逍遥侯008

The trend of BTB from last night to today, #比特币 #以太坊 BTB, may indicate that the market leaders (not excluding exchanges/market makers) are harvesting market liquidity.

The liquidation map of BTB shows that after hitting a recent high of 106000 last night, the liquidity available for short positions that the market can harvest is limited. Without short counterparties, the conditions for BTB to reach new highs in the short term are not mature, and the profit-taking from long positions below will also create selling pressure in the market, restricting upward movement and even suppressing prices. This is the reason for the roller coaster ride of Bitcoin from last night to this morning.

The market leaders harvesting liquidity from both long and short sides also indicates that the turnover of BTB at the current market price is not sufficient, and the stability of the market is not enough. It can only achieve market stability through increasing market volatility to allow for adequate turnover, which means that it is relatively difficult for BTB to reach new highs in the short term.

The depth of Bitcoin's pullback after reaching a high this morning slightly increases the probability of forming a short-term top (or at least creating a larger consolidation platform). Although the overall upward trend is intact, once the middle and short-term overall upward trend since 74500 is broken, the adjustment space will expand (increasing volatility for adequate turnover). The pullback of Bitcoin after reaching above 107000 this morning also indicates that there is no counterpart fuel for the upward movement. The key support level below is referenced at the 100718---101500 range. If 100718 is lost, it essentially means that maintaining 100000 is not possible. If the market leaders harvest liquidity from long positions downward, the support below is referenced at 98000, within the 92,000 to 94,000 range.

#比特币 #以太坊 Under the influence of a series of concentrated news such as the Sino-US contact negotiations, the recent Bitcoin reserve bill passed in New Hampshire, CZ, and SBF seeking a Trump pardon, BTB rose directly from 94500 to above 97500 this morning, approaching last week's highest point of 97895.

From a technical perspective, the lowest point of the BTB pullback last night at 93377 did not break below last week's lowest point of 92800, and the bullish trend that broke above the 89000 level pressure with a long bullish candle on April 22 has been maintained. This morning's rise extended the strong consolidation period of the Bitcoin daily candle cycle.

The strong consolidation pattern over the past two weeks resembles an ascending triangle. The upper horizontal resistance is at 97895; the lower support is at 92800/93377. This overall strong consolidation means that even if it stands above the upper resistance of 97895, the future trend will still fluctuate.

On the BTB 4-hour candle cycle, the strong consolidation over the past two weeks has formed a clear support line, which is also the lower support line of the ascending triangle. Generally, this kind of 4-hour candle support line tends to break down, which indicates that at some point in the short term, BTB is likely to break below the support levels of 93377 and 92800, breaking through the two-week support line, and testing the platform support above 89000 and 90000.

There are still many uncertainties in the Sino-US negotiations, which are factors influencing the market. The Federal Reserve meeting early tomorrow morning is very likely not to cut interest rates, and any cuts might be postponed until June, and the market has already priced this in.

On the BTB daily candle cycle, the 24-day moving average and the 120-day moving average resonate at 91600, while the 288-day moving average is currently at 81800. The distance between the 120-day moving average and the 288-day moving average has not narrowed to 5000, or within 5000-3000, which means there is still a lot of uncertainty regarding the sustainability of Bitcoin's rise.

If Bitcoin's daily candle falls back to the middle of the 120-day moving average and the 288-day moving average range, it means there is still a chance for it to pull back and test 86500. If it tests the 288-day moving average, Bitcoin may have a chance to pull back to 84000 or lower. These opportunities can be considered as high-cost-performance entry points for the future market.

In trading, there is no need to feel anxious about today's morning rise of Bitcoin approaching above 97000 due to news stimuli. Patience is required to wait for the aforementioned high-cost-performance mid-term entry opportunities.

#BTB 4-hour K-line period, since the bottom of 74500, there has been a clear upward support line. This upward trend line is too steep.

BTB has risen from 74500 without experiencing a pullback; both adjustments were sideways instead of downward. Last night, BTB broke through the weekly consolidation pressure line upwards and continued to create new highs. The upward momentum has already become somewhat insufficient. After reaching a new high here, do not have overly high expectations in the short term. The upper pressure zone is between 98500 and 99500.

In the short term, before BTB broke through the weekly box consolidation pattern last night, the highest point was 95800. After standing above 95800 last night, the market pulled back to stabilize at 95800 before continuing to rise, confirming the effectiveness of the upward break of the highest point of the 95800 box. It was a valid upward breakout.

BTB has risen from below 80000. The continuous consumption of upward momentum, after last night's upward break of the highest point of the weekly consolidation pattern at 95800, has significantly reduced the upward momentum in the market compared to the upward momentum when it broke above 86500 and 89000 earlier last week. The strength of the upward movement after breaking the consolidation pattern is equivalent to a middle-aged uncle of 4.5 years old, eager but unable.

As the upward momentum is exhausted, the selling pressure from short-term profit-taking may emerge, and the short-term technical analysis may end the upward trend since the bottom at 74500. After standing above 95800, for BTB's cyclic market trend, focus on the support line for oscillation upwards above 95800. If the support at 95800 is maintained in the short term, the overall strong consolidation and upward oscillation will continue. In terms of the remaining two or three days of today or this week, losing 95800 would indicate the beginning of a short-term pullback.

Once the market experiences a medium to short-term bullish profit-taking pullback, ending the upward trend since 74500, the profit-taking adjustment is likely to fall below the support at 92800 (the lowest support of the weekly box consolidation) and test for support near 90000 or in the range of 89000 to 90000.

This week on Monday and Tuesday, Bitcoin strongly broke through the two resistances of 86500 and 88765, and the strong consolidation over the past three days has pushed the price upwards. The daily K-line for Bitcoin has recorded five consecutive positive closes. After experiencing a strong fluctuation and consolidation over the past three days, the 5-day moving average has now moved up to 94000, and the 10-day moving average has tested upwards to around 90000. The bullish arrangement of the 5, 10, and 20-day moving averages has formed, indicating that Bitcoin will continue to maintain strength above 89000 in the short term. The lowest point during the strong consolidation over the past three days was 91660, which is also the short-term support and the support of the 120-day moving average. After the market digested the negative impact of the trade war, and with no significant black swan events, the market began to bet on the Fed's interest rate cuts. If Bitcoin continues to maintain a strong consolidation and rise above 91660 next week, it means that the recent rise after Bitcoin stood above the short-term resistance of 88765 on Tuesday is a stronger upward movement. If the market pulls back next week and falls below 91660, testing the area above 89000, and then quickly returns above 91660, it can be judged that during the pullback, there is strong buying support; then the upward trend after Bitcoin stands above the short-term platform of 88765 will have a more prolonged time cycle. This rise may approach 100000 or the previous high of 109588 on January 21. Support below is at 91660 and 89000. The historical trend of Bitcoin shows that from February 5 to February 23, Bitcoin consolidated in the range of 95000 to 99000, with considerable trapped positions. If the market can relieve this portion of trapped positions next week, the bulls will have a new opportunity. If the bulls can actively liberate the trapped positions, the future target may be far beyond just 100000 and the previous high. If Bitcoin stands above 100000 again, it means standing on the resurrected zombie and will jump even higher. Additionally, there are still significant shorts holding positions around 89000 and 90000. To make this portion of shorts surrender, one way is to return to around 90000, causing the shorts to escape and surrender; the other way is to make these shorts completely die. Regardless of the method that leads the shorts to surrender or die, it will serve as fuel for the market's rise (short covering is buying to close). In the short term, continue to maintain a bullish mindset. Those who missed out can take advantage of the market's sideways adjustment to enter with a small position or observe, but absolutely should not short the market.

The large pancake is relatively difficult to drop in the short term. Last night, it pulled back to 92,000 and then rebounded. In the 4-hour K-line cycle, the 5, 10, and 24 parameter moving averages are still diverging upwards, especially the 24 parameter moving average price is still below 90,000, and there is still a significant distance from the 5 and 10 parameter moving averages, making it relatively difficult to decline in the short term. Currently, it is oscillating and consolidating in the 95,000---92,000 range, with support at 92,000; 88,800; 86,500; 83,000; and resistance at 95,000; 100,000. #比特币 #以太坊

This morning's rise of Bitcoin is technical. Bitcoin has been consolidating for a week, wearing down market patience. This morning, it broke through a week-long resistance line, triggering some short stop-losses and algorithmic trading, driving Bitcoin's rise. This week-long consolidation has a support line at 83,000 below and a slightly downward sloping resistance line above. From a technical perspective, today it broke through the resistance line. Generally, the support line below is short-term (formed within a week), and under normal circumstances, this support line will also be broken; it's just a matter of time. #比特币 #以太坊

Two supports were formed near 74500, but there was only a day's gap in between, making the second bottom test too close in time. In the short term, the trade war has not eased, the Federal Reserve is not giving any signals, and the Bitcoin ETF continues to see outflows. There are no favorable conditions in the short term, and it cannot be ruled out that the market may experience a further decline to around 75000/74500, or possibly pierce below 74500 to create a new low, triggering technical long stop losses before rebounding. Regardless of how the market moves, if there is a pullback to 78,000 to 77,000 or 76,000 to 75,000, one must seize the opportunity to enter the market with positions. Although the short-term trend is not strong, it won't drop much further. Do not short the market; those with patience should wait for a right-side, short-to-medium-term opportunity when the market strengthens comprehensively. #比特币 #以太坊

#比特币 #Ethereum. Whether it's US stocks or Bitcoin, it ultimately depends on the liquidity and capital flow in the market. In the end, it still depends on the Federal Reserve. If the Federal Reserve implements large-scale interest rate cuts this year, then the Nasdaq and Bitcoin may return to this year's peak or even above 100,000.

Personally, I believe that if Trump's policies continue, regardless of how things end, it is a fact that US stocks have significantly declined this year. If the tariff policies are not adjusted or canceled in the future, US stocks will continue to be under pressure. Consequently, inflation will rise, small and medium-sized business owners will go bankrupt, and the US economy will enter a recession, which will naturally force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Only by cutting interest rates can the market stabilize, increase liquidity, and drive the rise of US stocks and Bitcoin. This could happen in the second half of the year.

74,500 is a medium to short-term low point; it is unrealistic to expect a rise to 89,000 or above in the short term. Yesterday, Bitcoin digested the positive news of the 90-day tariff suspension, but without follow-up positive news, the market will likely pull back to the point where it jumped up last night, which is around 78,800. In the short term, Bitcoin still has a chance to pull back to around 78,000. This year's most cost-effective opportunity to enter a long position has already appeared. In the past few days, regardless of the entry price for long positions, holding onto them could yield above 100,000 in the second half of the year or set new highs. For those who have not entered, gradually entering below 80,000 is advisable.

#2 On February 24, before the BTB broke down, the technical aspect of BTB had been strongly consolidating in the range of 89256---109588 for nearly 100 days. Accordingly, after the BTB broke down on February 24, BTC should also have a weak consolidation below the breakdown point of 93,000 for about 3 months/100 days. In fact, since BTB dropped below 93,000 on February 24, it has spent less than 24 hours above 93,000. The highest point in the last month was 88765 on March 24 (short to medium-term pressure), and it has been just a month and a half since the breakdown on February 24. Given the insufficient consolidation time, the future market for BTB to break through 88765 and return above 90,000 is likely to occur sometime between late May and early June.
The technical trend of BTB is very regular and symmetrical. Before the breakdown on February 24, the maximum fluctuation space of the strong consolidation was 20,000 dollars, with a fluctuation range of 89256---109588. Since the breakdown on February 24, the maximum fluctuation space for BTC has also been nearly 20,000 dollars, with a trading range of 95000---the lowest point of 74508 yesterday. The lowest point yesterday can basically be confirmed as the mid-term bottom for BTB since the drop on January 20.
81200 divides the range of 88765---84500 into two upper and lower ranges. Early Monday morning, before BTC dropped below 81200, the market consolidated and traded in the range of 81200---88765, with the lower range being 81200---74500; the fluctuation above 81200 is about 7500 dollars, while the fluctuation below 81200 is 6700 dollars. The fluctuation difference between the two ranges is not significant, which indirectly indicates that after BTB broke the short-term key support level of 81200, it dropped to yesterday's lowest point of 74500, and the downward space has basically been utilized. 81200 was originally a key support, and its loss has also become short-term pressure, so the rebound of BTC last night was also hindered by 81200. The trading range in the past few days has been 81200---74500. The market needs to return above 81000 to have a chance to impact around 89,000.
This year, there has been a relatively high cost-effectiveness opportunity to enter long positions, with BTC oscillating in the range of 81200--74500 to build a bottom. Timing the entry may benefit from the continuous interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, pushing BTC above 100,000 or to new highs. #比特币 #以太坊

The technical aspects of large range fluctuations are basically symmetrical. The BTB second probe will be quite complicated, similar to the rebound from 76600 to the highest point of last week at 88765, experiencing three waves. We do not know if the bottom of the second probe is 81,000, 80,000, or 78,000, or if it will approach 76600 or even break to a new low. During the second probe, there was some space for a pullback, so it's essential to buy on dips and maintain a certain position. In the future, if the 4-hour K-line breaks through the yellow pressure line, the medium-term downward trend since January 20 will have ended. If one missed the opportunity during the BTB second probe, the 4-hour break of the pressure line that has lasted for over two months is also a timely technical right-side entry opportunity to go long. One certain thing in the future is that the Federal Reserve definitely won't be able to hold on and will cut interest rates, leading to the continued devaluation of the dollar. Therefore, in the big picture, BTB will rise again, possibly even to new highs. The space from 85,000 to 80,000 is a 5,000 dollar range; from 85,000 to 105,000 or new highs is a 20,000 to 30,000 dollar range, which one can evaluate the cost-effectiveness of. #比特币 #Ethereum

Yesterday there was a technical support that held up, but this kind of multi-point support line (three touches) will definitely be broken in the future. Once it breaks, the main support will not be today's early morning low of 85860, and there will definitely be lower levels of 84000 and 81000. #比特币 #Ethereum

After reaching a record high in early November last year, trading remained above 90,000 for more than 3 months. Since the breakdown on February 24, the drop to the current adjustment low of 76,600 represents a space of about 16,000 dollars, which is approximately the distance from the high near 92,000 to 110,000. The adjustment space is basically in place; even if the short-term market drops below 76,600 to create a new low, the space is limited. It is also easy for BTB to reach a new low of 76,600 and be pulled back above 80,000 by technical buying on dips. From the breakdown on February 24 to today, just over a month has passed. Although the adjustment space is in place, the adjustment time is still insufficient, and the technical aspect of BTB should still have a period of fluctuation below 90,000. Currently, we are just waiting to buy in batches below 80,000.

On the 4-hour Bitcoin chart, it broke through the recent narrow range of fluctuations overnight. During the day, pay attention to whether it forms support after retracing near 85000. If it can hold, the short-term price of Bitcoin will touch the short-to-medium-term resistance line (since the decline from 109500). It is expected to be difficult to break through in the short term, thus forming another narrow range fluctuation between 85000 and 90000. #比特币 #Ethereum

The market is facing pressure around 85,000, and it is likely that, similar to February 20, it will rise above the 24-day moving average, break through the pressure line, trigger short-sellers' stop-loss orders, and then turn downward again. Currently, the short-term overall technical trend remains weak. Although the 5-day and 10-day moving averages have flattened out, the 20/24-day moving averages are still extending downward. It will take time to change the current weak trend technically, or perhaps the Federal Reserve's meeting decision later tonight will provide some hints. #美联储3月利率决议 #比特币 #Ethereum

After the Bitcoin price stabilized after dropping to between 76600 and 78000, the short-term market is mainly rebounding, with intraday pressure around 85300. A strong breakthrough is needed to reach the pressure above 90000. In the short term, the trading focus of Bitcoin price is gradually moving upward, and the market may break through 85300 to open up upward space, but there will be medium-term pressure (since the drop from 10950) above 90000, making it difficult to break through directly. In the short term, it will remain in the trading range of 78000-90000, and as time goes by, the trading range will gradually narrow. In terms of intraday trends, the focus is on buying low, betting on a breakthrough at 85300. #比特币 #以太

When Ethereum abandoned miners and transitioned to PoS, it lost its price anchor and thus lost price support.

The demand for Ethereum can also be falsified, and its value will continue to decrease.

After moving to PoS, staking becomes a nested growth mechanism, and since Ethereum itself has no anchored valuation, this nesting cannot continue.

Post-PoS Ethereum is essentially no different from SOL; the gameplay on the Ethereum chain is also available on the SOL chain.

The price of SOL fluctuates greatly; in such a short time, it can drop from 300 to 120, also due to the lack of a price anchor, relying entirely on market demand, which can suddenly plummet to zero.

Essentially, Ethereum now is like SOL, where demand can also be falsified.

Ethereum without innovation is just EOS; if the demand for Ethereum decreases, it could drop below 1000.

The reason why US stocks could keep rising before was due to leading the forefront of technology. Now, Tokyo University is almost leading across the entire industry, and there are breakthroughs in technology, even surpassing the United States. The US technology has opened a gap, and US stocks have lost their advantage. An unprecedented bubble is being squeezed out, and in the high interest rate environment of the US dollar, the fundamental advantages of US technology stocks have disappeared. The US stock market will not improve, and Bitcoin will not do well in the short term either. A large-scale interest rate cut by the US dollar might provide some relief, but right now, the Federal Reserve is silent and not cutting rates, and US stocks will continue to face downward pressure. The trading range is moving downward, and the overall trend is still relatively weak.

The price has faced resistance around 110,000 and has adjusted. Three large triangle patterns have formed, and the trading range and time span of these three large triangle patterns are getting smaller. Currently, the last triangle pattern is forming, with an approximate range of 76,600 to 85,000. The technical adjustment pattern has gone through three triangle formations, and the trading range of the triangles is becoming increasingly narrower, indicating a weakening of downward momentum. The technical aspect may conclude the adjustment since 110,000 after the second bottom test of the third triangle pattern. Alternatively, it could break down below the final triangle pattern's range of 85,000 to 76,600, creating a small dip before quickly recovering to end. In trading, cherish the second bottom-buying opportunity in the range of 85,000 to 76,600 of the third large triangle or the opportunity to buy at the bottom after breaking down from the third large triangle pattern. This opportunity should be the best bottom-buying chance in the first half of the year.

Look at the rebound path of the pancakes from 79000 to 84500 in the past two days, there should be another oscillating decline below 80000 afterwards.