Bitcoin's 90-day volatility has long been maintained in the range of 60%-80%, far exceeding the 15%-20% range of the S&P 500 index. This high volatility includes both the premium space against traditional markets and the excessive fluctuations implied by leveraged liquidations. During the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle in 2022, the correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq index plummeted from 0.8 to -0.3, revealing its attribute transformation in different monetary policy phases.

$BTC Value Anchoring Mechanism's Adversarial Nature
Bitcoin's value system, constructed through a network of computational power, forms a structural opposition to the fiat currency credit system. Its fixed supply of 21 million coins sharply contrasts with the unlimited flexibility of central bank monetary policy, creating a natural hedging attribute during periods of fiat currency overissuance. During the 87% expansion of major global central banks' balance sheets in 2020, Bitcoin's market value increased by over 500%, demonstrating a significant inverse correlation.

$BTC After the dinner message was released, whale investors profited through short-term operations (such as earning $730,000 in 30 minutes), showing that this mechanism was used for market manipulation. Legal scholars criticized this move for 'publicizing the trading of power and money,' as the Trump family profited directly through token issuance, fee collections, and affiliated companies holding coins, suspected of using presidential power for profit.

$TRUMP The general public expresses strong dissatisfaction with the high costs of the banquet (such as fireworks displays costing millions of dollars) and the nature of political and business transactions, believing it "humiliates the dignity of democracy." The media reveals that the Trump team blurs the boundaries between politics and business through the banquet, for example, the NFT project "Trump Digital Trading Cards" also uses the VIP banquet as a gimmick to profit from fans.

#比特币市值排名 Trump solidifies supporter loyalty through dinners while diverting public attention from government crises (such as his absence from the White House Correspondents' Dinner in 2017 to avoid media questioning). In his second term, he uses dinner events to reinforce his 'anti-establishment' image, attracting support from the cryptocurrency industry and tech giants, and pushing for policy shifts (such as rescinding Biden-era AI regulatory directives).

#TRUMP晚宴 Dinner as a 'Collusion Tool' of Power and Capital
Trump's dinner strategy is essentially a product of the high binding of personal brand, political power, and business interests. Whether it's the 'legalized corruption' of political fundraising dinners or the 'speculative carnival' of cryptocurrency dinners, both reflect the deeply rooted influence of money in the American political system. This model, while reinforcing Trump's political capital in the short term, may erode public trust in democratic institutions in the long run and exacerbate social division.

When did it open? Speed it up!!

Investors need to flexibly respond by combining technical and fundamental analysis. For example, in gold, attention can be paid to support levels to layout long positions (such as $2890-$2895), while for oil, one should wait for a rebound before taking short positions; for US stocks, it is advisable to diversify risk and focus on industries with steady profits during earnings season. Quantitative trading systems can partially avoid emotional interference, but one must be cautious of the risk of overfitting historical data.

#CPI数据来袭 CPI data serves as a market 'barometer', its impact permeates monetary policy, asset prices, and investor sentiment. In the short term, the data release may trigger significant volatility, but the long-term trend still requires a comprehensive assessment of economic fundamentals and policy paths. It is recommended that investors maintain risk diversification, utilize key technical levels to formulate strategies, and pay attention to the dynamics of Federal Reserve policies and the evolution of geopolitical risks.

$BTC It should be noted that the sustainability of the rebound in the cryptocurrency market depends on the scale and pace of capital inflows. If it is driven solely by short-term leveraged funds, the market is likely to experience severe fluctuations; if accompanied by continuous net inflows of ETF funds or upward shifts in miners' holding costs and other medium to long-term signals, a more stable upward structure may form. Market participants need to be wary of the domino effect caused by derivatives liquidation, especially when futures funding rates are excessively high or when there are abnormal fluctuations in exchange reserve assets, as the risk of price corrections will significantly increase.

#保护你的资产 provides narrative support for endogenous innovation in the industry. The upgrade of the Ethereum network has led to an increase in staking yields, and breakthrough advancements in Layer 2 solutions. Such technological evolution has strengthened the value capture capability of public chains. New asset issuance mechanisms (such as the Bitcoin ecosystem inscription protocol) create a wealth effect, attracting attention from off-market funds. The rebound of DeFi protocol TVL and the resurgence of NFT market trading volume validate the ecological activity from an application perspective.

The recent rebound in the cryptocurrency market, represented by #加密市场反弹 , is typically driven by multiple factors. Its volatility characteristics often result in explosive price corrections. From a driving logic perspective, the core influencing factors are concentrated in the following areas:

Improvements in macro liquidity provide fundamental support. When the Federal Reserve signals a loosening of monetary policy, such as slowing the pace of interest rate hikes or hinting at potential rate cuts, market risk appetite can significantly rebound. The easing of expectations for U.S. dollar liquidity directly reduces funding costs, prompting some safe-haven funds to shift toward higher-risk assets. The attributes of mainstream cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin as 'digital gold' are reinforced, creating a linkage effect with traditional capital markets.

Decision traps often originate from cognitive misjudgments and data distortion. Some investors mistakenly regard the historical highest price as the target price, neglecting the resistance strength formed by the distribution of chips. For example, there is a stronghold of 18% of the total circulation at prices above $120 for SOL. Simply setting return space based on historical peaks will severely overestimate the actual probability. Other users overly rely on technical pattern breakout signals, failing to recognize the false breakout risks triggered by large on-chain transfers. The case of ADA's three failed head and shoulders formations in 2023 shows that relying solely on chart calculations for risk-reward ratios can decrease the stability of strategies by 37%.

Decision traps often arise from cognitive misjudgment and data distortion. Some investors mistakenly regard the historical highest price as the target price, ignoring the strength of resistance formed by the distribution of shares. For example, there is a trapped position above $120 for SOL, which accounts for 18% of the total circulation. Simply setting return space based on historical highs will severely overestimate the actual probability. Other users overly rely on technical breakout signals, failing to recognize the false breakout risks caused by large on-chain transfers. The 2023 ADA case of three failed head-and-shoulders formations shows that relying solely on chart calculations for risk-reward ratios can reduce strategy stability by 37%.

During the Trump administration, the tariff policy towards China was adjusted multiple times, with "suspension of tariffs" mainly referring to the delay or partial exemption of already imposed tariffs under specific circumstances. This decision is usually based on multiple considerations: first, internal industry pressure in the United States is an important factor, as some industries experience increased production costs due to tariffs, prompting companies to lobby the government to postpone taxation to alleviate operational pressure; second, diplomatic negotiation strategies require releasing signals of easing during critical stages of trade negotiations in exchange for concessions from the other party; moreover, the need for economic stability during special periods, such as the temporary removal of tariffs on certain medical products to ensure the supply of medical materials in the wake of the pandemic impact in 2020.

From a policy characteristic perspective, such tariff suspensions are clearly temporary and selective. The scope of exemptions often focuses on irreplaceable Chinese goods or essential goods related to people's livelihoods, and the duration is often linked to specific events. Its essence remains a component of the United States' "maximum pressure" negotiation strategy, maintaining continuous pressure on negotiation counterparts through dynamic adjustments of tariff leverage.

This policy has a dual impact on the international market: in the short term, it alleviates some cost pressure on importers and stabilizes the supply chain of specific goods; but in the long term, it exacerbates market uncertainty, forcing companies to adjust their global supply chain layouts. Chinese export companies gain breathing space during this process, but also face the risk of order fluctuations. It is worth noting that the suspension of tariffs did not change the structural contradictions in Sino-U.S. economic and trade relations, as divergences on core issues such as technological competition and market access continue to exist.

From a macro perspective, this policy fluctuation reflects the practical limitations of unilateral tariff tools. Even if execution is postponed, the previously imposed tariffs still have an inhibitory effect on bilateral trade. Data shows that the trade volume of goods between China and the U.S. decreased by 13% between 2018 and 2020, and the repeated adjustments of tariff policies have objectively accelerated the diversification process of multinational companies' supply chains. This strategic suspension is essentially a typical case of political decisions dominating economic affairs, with its effects constrained by profound changes in the global economic environment and industrial structure.

$BTC data shows that in 2024, the average holdings of crypto funds include 35% Bitcoin, 28% Ethereum, 22% leading altcoins, and 15% cash equivalents. This allocation maintains a foundational position in mainstream assets while capturing excess returns through altcoins, and also reserves liquidity to respond to black swan events. Retail investors can make minor adjustments based on this, such as subdividing the altcoin position into sub-sectors like infrastructure, application layer, and metaverse, selecting 2-3 projects with technological differentiation in each sub-sector.

#保持SAFU From the perspective of asset classes, mainstream coins, altcoins, stablecoins, NFTs, and derivatives have differentiated risk-return curves; from the market cycle perspective, the rotation effect between Bitcoin and altcoins is significant, typically dominated by Bitcoin in the early bull market and later taken over by small and mid-cap tokens; from the perspective of participants, institutional funds prefer highly liquid mainstream assets, while retail investors tend to favor high-volatility small-cap projects. This structural differentiation requires investors to establish a three-dimensional allocation framework across categories, cycles, and participants.