铭泽-财富圈
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2025.11.04 Bitcoin fluctuates and falls, has the big waterfall not really arrived? #加密市场回调
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Interpretation of this bull-bear cycle
This Friday, the last day of October, closes the month. Once this month line appears, does it feel a bit cold at a high place, with a chilling sensation all over?
There are only two months left in 25 years, and the probability of 126,200 forming the top of this bull market is getting higher. Assuming that 126,200 is the top of this bull market, then Bitcoin will enter a bear market for a period of time.
We observe the regularity from the trend of the Bitcoin monthly K-line. First, from the perspective of the time cycle, after the peak of Bitcoin in December 2017, Bitcoin maintained a bear market for 13 months before hitting the bottom, and the market did not start to explore the bottom until February 19. In the first half of 2019, a small bull market emerged and peaked in June of the same year, after which the market entered a 9-month bear market until it bottomed out on March 12-13, 2020. The small bull market cycle of Bitcoin in 2019 lasted only 5 months, and it did not create a new high, which can only be seen as the market's second impact on the high point of the 2017 bull market being blocked, and overall it still belongs to the prelude of the big bull market from 2020 to 2021.
There are only two months left in 25 years, and the probability of 126,200 forming the top of this bull market is getting higher. Assuming that 126,200 is the top of this bull market, then Bitcoin will enter a bear market for a period of time.
We observe the regularity from the trend of the Bitcoin monthly K-line. First, from the perspective of the time cycle, after the peak of Bitcoin in December 2017, Bitcoin maintained a bear market for 13 months before hitting the bottom, and the market did not start to explore the bottom until February 19. In the first half of 2019, a small bull market emerged and peaked in June of the same year, after which the market entered a 9-month bear market until it bottomed out on March 12-13, 2020. The small bull market cycle of Bitcoin in 2019 lasted only 5 months, and it did not create a new high, which can only be seen as the market's second impact on the high point of the 2017 bull market being blocked, and overall it still belongs to the prelude of the big bull market from 2020 to 2021.
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Technically, Bitcoin 116,000--116,400 remains a short-term resistance. After the Federal Reserve's decision in the evening, Bitcoin may experience fluctuations as long as it does not stay above 116,000. The range of 115,000--116,000 could be a relatively high-value short opportunity, with a maximum stop-loss at 116,400. If the market fails to hold above 110,000 in the short term, it may fluctuate down to the range of 105,000--102,000. #加密市场回调 #美联储降息预期 #比特币走势分析
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Latest market information, the Federal Reserve has clarified the interest rate cut time for October 2025. On October 29 local time, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce its interest rate decision, and the market widely expects a 25 basis point cut, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate from 4.00%-4.25% to 3.75%-4.00%.
The decision results will be officially announced at 2 AM Beijing time on October 30.
This rate cut is mainly based on signals of a weak labor market, including only 22,000 new non-farm jobs in August, an unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, and the ratio of job vacancies to unemployed persons falling to the critical level of 1.0. Although the core PCE inflation in September remains high at 2.9%, the Federal Reserve is more concerned about the downside risks to employment, defining this adjustment as "risk management-style rate cut."
It is noteworthy that there are policy differences within the Federal Reserve: among the 19 officials, just over half support two more rate cuts within the year, while 7 officials oppose further easing. Market pricing indicates that the probability of continuing a 25 basis point cut in December has reached 84%, reflecting expectations for the continuation of the easing cycle.
#内容挖矿升级 #加密市场回调 #美联储降息预期
The decision results will be officially announced at 2 AM Beijing time on October 30.
This rate cut is mainly based on signals of a weak labor market, including only 22,000 new non-farm jobs in August, an unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, and the ratio of job vacancies to unemployed persons falling to the critical level of 1.0. Although the core PCE inflation in September remains high at 2.9%, the Federal Reserve is more concerned about the downside risks to employment, defining this adjustment as "risk management-style rate cut."
It is noteworthy that there are policy differences within the Federal Reserve: among the 19 officials, just over half support two more rate cuts within the year, while 7 officials oppose further easing. Market pricing indicates that the probability of continuing a 25 basis point cut in December has reached 84%, reflecting expectations for the continuation of the easing cycle.
#内容挖矿升级 #加密市场回调 #美联储降息预期
🎙️ 聊聊降息！大盘还能涨多久？后续该如何操作？
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01 h 22 m 21 s
72
MOVE/USDT
Limit/Sell
Filled
🎙️ 百亿学宫:主播孵化、解币、戒爆、币圈的稷下学宫柏拉图学院黄埔保定军校……
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03 h 56 m 57 s
24.1k
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October 25, 2025, interest rate cut is imminent, the market direction has reached a critical moment, how should we respond? #加密市场反弹 #美联储降息预期 #比特币ETF恢复净流入
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币圈王百亿
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一路走来，都是朋友和师长！
🎙️ 百亿学宫:主播孵化、解币、戒爆、币圈的稷下学宫柏拉图学院黄埔保定军校……
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03 h 13 m 44 s
20.7k
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Is the rebound after the Bitcoin crash on 2025.10.19 the last chance to escape?
#美财政部比特币战略储备激增 #加密市场回调 #
#美财政部比特币战略储备激增 #加密市场回调 #
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BTC: The height of the rebounds in the current 1-hour K-line period, 113600, 112500, and 11000, is getting lower. In the short term, the trend is still a fluctuating downward movement, consolidating in the 107000-109000 range. Stabilization still needs to wait.
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