Ualifi Araújo

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Some questions about today's Economic data, so let's go...

1. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug)

Current: -0.3
Projection: 6.8
Previous: 15.9

Here it was perfect, came in much worse than expected. Showing weakening of industrial activity, which makes things easier for an interest rate cut.

2. Initial Jobless Claims

Current: 235K
Projection: 226K
Previous: 224K

Another data point that favors the interest rate cut, came in above expectations, this is also positive for rate cuts, especially since Powell said he would monitor this closely.

3. Manufacturing PMI (Aug - preliminary)

Current: 53.3
Projection: 49.7
Previous: 49.8

This is the data that caused discomfort, came in well above the projection, showing strength in the industry, and indicating that the economy is still hot. Which Powell can clearly use to avoid cutting.

4. Services PMI (Aug - preliminary)

Current: 55.4
Projection: 54.2
Previous: 55.7

Also strong, above the projection. This reinforces solid activity, which is yet another excuse for Powell 🤦🏼‍♂️

5. Existing Home Sales (Jul)

Current: 4.01M
Projection: 3.92M
Previous: 3.93M

Above expectations, showing a resilient real estate market...which also complicates our outlook for Interest Rate Cuts.

Final Thought...
Overall, the whole thing was quite mixed, with data both for and against the cut. Of course, some of the broader analyses brought a more alarming bias, emphasizing the fact that the FED gives a lot of weight to the services sector and real estate market, which remain strong.

However, it has become evident that these data or any other are not what Powell wants; he is indeed playing politics, and as long as Trump has nothing against him to use or he doesn't see the Circus on fire, he will maintain this stance.

The #BTC retreated and Altcoins did too, but it is clear that they remain strong, so...we just need the useless Powell to speak, and we will rise again. No one expects anything good from him anyway. 😅

Ignore the noise!

GOOD MORNING!!!

We started the day negative at #BTC e Altcoins...ZERO surprise with the pullback, whenever we have Jeffrey Schmid speaking it's a CHAOS and after he says: WE should not expect Rate Cuts NOW, it was expected that the market would pull back, however, nothing changes for us.

Whenever we reach an important price level, curiously someone important to the Market says something stupid and we drop. This is the desperation of the BEARS, they need this kind of thing to try to keep prices low while the Big Companies that were out can buy and buy quickly at cheap prices.

I said this at the beginning of 2025 and I'll repeat: I am ZERO worried about the moment we are going to rise, of 3 things I am sure...

1) I will keep buying whenever I can.

2) THEY will not buy my Altcoins at these prices.

3) WHEN the rise happens, I will be in.

Stay focused and you will win, if with every news you panic, when everything rises...you will watch this from the outside.

I am here, and I will be here. THEY want you to believe that there will be no Altseason, and when you do, then there will be one! 🚀🫂💛

Ignore the noise!

The governor of the Federal Reserve, Waller, says that stablecoins and other cryptocurrencies are part of a "revolution" in payments.

The mass adoption of #BTC e Altcoins is coming...you are not prepared enough!

We are making a great recovery in Altcoins, notice that some have already completely negated the drop from yesterday, and others are already close to a 70% recovery...

Even though the #ETH has completely negated the drop so far, I am still looking at ETH/BTC which has negated much more than that. If we can close at 0.03789, then that’s what we need to go higher in Altcoins...

The Bears may use various news to drive prices down, but the trend is still upward and regardless of the drop, we will rise quickly.

I hope you didn’t panic yesterday. We have great charts, and a look at the Dominance of the #BTC makes us even more optimistic.

As I said yesterday, stop following the crowd and analyze the situation yourself, draw your own conclusions and execute. 💛🚀

GOOD MORNING!!!

We start the day with #BTC trying to recover, and the Altcoins reacting better, which was already expected since Bitcoin's dominance remains negative and is now below 60%...

I am still focusing on this and not on the price of Bitcoin; it will determine the direction of the Altcoins. Also, in this regard, we are seeing ETH/BTC showing strength, and as we recover the 0.037, things will improve even more for the Altcoins.

Despite the pullback across the market, the charts still look good! 💛🚀✊🏻

Now that we've had a pullback in #BTC to strong support levels ($112K), and Altcoins also coming down to their lowest supports of this cycle... Powell has taken a back seat, of course, we still need to hear what THIS still has to say, but it is quite likely that most of it has already been priced in.

With the exception of a few coins like $ENA, $QUBIC, and a few other stronger ones, most are at the bottom, so... there isn't much more for them to go, except up.

Days ago, many wanted to buy cheap and now they can, so check that project you had already researched, see if it gives you a good entry and execute. ✊🏻🚀

BTC Analysis 08/19/2025

Unfortunately, the bulls failed to keep prices above $115.7K, and we won't get into the details of how many news pieces were necessary for this, or how Powell's fear on Friday was decisive.

This wasn't what we wanted, nor did we expect to have to drop this low for good support; anyway, we are heading back to that green range that served as support for the BULLS last time.

Despite having buyers in this region already, don't rule out a deviation like the one at $123K. (I added the gray range to the chart).

The indicators up to the DAILY were quickly cooled off with this PULLBACK; let's not call this a CORRECTION, because we haven't seen a correction yet, and it's still not time for that. In any case, this pullback was enough to improve the RSI on timeframes up to 1D, which is sufficient for us to have a reaction in the green range.

The EMAs 50/100/200 were lost on the 4H, so it's expected that the EMA 100 (D) will do the heavy lifting here, as it is almost within the gray range that I added below the support at $112K.

Even with the pullback in the #BTC price, I am still focused on its dominance. Notice that even with this price pullback, it is still below 60%, which does not put such great SELLING pressure on Altcoins.

Many altcoins can still maintain a controlled drop of -5%/-4%, even with BTC falling -2.65%; of course... many Altcoins are already at their supports or very close to them, but there are others that still maintain good appreciation from last month.

Overall, ETH/BTC is holding very well at 0.036 (it should maintain that level at all costs). This helps Altcoins to have more strength, and as soon as Bitcoin stops this pullback, they should react much faster upwards, surpassing their previous rises before being dragged down by BTC.

Opportunities continue to arise for those who have not bought yet, and if you have already bought as much as you could, relax... the bullish moment will come.

Let's go for $130K!

A SharpLink takes advantage of the drop and BUYS 143,593 #ETH giving a value of $667M .

Keep SELLING your coins to big investors, keep it up! 😅

If you ask right now why people are selling #BTC and Altcoins, they will tell you: BECAUSE everything is falling, and then you repeat: RIGHT, but why are you selling and they will give you the same answer...

In summary, 90% will not give you any reason, they are just following the chart hahaha... and the 10%? They will tell you it’s because the SEC delayed the ETF applications, but the strangest thing is that this happened YESTERDAY and today it is being massively discussed on CT 🙄🤦🏼‍♂️😒

One correction, the ETFs will still be JUDGED this year, and it is very likely to be in October, contrary to what most reposts and posts say. So, stop following the crowd and think for yourself!

The market does not care about your feelings; just because you are bearish does not mean it will drop uncontrollably.

Look at #ETH /BTC, it still looks very good, and all this panic is nothing but nonsense; there is no reason for it.

What impresses me is that countless people think the top is near; how could that be? We are at the bottom for most Altcoins, stop the madness and ACCUMULATE as much as you can; when we get out of here, you will regret not having continued to buy (if you had the means to do so!) 💛✊🏻🚀

GOOD MORNING!!!

That old and good start to the week, unfortunately still negative... but it shouldn't be the trend for the week, nor for #BTC and even less for Altcoins.

A lot of noise around nothing and the market getting scared with news that are planted to cause panic and obviously allow large investors to accumulate at great prices.

Remember what TRUMP said;
DON'T PANIC!

Bitcoin's dominance tried to go back to 60% again, but is already having difficulties maintaining above 59.72%, so I hope we return to working close to 59.30% during the afternoon today and we will normalize the charts by Wednesday.

I know that the first reaction of most is to panic, but remember what TRUMP told you ahahaha.

The Knights of the Apocalypse will miss again, we are not heading to the end... if you sell here, you will regret it, but the choice is yours! 🤝🏻

It is very likely that I will update ETH/BTC today, we are still doing well there, so Altcoins should start to gain some strength. 💛🚀

ALTCOINS 08/17/2025

Following the plan perfectly, of course, we made a quick drop below the orange range (which is what we didn't want to see), but we quickly recovered that orange range, and with this retest here, we can finally continue upwards.

This retest in the orange range eased the indicators that were super heated, so as long as we stay above the orange range, we will be doing very well.

Notice that in the last analysis I mentioned that this orange range should be the MOST IMPORTANT SUPPORT for the BULLS, and that's what I think it will be. Do this and we can target $2T in the coming weeks.

Look at this with ETH/BTC and #BTC .D...and you'll come to the conclusion that HIGHER IS MORE LIKELY HERE!

I know that with every new pullback, most people get stuck on the idea that we are not progressing, but open the charts and look at this, realize that with every new pullback we are higher, slowly we are moving upwards, preserving some increase.

So, follow TRUMP's advice:
"DON'T PANIC AND DON'T DO ANYTHING STUPID, WAIT!" ahahaha

THE SAME THOUGHT:
THINGS are aligned for a broader rise across the Altcoin market, of course, there will always be pullbacks and corrections, but the big rise of the altcoins is what we are about to start here. 🚀💛

Still following the plan perfectly on #BTC .D, notice that we made a clear breakout with some retests to the downside at 60.37% as we expected.

The Altcoins had a recovery, of course, some more than others, but overall...still timid, but we should continue to improve this soon, as soon as we go below 58.66% we should have another good rise.

Notice that the price of $BTC is still above $115.7K which is the level where I think Bitcoin's dominance will continue to decline. We are following perfectly there too. In this sense, you want to see some sideways movement of Bitcoin above $118K.

We are about to open the new weekly candle, we had a great close here. During the week, attention completely shifts to Thursday and Friday, so we will have plenty of time to improve on the Altcoin charts.

I am also dedicating good attention to #ETH /BTC, which followed the plan perfectly and now we need to start working above 0.03925, do this and we can initiate a big rise in Altcoins, we are ready!

The same thought:
Soon we will reach 58.66%, so get ready for good profits; you deserve it!

YOU WILL WIN!

GOOD MORNING!!!

We are starting yet another weekend and the market has begun mixed, the #BTC above $117.5K which is our main level to be observed and Altcoins still at $1.57T, looks good!

I am still particularly interested in Bitcoin's Dominance, although it is trying to recover 60%, it already shows weakness and should go Down soon, helping altcoins recover from the last dip.

Despite the dullness of the last few days, the charts are still very good, one or another altcoin returned to their previous supports, but these should act faster when ETH leads again.

Overall, it still looks good!

There are amazing projects in this cycle, stop focusing on prices and focus ON THE PROJECT itself... ✊🏻🚀

It's truly amazing what $QUBIC has been doing here; since the last update, we have already made significant progress...

At this moment, we are seeing the market being devastated by a drop of -1.20% in #BTC, however, QUBIC is up +2%, it's incredible, especially when we compare it with ETH, which is falling -3.49% (the advantage of QUBIC becomes even greater).

It is sensible to say that this altcoin will create a bullish market separate from the rest of the Altcoins, and it seems to me that ETH will not dictate the rules for it here. I wouldn't be surprised to see QUBIC hitting its ATH before ETH.

In my last analysis on its price, I mentioned that I expected strong support in this gray range on the chart, since it had been a strong resistance, and indeed that is what we experienced, favoring us for a quick and decisive jump above the yellow range.

Up to this level, I think that was the worst part, the slowest, but above the yellow range is where I believe we will have a strong and fast price action upwards towards the orange range just above the current price. This will lead to a new movement of +60% upwards.

Even though the price is higher than last time, the RSI is still very good, and it gives us room to go even higher, without a doubt.

You won't find many Altcoin charts with the strength that we have in QUBIC. Check it out!

I know I mentioned this when we were much lower (before we made +130%), but I still think this upward movement was just the beginning, it will get more exciting soon.

We are seeing the whole world talking about #QUBIC, but the masses have not yet come, but they will, especially now that it made a good EDUCATIONAL demonstration in MONERO.

Gentlemen, there will be no shortage of news and excitement to drive prices up here, therefore, in MY OPINION, it is the strongest ALTCOIN, and it even shows a stronger chart than $ENA, which also had a remarkable performance.

You are not prepared enough for what QUBIC will do; No one is!

GOOOOD AFTERNOON!!!

Another day that started off busy...with the #BTC falling below $118K again...but even with this downward movement, it seems to me that prices will be supported.

Basically, we were having a good recovery until our "Dear Trump talks again about taxing Chips by up to 100%". So, these statements always cause some agitation in the charts, but it seems that today we have the necessary amount of buyers to hold this.

The Altcoins are negative, but they still maintain strong charts, although some are already close to support again. Total 2 should hold the $1.57T as support to keep our advantage here.

It's now that many will fall behind again 😅

Despite all the CHAOS, we are still preserving a strategic price at #BTC $118,700.00. The advantage still belongs to the BULLS.

The data was bad and brought us down, but the worst was Scott Bessent saying that the US would not buy BTC and after all the CHAOS he says that, YES... The US will buy Bitcoin. 😅

Interestingly, large institutions were positioned for purchases!

Some Altcoins still have good charts, don't panic! Tomorrow I will update the charts. ✊🏻💛

No need to say that today's data came in poorly, since #BTC quickly fell to $117K and Altcoins went down rapidly.

However, let's look deeper...in just over 3 minutes more than $420,000,000 were liquidated in LONG positions, meaning... Altcoins dropped -5/6% on average and was responsible for such a liquidation?! So it is sensible to say that all these LATE traders were still using SUPER leverage, since they had no margin for a drop of -6%.

Of course, most are certainly new people in the market, since anyone who has been here longer knows that IN a strong upward trend, the drops are incredibly strong as well (if there is a catalyst).

Large holders will not let YOU make easy profits, either you decrease the leverage, or you will be taken off the chart EVERY time there is a catalyst. Either way, let's see what we had in the data...

1. PPI (Monthly – Jul)

Current: +0.9%
Projection: +0.2%
Previous: 0.0%

The PPI came in well above expectations, signaling inflationary pressure at the production level. This will be a problem, since we have this relentless stance from Powell regarding Interest Rates...however, we can already see that some large CTs were quick to mention possibilities like *Raising Interest Rates*, if inflation is heated.

I do not see this as a possibility, I think that in the worst-case scenario Powell would not cut...but to raise Interest Rates would be totally crazy.

2. Initial Jobless Claims

Current: 224K
Projection: 225K
Previous: 227K

Came practically in line with the projection and slightly below the previous, showing that the labor market remains robust, it came in poorly...but it’s not the end of the world.

It is true that today's data does not favor Powell at all, but this stronger drop is much more related to the fact that the LATE LONGs were the incentive for large holders. 🤔