1. Fundamentals: Tariff extension and stablecoin compliance become market focus

  1. Trump's tariff policy extended for another week
    The reciprocal tariff policy, originally scheduled to take effect on August 1st, has been delayed until August 7th. Tariffs ranging from 15% to 41% will be imposed on 67 trading partners, the highest level in over a century. This adjustment has eased market panic in the short term, but the long-term expectation of rising global trade costs remains, which may suppress the valuation of risky assets.

  2. Hong Kong (Stablecoin Ordinance) officially takes effect
    Starting August 1, the issuance and circulation of stablecoins in Hong Kong will be subject to a strong regulatory framework, marking a key step in China's financial system's exploration of compliance in the crypto sector. The regulations clearly require:

    • Stablecoins must be pegged 1:1 to the Hong Kong dollar or other fiat currencies, and the reserve assets must be real, auditable, and redeemable daily;

    • Issuers must meet all-dimensional compliance requirements, including corporate governance, risk control, and network security;

    • The unlicensed issuance and promotion of stablecoins is prohibited.
      The market interprets this as the start of the construction of the "East Asian Crypto Compliance Port", and in the future "compliant stablecoin + cross-border payment" may become the new narrative line.

2. BTC Technical Analysis: Shorts Dominate After Breaking the Box

Key signal analysis

  • Monthly chart warning: July closed with a long upper shadow bullish candlestick, with the shadow equal to the body, indicating weak upward momentum, a typical "high-level stagflation" signal;

  • Daily chart breakout: After yesterday's surge, the market closed with a large real black candlestick, opening below the 30-day moving average and breaking below the bottom of the recent oscillation box at $116K, confirming the dominance of the short position.

  • Divergence of volume: During the period of high-level fluctuations, the characteristics of "shrinking volume on rise and expanding volume on fall" are obvious. The falling volume has continued to expand in the past four days, while the rebound with shrinking volume over the weekend failed to continue, reflecting the weak willingness of the bulls to fight back.

Driving factors and operating strategies

The relatively hot PCE data in July reinforced expectations of high short-term interest rates. Coupled with the frequent large-scale BTC transfers on the chain (suspected institutional portfolio adjustments and selling), these data jointly suppressed prices.


  • 4-hour trend: After a continuous decline in large volume, there is a spike. There may be a small rebound in the Asian session, but it is difficult to change the weakness;

  • Intraday strategy: USD 116K-117K is the key resistance zone above, and you can take the opportunity to arrange short orders; the support below is initially at USD 114.5K, and the further downward target is USD 113K.

ETH Technical Analysis: A Triple Top Appears, Intensifying Short-Term Adjustment Pressure

Trend Analysis

  • Monthly chart features: July closed with a small upper shadow, with a 48.8% increase. Although the bullish trend is maintained, it has touched the triple top pressure zone (connecting the two previous high points), so we need to be vigilant about the formation of a top pattern.

  • Daily signal: The last three K-lines formed a "three consecutive black lines with upper shadows" combination, and the bullish momentum has weakened significantly. Yesterday's high fell back below the moving average support, confirming that the short-term peak has been reached;

  • Volume verification: The trend of shrinking volume when prices rise and increasing volume when prices fall continues, indicating that funds are actively leaving the market, which is in line with the typical characteristics of a top-down oscillation and decline.

Support and Operations Plan

  • Key support: $3,400 is the 30-day moving average. If it holds, it will be a healthy correction; if it falls below, the market will fall to the $3,200-3,000 range.

  • 4-hour rhythm: After testing $3860 twice yesterday, the market fell for four consecutive days, and closed with a positive sign in the morning. The Asian session may rebound, but the space is limited;

  • Intraday strategy: Mainly high-altitude, short selling is possible in the upper pressure zone of $3730-3760, and pay attention to the support of $3630-3600 below.

4. Altcoins: High-risk characteristics are prominent, so it is best to wait and see.

Recently, altcoins have continued to follow the pattern of "lagging in rebound and leading in decline." When a pullback signal appears, it is important to exit the market decisively. The core logic is:


  • The high-risk nature of assets means that their volatility far exceeds that of mainstream currencies when the market turns. Holding on to trapped currencies (especially small altcoins) is difficult to recoup;

  • During a round of market fluctuations, the maximum increase in altcoins is usually 50%-100%. Holding on to them without a trading strategy will only lead to missing out on new opportunities.

  • The current risk aversion sentiment among funds is rising, and institutions are more inclined to hold highly compliant assets such as BTC and ETH, leaving altcoins lacking incremental capital support.


It is recommended to continue to hold short positions and wait and see, and then make arrangements after market sentiment stabilizes and clear buying signals appear, giving priority to compliant tracks and strong popular currencies.


Risk Warning: The cryptocurrency market fluctuates drastically. The above analysis is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Please be cautious when entering the market.