姓赵不宣

🚨4-Year Cycle Simulation Highlights (Not Investment Advice)🚨
⚡️Short-Term Volatility
▫️Q3-Q4 may retest strong support at $68K-$73K (Miner Cost + CME Gap)
▫️Weekly TD9 Sequence is about to be reached
🚀Main Uptrend Logic
✅Dual Cycle Resonance: Halving Effect (May 2024) + Federal Reserve Liquidity (Q4 2024)
✅Whale Cost Anchor: Institutions building positions at $65K-$70K / Mining Machine Iteration Cost at $58K
✅Policy Catalyst: U.S. Crypto Legislation may accelerate
🎯Target Trajectory
▫️Conservative Target for H1 2025 at $114K (1.618 Fibonacci Level)
▫️Trump Cycle Exceeding Expectations Scenario $160K+ (Benchmarking Gold 5% Market Value)
⚠️Risk Warning
▫️Monthly RSI > 90 will trigger epic overbought conditions
▫️Whale Position Concentration has reached levels seen on the eve of the 2021 Bull Market
▫️Black Swan Monitoring: U.S. Treasury Liquidity / Middle East Situation

#BOME $BOME Long Trade

Entry: 0.001542

Target: 0.001586 - 0.001725 - 0.00195

Stop Loss: 0.001497

#JASMY $JASMY Bullish Trade

Entry: 0.01645 - 0.01614

Target: 0.017148 - 0.01813

Stop Loss: 0.015875

📊 BTC "Right Side Signal" Update: Cost Basis by Age
🔍 Cost Basis Analysis by Age: Comparing the "<1 Month Short-term Chip Cost" (Red Line) with the "<6 Months Mid-term Chip Cost" (Green Line). When the red line is below the green line, it indicates a decline in short-term investor profits, and the market needs time to adjust; when the red line crosses above the green line, it suggests new demand is driving up costs, often accompanied by a trending market (Figure 1).
📈 Current Status: BTC price has risen above the green line, and market confidence is gradually recovering, but the red line is still below the green line. In July 2024 (Point A), the red line failed to touch the green line, and the price continued to adjust; in September (Point B), the red line successfully crossed above the green line, and BTC entered a trending market, with an increase of over 70%. Is it A or B now? Based on the distance between the red and green lines, it may take about 1 month to find out.
⚠️ Not every time the red line crosses above the green line leads to a significant rise. After the panic sell-off on 5.19.2021, BTC price first rose above the green line, market confidence warmed, and after the red line crossed above the green line, it rebounded by 37% (Figure 2). However, the early rebound was missed before the signal, and the market retreated by 16% after the signal, which did not damage the trend. Some friends in the comments questioned: If a similar situation occurs again, is a 20-30% profit worth participating? Risk and return vary from person to person; in the highly volatile crypto market, strategies seeking low-risk returns are also reasonable.
🌐 Observing the Current Cycle: On-chain and exchange data indicate that BTC is unlikely to replicate the high returns of previous cycles. The 4-year cycle may become blurred, and the future may consist of alternating "local bear markets" and "trending markets" during bull-bear transitions. Patiently waiting for the right side signal, focus on key support/resistance levels, and seize trend opportunities!

📊 BTC & ETH 1-Hour Level Analysis:
BTC: Box consolidation, no clear structural characteristics at the moment, short-term direction is uncertain.
ETH: Movement is consistent with BTC, box consolidation, lacking clear structure.
Continue to observe key support/resistance levels and wait for a breakout signal!⚡️ #BTC #ETH

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What arrangements do you all have for the Labor Day holiday?

After being busy for a few months, it's time to let the donkey take a break, right?

If you have time, during the holiday, just watch my livestream.

Thank you to the donkey in Dubai.

🔥【Daily Market Live】🔥
📈 Perfect explanation of the market, layout of the latest trends
🕒 12 hours non-stop, precise interpretation of market fluctuations
💡 **【Live Results on April 30】**💡
✅ ETH 1736 long: Accurate layout during the live broadcast, directly placed long orders, current price has reached 1800, steadily profitable!
✅ LTC 82.5 ambush long: Current price 84.4, strategy shared, friends together can earn!
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Live broadcast results on April 30:

ETH 1736 long position, directly given live long order hanging position, perfectly connected to now 1800 at night.

LTC 82.5 ambush long position, current price 84.4.

All strategies and layouts were publicly given during the live broadcast.

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🚨 #LAYER Weekly Warning: Reverse Overbought Signal Appeared, Exercise Caution! 🚨
Market Analysis: The High Risk of LAYER and Market Signals
Weekly Reverse Overbought Signal: LAYER's weekly chart shows a clear reverse overbought signal (yellow signal), which usually indicates potential pullback pressure in the short term. Risk of Contrarian Strong Players: Although some 'contrarian strong player' coins are performing well in the current market, it does not mean they are easy to trade. Even when BTC experiences a decline, the prices of these coins may rise counter to the trend, but in actual operations, they often come with significant volatility and retracement risks.
High Volatility and Market Performance
Extreme Volatility: LAYER's price volatility is extremely high, with daily fluctuations reaching over 7%, making it a high-risk trading target. Dual Pressure from Contracts and Spot: Whether in contract or spot trading, LAYER's price fluctuations may lead to traders frequently being 'shaken out,' especially during sharp price movements, where they may encounter 'meat grinder' operations at any time.
Historical and Market Comparison
Similar Historical Cases: LAYER's current market performance is similar to previous coins like AUCTION, OM, and REEF, which also experienced high volatility and high retracement characteristics at certain stages. Beware of 'Profit Taking Effect': A seemingly strong rise does not mean it is easy to go long; this market environment is more akin to a 'harvester,' especially during significant price fluctuations, where improper operations may lead to substantial losses.
Recommendations and Strategies
Exercise Caution: In light of LAYER's current market performance, traders are advised to remain vigilant, particularly avoiding blind chasing of highs or lows during periods of high price volatility. Monitor Liquidity: LAYER's high volatility may be related to insufficient market liquidity or large players manipulating the market, and traders should closely monitor changes in market liquidity to avoid being trapped. Learn from Historical Experience: By studying the upward and retracement trends of similar coins like AUCTION, OM, and REEF, traders can look for potential market patterns for LAYER to assist in decision-making.

$Alpaca × $Lto

Next step under monitoring $Lto

Both have no future lower limits and will be removed in the future

Whales will drive

Just like and share

🚀 **Bitcoin Position Trend Analysis: Top-Down Position Changes** 🚀
The current Bitcoin position trend exhibits a top-down distribution characteristic, and here are the specifics:
1️⃣ **Large-scale Investors (Positions >10K BTC)**
- The position ratio is close to its peak (about 0.95), showing that large players maintain a consistently aggressive accumulation attitude, indicating strong market demand.
2️⃣ **Medium-scale Investors (100–1K BTC and 1K–10K BTC)**
- The position ratio remains stable, maintaining between 0.8–0.9, demonstrating that medium-scale investors have confidence and stability in the market.
3️⃣ **Small-scale Investors (10–100 BTC)**
- The position ratio has shifted, gradually tending towards 0.6. This indicates that this group of investors may be adjusting strategies or reassessing market trends.
4️⃣ **Micro Investors (1–10 BTC and <1 BTC)**
- The position ratios are relatively low, at 0.3 and 0.2, respectively. This suggests that small investors may be gradually reducing their positions or observing market movements.
---
### **Summary Analysis**
The top-down position trend indicates that the market is primarily supported by large players and medium-scale investors, while small investors exhibit a more cautious attitude. This distribution may suggest that the market is undergoing a phase of accumulation, warranting continued attention to future developments.
👉 **Focus on position data, gain insights into market trends, and support precise trading!**
#Bitcoin #PositionAnalysis #TradingStrategy #Cryptocurrency #MarketTrends

🚨 **BTC Market Alert: Analysis of Short-Selling Liquidity Accumulation Points** 🚨
Currently, key points around the BTC price in the market are worth paying attention to:
- **Short-Selling Liquidity Accumulation**: The short-selling liquidity near 96500 has reached a liquidatable peak, very similar to the previous situation when it broke through 85000.
- **Liquidity Gap**: The liquidity gap in the 97k-98k range has not been fully filled, which may become an obstacle for short-term price increases.
---
### **Possible Market Directions: Two Scenarios**
1️⃣ **Scenario One: Pullback After Liquidation**
- After the macro data release, the price may experience a rapid short-term fluctuation, liquidating the short-selling liquidity above 96500.
- Subsequently, the price may pull back and re-enter the current fluctuation range.
- The distribution of new liquidity before Friday should be observed to assess whether the price can rebound.
2️⃣ **Scenario Two: Direct Pullback**
- After the macro data is announced, if the market perceives it as bearish, the price may fail to liquidate the short-selling liquidity at 96500 and begin to pull back directly.
- If the long position liquidity does not significantly increase and the leverage remains stable, the price may still challenge the short-selling liquidity at 96500 after the pullback.
---
### **Key Focus Points**
- **Macro Data**: Wednesday's small non-farm payroll and GDP, and Friday's large non-farm payroll and unemployment rate will have a huge impact on the market and may trigger a pattern of rising then falling prices.
- **Volatility Warning**: Traders are advised to remain cautious, especially before and after data releases, as prices may experience significant fluctuations.
---
### **Summary Recommendations**
The current market situation is filled with uncertainty; it is recommended to pay attention to the market response during macro data releases and closely monitor changes in liquidity distribution to avoid blind trading during volatility.
👉 **Focus on the data, prioritize caution, and seize opportunities!**
#BTC #Bitcoin #MarketAnalysis #TradingStrategy #Cryptocurrency

🚀Night live broadcast with fans earning 1000u, no profit no broadcast
🚀Night 9:30, no show no scatter
🚨Get your questions ready

$troll once again verified that you only need to watch the dealer, everything else is not important.
troll had predicted a conspiracy market at that time,
both bundling and Twitter operations are very skilled, old dev entrepreneurship,
the given summary categorization is the key focus
⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

Unfortunately, it still failed to achieve the unity of knowledge and action.
Already washed off the car long ago.
😂

$dark I'll say it one last time, I won't mention it again, it's annoying to bring it up every day. The large interval is still fluctuating in this channel, with the key position at 0.02.

This coin is something I've always wanted to talk about; it's washing the previous leaderboard.
These few are not the ones in control, but they are overconfident, thinking that the ones in control will help them.
At 0.04, they have already made a profit of over 1M. If they push it up further, it will disrupt the rhythm of the ones in control and become an obstacle to the push. The reason it can't break through the 0.04 position several times is mainly due to this factor.

During the live broadcast, BTC was aggressively present, with a maximum of 95100