6.19 8:530 ETH Trend#eth

Technical Analysis and Trend Prediction

From the 15-minute K-line view:

• In the BOLL indicator, Upper Bound (UB:2542.67), Middle Bound (2519.56), Lower Bound (2496.46); MACD continues with red bars (MACD:0.84), in the short term, bulls have the upper hand, but beware of overbought pullbacks.

• Trend Analysis:

◦ Upside Breakout: If it breaks out above 2542.67 (UB) with volume, and the news supports it (like legislative progress, confirmation of interest rate cuts), it may test the 24h new high (2553.20) in the short term, further opening up upside space (targets can focus on previous key resistances, such as around 2600 USDT).

◦ Encounter Resistance and Fall Back: If it meets resistance at 2542.67, or due to negative news (like legislative delays, macro data falling short of expectations), the price is likely to fall back, with lower support to watch at 2519.56 (Middle Bound) → 2496.46 (Lower Bound). In extreme cases, it may test 2464.30 (24h Low).

Operation Points and Strategy (Multiple Long/Short Positions, with Stop Loss and Take Profit)

Bullish Strategy (Short-term, Following the Trend)

• Entry Conditions:

◦ Break above 2542.67 with increased volume, or if the news releases clear positive signals (like stablecoin legislation passing, interest rate cuts materializing), one can lightly chase long.

◦ If it tests 2519.56 (Middle Bound) and stabilizes, and MACD does not show significant weakness, one can gradually buy low (e.g., building positions in the 2520 - 2525 range).

• Target Level:

◦ First Target: 2553.20 (24h New High, after breaking look for 2560 - 2580);

◦ Second Target: If macro/eco favorable conditions continue, aim for 2600 - 2650 (previous range resistance).

• Stop Loss Level:

◦ Chase Long Stop Loss: Set at 2535 - 2540 (if it breaks below after a breakout pullback, bullish momentum weakens);

◦ Buy Low Stop Loss: Set at 2500 - 2510 (if it breaks below the Middle Bound and MACD turns green, exit to avoid risks).

Short Strategy (Betting on Pullback, Light Position Testing Short)

• Entry Conditions:

◦ If the price encounters resistance and falls back at 2542.67, and MACD shows a top divergence, KDJ is overbought and turning down, one can lightly test short (e.g., opening short in the 2540 - 2545 range).

◦ If negative news breaks out (such as regulatory tightening, negative macro data), if the price falls below 2519.56 (Middle Bound), additional short positions can be added.

• Target Level:

◦ First Target: 2496.46 (Lower Bound, Test Support Strength);

◦ Second Target: If the Lower Bound is lost, watch for 2464.30 (24h Low) → near 2450 (previous low range).

• Stop Loss Level:

◦ Short Stop Loss: Set at 2550 - 2555 (if it breaks the 24h new high, the short position becomes invalid);

◦ Adding Position Stop Loss: Set at 2520 - 2525 (if it recovers the Middle Bound, the pullback ends).

Risk Warning

1. Sudden Change in News: The crypto market is highly sensitive to policies and macro data. If U.S. stablecoin legislation faces obstacles or interest rate cut expectations fail, it may lead to significant ETH volatility, requiring timely stop loss/take profit.

2. Leverage Risk: Perpetual contracts come with leverage; high leverage amplifies both profits and losses. It is recommended to control the leverage ratio within 5 times (newcomers should be cautious with leverage).

3. Market Liquidity: In extreme market conditions, trading platforms may experience slippage or spikes; sufficient margin should be reserved to avoid forced liquidation.

Operations must be adjusted dynamically in conjunction with real-time news and technical analysis, strictly execute stop loss and take profit, prioritize small positions for trial and error, and then adjust positions based on trends, respecting the high volatility risk of the crypto market.