BTC Technical Analysis: Bears Dominate After Box Break

Key Signal Analysis

Monthly Warning: July closed with a long upper shadow bullish candle, with the shadow equal to the body, indicating weak upward momentum, a typical signal of “high position stagnation”; Daily Breakdown: Yesterday surged but closed with a large bearish candle, opening below the 30-day moving average, and breaking below the recent oscillation box bottom of 116K USD, structurally confirming bear dominance; Volume Divergence: During the high oscillation period, the characteristics of “rising with decreasing volume, falling with increasing volume” are evident, with the declining volume expanding continuously over the past four days, while the weekend rebound with reduced volume failed to continue, reflecting weak bullish counterattack willingness.

Driving Factors and Operational Strategy

The hotter July PCE data strengthened short-term high interest rate expectations, combined with frequent large BTC transfers on-chain (suspected institutional rebalancing and selling), jointly suppressing the price.

4-Hour Trend: After continuous volume decline, a pin bar appeared, with a slight rebound expected in the Asian session, but it is difficult to change the weak trend;

Intraday Strategy: The upper range of 116K-117K USD is a key resistance area, and a short position can be arranged; the initial support is at 114.5K USD, with a further downward target of 113K USD. #加密市场回调