Key Price Structure 1. Immediate Support: $0.533 (recent breakout followed by a retest confirmation level, coinciding with a volume concentration area) 2. Secondary Defensive Zone: $0.47–0.45 (structural accumulation range, supporting the momentum of the previous wedge breakout) 3. Stop-Loss Line: $0.42 (if breached, the technical pattern fails, strict risk control needed) 4. Upper Resistance: $0.619 → $0.70 (breakout initiates accelerated market trend)
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Ethereum Correlation Logic - ETH Key Threshold: $3,700–$3,800 serves as the macro bull-bear divide; stabilization activates Altcoin risk appetite - Correlation Verification: Historical data shows that after ETH breaks $3,800, high Beta assets (like ENA) average excess returns of 35%+ - Hedging Strategy: If ETH loses $3,600, synchronize and delay ENA accumulation plan
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Position Management Suggestions | Price Range | Operation | Position Ratio | Target | |------------------|------------------------|----------------|--------------| | $0.53 + ETH > $3,700 | Initial Position Entry | ≤20% | Increase position at breakout of $0.62 | | $0.47–0.45 | Gradual Accumulation (Left Side) | 30%–40% | Cut by half at rebound to $0.55 | | <$0.42 | Stop-Loss Exit | - | Restart after pattern recovery |
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Core Drivers and Risk Alerts - Catalysts: ✅ USDtb compliant stablecoin Q3 launch (backed by GENIUS Act) ✅ Daily $5 million token buyback continues until September (circulation shrinks by 8%) ✅ USDe market cap surpasses $700 million, annualized yield anchored at 10%+ - Risk Warnings: ⚠️ Early August $686 million token unlock (accounting for 23% of circulation) ⚠️ RSI short-term oversold (29) but not at bottom; need to guard against downward inertia
Intraday Operating Logic 1. Bullish Layout - When the price stabilizes above 117,300, tactical long positions can be established - Target Range: 118500 - 119200-120500 (Previous High Resistance Area) - Stop Loss Reference: Effectively breaking below 116,800 (Hourly Chart Close Below)
2. Bearish Trigger Conditions - Only when the price touches the range of 120,300-120,500 and a triple signal resonance occurs: ∙ K-Line Stagnation Pattern (Long Upper Shadow/Cloud Cover) ∙ RSI > 70 + MACD Histogram Divergence ∙ Rapid Increase in Hourly Volume Followed by Quick Shrinkage - Otherwise, avoid counter-trend operations, structural bullishness remains intact
Trend Structure and Risk Control Points - Macro Form: Weekly Level Maintains Upward Channel, Short-term Strong Volatility Correction - Volatility Characteristics: ∙ Volatility Contraction (Bollinger Band Width < 3.5%) ∙ Avoid chasing breakouts before effectively breaking previous highs - Position Strategy: ∙ Focus on Low Longs at the Range Lower Edge, Single Trade Risk < 1.5% ∙ Small Time Frame (Below 15 Minutes) Signals Need to be Confirmed by 4-Hour Chart
> **Note**: Closely monitor the CME futures gap (118,200) during the US trading session, if it does not break through 119,500 with volume before the European session, some bulls may choose to take profits.
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Key Data Support | Indicator | Value/Status | Signal Meaning | |------------------|------------------|------------------------| | ADX | 28 (4H Chart) | Trend Strength Neutral | | Futures Funding Rate | +0.012% | Bullish Leverage Controllable | | Large On-chain Transfers | 3 transactions > 5,000 BTC into Exchanges | Potential Selling Pressure Warning |
The strategy balances technical structure and market microstructure, it is recommended to dynamically adjust risk control in conjunction with CME opening time (Beijing Time 20:30).
$ETH Emphasized buying more in the last two days Now the structure has formed
This might be the last push before another takeoff Recent support is at 3720 If it goes down, pay attention to 3680-3600-3570 Be patient, big movements should happen tomorrow night If there's a good position, go in; if not, it's okay to wait #以太坊交易量反超比特币
Morning long positions have all been exited Ethereum has taken a big gain Bitcoin and bonk have cost losses
Since Bitcoin insists on going down This time I won't catch at 115 It may need to spike down to 113
Ethereum is being observed around 2520 Altcoins can be ignored for now Need to pay attention to the preferred option $ENA This one really has some substance #GalaxyDigital抛售比特币
Pancake and bonk eat up, push cost Partial take profit for $ETH and $ENA , start moving stop loss Move Ethereum to 3660, move ena to 51 Ethereum is awesome, held up a sky in the afternoon #GalaxyDigital抛售比特币 Click to follow for real-time analysis and trading
According to the plan, go in with the main warehouse, if it dies, it dies But to be honest, the market is very unstable Don't go too heavy, set good stop losses Even if this position is wrong, you still have to take a shot #以太坊交易量反超比特币
A few days ago, risk was already highlighted Big brother is about to explode
What was unexpected Is that big brother beat up second brother and third brother But himself is still fine
Talking about technicals is not interesting Just to say one thing Without that peak Institutions were standing guard at high positions Small investors and big holders escaped
Then focus on the big pie and go long No matter if it's the last wave There should still be a surge But abandon the mindset of 'chasing' #美国AI行动计划
$WIF Pancake breakout, above 12 Little hat dog above 13.2 Chase the wrong, must chase Once it's a real breakout Completely break the bull-bear line The space is vast and boundless
#山寨季來了? Follow me, and the wealth code will naturally come
$BTC After the ancient fossil hands Major cycle players are selling off Mainstream coins are linked with stocks Absorbing off-site funds, stepping on the left foot and pulling up with the right foot Then all stocks and coins are sold off
Wall Street knows how to play
There should be one last wave of frenzy Then it will be a mess
$BTC There is a feeling, if the big pie can't stabilize at 12 today there might be a major wash As it stands now everyone is following the big pie almost all reached the ultimate pressure point
Could it be that we can work together to create a new era The dog fund wouldn't be so kind, right?
$PENGU This round's zoo director Together with $DOGE , one of the two ETF expectation memes Let's do it, imitation is just strong This position is also easy to stop loss #山寨币突破