Maple短线交易者

6.17 21:32 #eth# trend analysis

From the current 15-minute K-line view, the price is in a narrow fluctuation stage after a decline, with a short-term trend leaning towards weak consolidation:

Technical Analysis: The K-line pattern shows no obvious reversal signals, the MACD histogram continues to narrow (bearish strength is weak), and although the KDJ indicator is overbought, it has not formed a golden cross.

Trading Volume: After a recent increase in volume and a decline, the trading volume has contracted during the fluctuations, the selling pressure has not yet been fully released, but the new selling momentum is also insufficient.

Key Levels: Watch for support at 2546.00 (previous low) below, and resistance at 2562.69 (current minor platform pressure) above.

In the next 45 minutes, it is highly likely to continue weak fluctuations or a slight decline: if it breaks below the 2546 support, it may test the 2530 - 2540 range; if it holds the support, it may fluctuate narrowly between 2546 - 2563, with little chance of a strong rebound (lack of volume buying signals).

Short-term Trading (Ultra-short speculation)

Conditions for Going Long: If the price breaks through the 2563 resistance with increased volume and confirms support on a pullback, a light long position can be taken, targeting 2570 - 2580 (quick take profit, no lingering).

Conditions for Going Short: If it breaks below the 2546 support with increased volume (confirming effective breakdown), a light short position can be taken, targeting 2535 - 2530 (similarly, quick in and out).

Conditions for Watching: If it maintains a narrow fluctuation between 2546 - 2563 without a clear breakthrough or breakdown signal, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines to avoid stop-losses in a fluctuating market.

Stop-loss Settings: Long Stop-loss: below 2560 (failure to hold the breakout point on a pullback), or a loss exceeding 2% - 3% of the opening amount;
Short Stop-loss: reclaiming 2550 (rebound recapturing the key level after breakdown), or a loss exceeding 2% - 3% of the opening amount.

Position Management: For ultra-short trades, position size ≤ 10% of total funds to avoid significant losses due to fluctuations or sudden volatility.
Emotion Management: Strictly execute the strategy, do not blindly bottom-fish or chase prices, in a fluctuating market “operate less, observe more.”

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and the 45-minute ultra-short prediction has high uncertainty, requiring real-time market dynamics for adjustments. Investment should be cautious, and it is recommended to use small funds for trial and error, prioritizing the safety of principal.

6.17 12:54$ETH Trend Analysis

I. Trend Prediction

From the 15-minute level, the price surged to 2680 before significantly retreating. Although there was a slight rebound, the short-term moving averages (such as MA7) are still pressing down, and the overall situation is in a correction phase leaning towards bearish. If there is no rapid breakthrough of the short-term moving average pressure (currently MA7 is about 2600.61), it is likely to continue the oscillation and retreat; if it can break through the moving average pressure with volume, there may be a minor rebound, but the major trend needs to be confirmed with a larger cycle (such as 1 hour, 4 hours). Currently, the short-term bearish momentum still holds the dominant position.

II. Support Levels

1. First Support Level: 2524.00 (24-hour low price, previously supported and rebounded during the intraday decline, it is a key psychological and actual support in the short term).

2. Second Support Level: You can refer to the MA (99) moving average, currently about 2615.47. If the price effectively breaks below the first support, this position has some support reference in the past, but needs to be validated with real-time trends; additionally, from the intraday fluctuations, the 2550 - 2560 range can also be monitored as a possible minor support during the retreat.

III. Trading Ideas (High Risk, Strict Risk Control Required)

• Short Selling Idea (Cautious Reference, Need to Combine Real-Time Breakthrough Signals):
If the price rebounds to the short-term moving average (such as near MA7 2600.61) and faces pressure to retreat, and cannot break through the 2610 - 2620 range, you can try to short with a light position, setting a stop loss above 2625 (stop loss if breaking the short-term pressure), with a target first looking at 2550 - 2560, and if it breaks, look at 2524.

• Long Buying Idea (Need to Wait for Clear Signals):
If the price breaks through the 2620 - 2630 range with volume and stabilizes above the short-term moving average, you can try to go long with a light position, setting a stop loss below 2600, with a target looking at 2650 - 2680 (near the previous high); or wait for the price to effectively test the 2550 - 2560 support and show a clear stabilization signal (such as a volume bullish candle, indicator divergence), and then consider buying low, with a stop loss below 2524.

IV. Key Reminders

Cryptocurrency is highly volatile, strongly influenced by news (policies, industry dynamics, etc.) and capital flow. Always use stop losses and control positions (suggested light positions for trial, total position not exceeding 10%). At the same time, keep a close eye on the trends and volume changes of larger cycles (1 hour, 4 hours), and adjust strategies promptly in case of sudden good/bad news.

Brothers wait for $ETH to retrace to the 2620-2640 range before entering more.

First take profit: 2665
Second take profit: 2700

The current trend is bullish, so be sure to follow the market trend and do not blindly short!

Cryptocurrency is highly volatile! Strict stop-loss is required to avoid holding positions. Before making decisions, fully assess your own risk tolerance, and after making a profit, you can gradually roll over your positions. Avoid large single losses that affect your mindset!

6.17 ETH Trend Analysis

• Trend: Currently, based on the 15-minute candlestick chart combined with the Bollinger Bands (BOLL), the price is operating above the middle band, showing some upward momentum. However, after touching the upper band (2643.11), some fluctuations occurred. Analyzing the 24-hour data, there was a rise from the low of 2490.45 during the day, and it is currently in a phase of consolidation after a rebound. If it can stabilize in the current range, there is a possibility of attempting to break the previous 24-hour high of 2656.00; however, if the bullish strength is insufficient, there is a risk of retracing to the middle band (2636.44) or even the lower band (2629.76).
• Resistance Level: The first resistance level is the current upper band of the Bollinger Bands at 2643.11. If broken, the significant resistance above is the 24-hour high of 2656.00. If further broken, previous key resistances (such as relative highs in the earlier trend, which are not fully reflected in the long-term trend shown in the chart, can be judged in conjunction with more cycles) can be monitored; the second resistance level can be noted near the psychological and technical barrier of 2700.
• Support Level: The first support level is the middle band of the Bollinger Bands at 2636.44. If effectively broken, the lower support can be seen at 2622.89 (recent small platform support), and further down, the important support is the intraday low of 2490.45, which is a strong support point for bullish sentiment.
Trading Suggestions (High Risk, Strict Stop Loss and Take Profit Required)
• Long Strategy: If the price retraces near the middle band of 2636.44 and shows candlestick stabilization signals (such as small bullish candles, doji, etc.), a light position can be attempted to go long, with a stop loss set below 2622.89 (for example, at 2620). The take profit can initially look at 2656.00, and after breaking, it can be adjusted to the range of 2680 - 2700, while dynamically adjusting based on real-time trends and capital conditions.
• Short Strategy: If the price near 2656.00 repeatedly attempts to break through without success, and bearish candlestick patterns such as long upper shadows or bearish engulfing appear, a light position can be taken to go short, with a stop loss set above 2660 (for example, at 2665). The take profit can initially look at 2636.44, and if broken, it can be adjusted to the range of 2622.89 - 2600.