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Yesterday I wrote that the market has a large number of open shorts on #BTC , especially in the 96,000–97,500 USD range. The market typically seeks to clear this liquidity — meaning triggering the stop-losses of short sellers.
We saw a fakeout to the downside yesterday, which invited more short positions — many traders were expecting a correction ahead of the upcoming FED decision. Today’s move upward is, in my view, not a sign of strength but a calculated short squeeze.
Once that excess short pressure is removed, I expect a sharp drop toward the 90,000–92,000 USD zone, where #Bitcoin will likely consolidate until May 7, when the Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision. Only after that event do I anticipate a bullish breakout and continuation of the upward trend, especially if the Fed’s tone is dovish or neutral.
Why this scenario makes sense:
• Coinglass heatmaps show large short liquidation clusters above — a clear target before any drop.
• Positive funding and rising open interest suggest the price is being pushed up artificially before a correction.
• Market psychology: many traders shorted too early — this leads to a squeeze, followed by a strong drop that also takes out late longs entering out of FOMO.
• Historically, before key FOMC events, markets tend to consolidate lower due to uncertainty.
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Summary:
This rally looks more like a short squeeze than real strength. I expect BTC to drop toward 90–92k and stay there until May 7. The real upside move may come only after the Fed decision.
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Follow my profile to stay updated with my real-time observations, analyses, and market insights on #Bitcoin and more.
If you found this post helpful, feel free to like or comment — it motivates me to keep sharing live updates.
#BTC #BitcoinAnalysis #FedWatch #tradingstrategy
We saw a fakeout to the downside yesterday, which invited more short positions — many traders were expecting a correction ahead of the upcoming FED decision. Today’s move upward is, in my view, not a sign of strength but a calculated short squeeze.
Once that excess short pressure is removed, I expect a sharp drop toward the 90,000–92,000 USD zone, where #Bitcoin will likely consolidate until May 7, when the Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision. Only after that event do I anticipate a bullish breakout and continuation of the upward trend, especially if the Fed’s tone is dovish or neutral.
Why this scenario makes sense:
• Coinglass heatmaps show large short liquidation clusters above — a clear target before any drop.
• Positive funding and rising open interest suggest the price is being pushed up artificially before a correction.
• Market psychology: many traders shorted too early — this leads to a squeeze, followed by a strong drop that also takes out late longs entering out of FOMO.
• Historically, before key FOMC events, markets tend to consolidate lower due to uncertainty.
⸻
Summary:
This rally looks more like a short squeeze than real strength. I expect BTC to drop toward 90–92k and stay there until May 7. The real upside move may come only after the Fed decision.
⸻
Follow my profile to stay updated with my real-time observations, analyses, and market insights on #Bitcoin and more.
If you found this post helpful, feel free to like or comment — it motivates me to keep sharing live updates.
#BTC #BitcoinAnalysis #FedWatch #tradingstrategy
The Fed interest rate decision is approaching on May 7. Historically, prices tend to drop before the announcement due to market uncertainty.
However, looking at the heatmap from Coinglass, we can see large liquidation zones just above current price levels (especially around $96,000 – $97,600). Price may attempt to sweep those areas before reversing downward.
After the decision itself, I expect a bullish move, potentially towards the $98,000–99,000 region, especially if the Fed signals dovish or neutral tone.
Watch for price reaction in that zone – it could become a strong resistance or a breakout trigger.
My take: Be cautious with premature shorts. This is the kind of setup where the market fakes one direction to hunt liquidity, then reverses hard.
#BTC
However, looking at the heatmap from Coinglass, we can see large liquidation zones just above current price levels (especially around $96,000 – $97,600). Price may attempt to sweep those areas before reversing downward.
After the decision itself, I expect a bullish move, potentially towards the $98,000–99,000 region, especially if the Fed signals dovish or neutral tone.
Watch for price reaction in that zone – it could become a strong resistance or a breakout trigger.
My take: Be cautious with premature shorts. This is the kind of setup where the market fakes one direction to hunt liquidity, then reverses hard.
#BTC
See original
Ascending wedge, which statistically often ends with a breakdown, which favors shorts. 🐻
#BTC probably needs a correction to 'shake out' weak hands from the market before moving higher.
What this means:
• The price is already touching the lower edge of the wedge, which could be the breakout moment. Breaking through the level of about 94,400 will confirm the bearish signal.
• SL at 95,500 — a reasonable level placed above the last peak and the upper line of the wedge. It protects against typical fakeouts. If the price returns above this level, the short scenario becomes invalid.
• TP at 92,100 — logical, as it is the lower support zone where large clusters of liquidation are visible (according to the heatmap). In my opinion, the price should reach there to 'clear out' FOMO players who entered yesterday and today hoping for further uninterrupted growth.
#BTC probably needs a correction to 'shake out' weak hands from the market before moving higher.
What this means:
• The price is already touching the lower edge of the wedge, which could be the breakout moment. Breaking through the level of about 94,400 will confirm the bearish signal.
• SL at 95,500 — a reasonable level placed above the last peak and the upper line of the wedge. It protects against typical fakeouts. If the price returns above this level, the short scenario becomes invalid.
• TP at 92,100 — logical, as it is the lower support zone where large clusters of liquidation are visible (according to the heatmap). In my opinion, the price should reach there to 'clear out' FOMO players who entered yesterday and today hoping for further uninterrupted growth.
The current move is just a complex correction, not the start of a bear market.
BTC Bear Market Cycle Thesis‼️
$BTC
In real-time analysis, the likelihood of a bear market scenario still remains very low, primarily due to one key factor: depth and time of the macro degrees.#BTC has never started a bear market with a diagonal. Most of the bear markets have started their actionary waves (1 or A) with a sharp blow-off top. For now, the move down was met with incredible resilience and controlled overlapping waves making it more evident as a complex correction.
FOLLOW @Lala_Crypto For more insights and future signals, check out my Bio and tune into my Binance live stream for real-time analysis and updates!
For a true bear market to truly unfold, it would likely require a complex corrective structure (WXY) to generate the necessary depth and momentum.
A simple zigzag (ABC) pattern, as shown, will most likely lack the capacity to produce any achievable depth to be considered a bear market.
#BinanceHODLerHYPER #BinanceAlphaAlert #USChinaTensions #BTCRebound
In real-time analysis, the likelihood of a bear market scenario still remains very low, primarily due to one key factor: depth and time of the macro degrees.#BTC has never started a bear market with a diagonal. Most of the bear markets have started their actionary waves (1 or A) with a sharp blow-off top. For now, the move down was met with incredible resilience and controlled overlapping waves making it more evident as a complex correction.
FOLLOW @Lala_Crypto For more insights and future signals, check out my Bio and tune into my Binance live stream for real-time analysis and updates!
For a true bear market to truly unfold, it would likely require a complex corrective structure (WXY) to generate the necessary depth and momentum.
A simple zigzag (ABC) pattern, as shown, will most likely lack the capacity to produce any achievable depth to be considered a bear market.
#BinanceHODLerHYPER #BinanceAlphaAlert #USChinaTensions #BTCRebound
Unfortunately, it looks like this decline will be even deeper.$BTC 📉
If you look at the 5-year BTC price chart, you can find a similarity in 2021 when the price fell from its highest point by about 50%.
A drop from $63,949 to $31,861. Bitcoin then remained in a hole looking for a bottom for the entire month.📆
Transferring this similarity to the situation we have today, we can expect a drop from $110,000 to $55,000. This would also mean that the entire month of March BTC will remain low, fluctuating in price by a few percent up and down.⬆️⬇️⬆️⬇️
Going further, we should expect a breakout and a return of the price to $110,000 or higher only in April.🚀🚀🚀
Share your opinion with me in the comments.
Do you think this scenario will come true?
If you look at the 5-year BTC price chart, you can find a similarity in 2021 when the price fell from its highest point by about 50%.
A drop from $63,949 to $31,861. Bitcoin then remained in a hole looking for a bottom for the entire month.📆
Transferring this similarity to the situation we have today, we can expect a drop from $110,000 to $55,000. This would also mean that the entire month of March BTC will remain low, fluctuating in price by a few percent up and down.⬆️⬇️⬆️⬇️
Going further, we should expect a breakout and a return of the price to $110,000 or higher only in April.🚀🚀🚀
Share your opinion with me in the comments.
Do you think this scenario will come true?
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You can plan... The market will verify it. There is still a deeper hole missing before everything really goes up again. I think that everything will light up red for you soon.
The day before yesterday I entered longs. I think it was the best time according to my analyses. My total margin is 4300$ , which is why I do not show the liquidation price yet.
These are longs played in the medium term for the cyclicality of the bull market. I plan to realize profits in March or April.
These are longs played in the medium term for the cyclicality of the bull market. I plan to realize profits in March or April.
Close it. All market will go down soon.
I stucked in long position what should I do ?
hold or close...
hold or close...
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