大兵言币

August Major Events Calendar!!!#美国加征关税

Altcoins: High Risk Characteristics Highlighted, It's Best to Wait with No Positions

Recently, altcoins have continued the pattern of 'lagging in recovery and leading in decline.' When a pullback signal appears, one must decisively exit the market. The core logic is as follows:

The high-risk asset nature determines that its volatility far exceeds that of mainstream coins when the market turns. Holding onto trapped coins (especially small altcoins) makes it difficult to break even; in a rotating market, the maximum increase for altcoins is usually 50%-100%. Without a trading strategy, simply holding will only miss out on new opportunities. Currently, risk-averse sentiment in capital is rising, and institutions prefer to hold assets with strong compliance like BTC and ETH, while altcoins lack incremental capital support.

It is recommended to stay out of the market and wait for market sentiment to stabilize and clear buy signals to appear before positioning, with a priority on compliant sectors and strong popular coins. #美国加征关税

ETH Technical Aspect: Triple Top Pattern Emerges, Short-term Adjustment Pressure Intensifies
Trend Analysis
Monthly Characteristics: July closed with a small upper shadow line, rising by 48.8%. Although it maintains a bullish trend, it has touched the triple top resistance area (connecting the previous two high points), caution is needed for the formation of a top pattern; Daily Signal: The last three candlesticks formed a 'three consecutive downs with upper shadows' combination, indicating a significant weakening of bullish momentum. Yesterday's high attempt fell below the moving average support, confirming a short-term peak; Volume Verification: The trend of shrinking volume during the rise and increasing volume during the decline continues, showing that funds are actively leaving the market, which is consistent with the typical characteristics of a top-side fluctuation retreat.
Support and Action Plan
Key Support: $3400 is where the 30-day moving average is located; if maintained, it indicates a healthy adjustment. If broken, the focus shifts to the $3200-$3000 platform; 4-hour Rhythm: After testing $3860 twice yesterday, it experienced four consecutive downs, with a spike in the morning closing positively. There may be a rebound in the Asian session, but the space is limited;

Intraday Strategy: Mainly short positions, with shorting opportunities in the upper resistance area of $3730-$3760, and attention to the support around $3630-$3600 below. #加密市场回调

BTC Technical Analysis: Bears Dominate After Box Break
Key Signal Analysis
Monthly Warning: July closed with a long upper shadow bullish candle, with the shadow equal to the body, indicating weak upward momentum, a typical signal of “high position stagnation”; Daily Breakdown: Yesterday surged but closed with a large bearish candle, opening below the 30-day moving average, and breaking below the recent oscillation box bottom of 116K USD, structurally confirming bear dominance; Volume Divergence: During the high oscillation period, the characteristics of “rising with decreasing volume, falling with increasing volume” are evident, with the declining volume expanding continuously over the past four days, while the weekend rebound with reduced volume failed to continue, reflecting weak bullish counterattack willingness.
Driving Factors and Operational Strategy
The hotter July PCE data strengthened short-term high interest rate expectations, combined with frequent large BTC transfers on-chain (suspected institutional rebalancing and selling), jointly suppressing the price.

4-Hour Trend: After continuous volume decline, a pin bar appeared, with a slight rebound expected in the Asian session, but it is difficult to change the weak trend;

Intraday Strategy: The upper range of 116K-117K USD is a key resistance area, and a short position can be arranged; the initial support is at 114.5K USD, with a further downward target of 113K USD. #加密市场回调

Last night was the 10th anniversary live stream of Ethereum, and the 10th anniversary commemorative NFT was launched, available for a limited time. There are less than 8 hours left to claim it. Regardless of whether it will appreciate in value in the future, claim it first and talk later. If you don't know how to claim it, contact me, and I will teach you how to do it #以太坊十周年

ETH: The bullish structure has not been broken, but we need to guard against the "upper shadow risk" on the monthly line.
The daily moving averages are well-aligned in a bullish formation, and there has been no deep correction in the past month, indicating strong bullish control. However, the characteristics of "volume contraction during price increases and volume expansion during corrections" in the past ten days expose short-term profit-taking pressure. After briefly breaking the 14-day moving average yesterday, it quickly rebounded and regained its position above the 7-day moving average, showing a strong technical outlook.

What needs to be cautious is: the monthly line is currently operating with a 55% large bullish candlestick and is at a key position of the "triple top formation." If today's monthly line closes with a long upper shadow, it may indicate the formation of a short-term top. The 4-hour line rebound is approaching previous highs, while the 1-hour line shows signs of stagnation. For today, the pressure is seen at 3880-3920, and support is seen at 3740-3780. #白宫数字资产报告

BTC: The range game is reaching its conclusion, volume is the key
After the Federal Reserve meeting, Bitcoin briefly broke below the 116K support level. It later rebounded due to remarks from Trump easing tariffs, closing the day with a long lower shadow, indicating that buying interest remains around 116K. Currently, it is still in a high-level range between 116K and 120K, with the MA30 moving average extending upward to 116K. The deviation risk between the candlestick and the moving average has been corrected, and the sideways period is nearing its end.

Key signals: The continuous shrinkage of trading volume reflects that off-site funds are on the sidelines, and we need to wait for a “breakout above 120K with volume” or a “breakdown below 116K with volume” to confirm the direction. The 4-hour chart rebounded after briefly breaking below in the early morning, but the volume was insufficient, raising doubts about the sustainability of the rebound. Day trading focuses on shorting opportunities at the 119K-120K resistance level, with support levels to watch at 116K-117K. #美联储利率决议

Federal Reserve Decision Outlook: No Interest Rate Cut This Week, Policy Turning Point Expected Around Autumn.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce its interest rate decision at 2:00 AM Beijing time on Thursday, followed by a press conference with Fed Chairman Powell 30 minutes later. Although significant policy decisions are unlikely, this week's meeting is still full of highlights. Waller and Bowman may cast 'no' votes on maintaining the federal funds rate in the 4.25%-4.5% range, and this meeting is the first since Trump's historic visit to the Federal Reserve construction site and the ensuing controversy over cost overruns. This makes delaying an interest rate cut more difficult to justify, and Trump's calls for substantial easing complicate the backdrop. Stay tuned for the meeting's aftermath; the next market surge is just around the corner! #美联储利率决议即将公布

There are 3870 nearby to sell, then go short

Altcoins: It is recommended to stay in cash and observe to wait for a new round of certain opportunities.

Altcoin Market: Decreased activity, high short-term speculation risk.
Bitcoin's high-level fluctuations have triggered short-term profit-taking and a wait-and-see sentiment. The activity of Ethereum and altcoins has also declined, indicating that major funds have not yet entered the market on a large scale.
Recently, most altcoins have shown a second dip in daily charts, but the trading volume has not increased, reflecting insufficient willingness from major players to build positions. Hot sectors such as AI, staking, and RWA frequently exhibit "sharp rises followed by rapid declines," which is a typical "inducing long positions and washing out" behavior. Moreover, most cryptocurrencies are still under pressure from downtrend lines, and bulls have not broken through key resistance levels.
The characteristics of funds show a "wait-and-see" state, with short-term speculation leading to rapid switching of heat, lacking sustained market support. Currently, altcoins are not a long-term holding value target, and quick in-and-out operations are needed. However, considering the low profit-taking effect and the expanded risk exposure, it is advisable to stay in cash and observe to wait for a new round of certain opportunities.
#山寨

ETH: Strong momentum reveals divergence, volume-price divergence warns of trend reversal risk
Ethereum maintains strong momentum but has entered a short-term resistance zone, with consecutive bullish candles followed by a slight adjustment on reduced volume, situated at the critical point of a battle between 'trend continuation' and 'trend reversal'. In recent days, the price increase has been accompanied by decreasing volume, forming a typical volume-price divergence, signaling a potential trend change.
Key subsequent levels: If volume breaks through the 4000 round number (significantly increased volume is required), it could open up the upper space and continue the upward attack;
If volume breaks below the 3700 support, the short-term bullish structure will be damaged.
After a period of consolidation and decline on the 4-hour chart, a rebound occurred near the 3700 mark during the US trading session, forming three consecutive bullish candles, and may continue to rebound in the Asian session.
For intraday operations, key resistance is focused on the 3860-3900 level above, while key support is focused on the 3750-3710 level below. #以太坊十周年

BTC: High-level fluctuations await resolution, volume-price divergence hides the risk of a trend reversal
Yesterday's movement completely met expectations: After multiple touches on the 119K resistance level during the European session, the US session saw a drop below the 117K support, with the daily line still oscillating within the 116K-120K high-level range. However, due to the prolonged sideways movement, the original upward trend line (blue line) has been damaged.
Volume characteristics indicate that after a significant increase in volume in early to mid-July, there has been a continuous decrease in volume during the recent sideways movement, highlighting an increasing cautious sentiment among investors — this pattern of high-level stagnation accompanied by decreasing volume is typically a signal before a trend reversal.
Subsequent key signals: A bullish breakout requires: a daily volume breakout above 120K and a close with a solid bullish candle;
A bearish breakout requires: a daily volume drop below 116K and a close with a solid bearish candle.
This signal will directly determine the market direction in August. After dipping to 117K in the US session, the 4-hour line rebounded, forming a triple long lower shadow bullish candle, and the Asian session may continue the rebound.
For intraday operations, continue to focus on short opportunities at the upper 119K-120K resistance level and pay close attention to the 117K-116K support level below. #BTC走势分析

July 30th, Contract Operation Ideas!!! #以太坊十周年